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So I had a good apr, mar, may, jun, then july came. Much of what I'd built up in the previous months was wiped out in July -I was doing my same old thing I think, but it wasn't working anymore. What I'm wondering is, was it me, was I doing something different, or had the market changed? Does anyone else recognise things being different the last 6 weeks or so? I trade the Dax btw, and this week has seemingly started to work again. Also, I'm aware that summer is supposed to have a liquidity drain, but I don't notice a significant reduction in weekly/monthly volume.
Anyone recognise similar periods in their own experience, if so, how do you handle it?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
You can use the extensive search tools on the forum, you will see that several people have go through this cycle sooner or later, and they give you their take.
Specifically about DAX, perhaps @GFIs1 can chime in and share his considerable experience.
I had a shitty July too , one of the most red days I've had in a long time, got lucky a few days and made my month. I noticed a few things ( i trade the es)
1) things were slower and I was over trading
2) vix seemed to be low
3) I ended up taking the first week off because of the 4th and that screwed me, I was out of touch with the market and just overall felt lost
What I did to fix it mid month was pay more attention to the vix and stop trading other contracts besides the ES... for me the switching back to only one pony in the race has always helped.
I agree with you the vol was on pair for an average month from what I remember
-P
"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie"-Miyamoto Musashi
Interesting to have your perspective, and to hear your July was bad too. You seem to be saying that the conditions had changed, but maybe you hadn't yet adapted to them, but had you taken notice of certain things earlier, like the vix, that would have helped...
I trade a few strategies, things like initial balance, that rely on breaking of key levels, and then probably getting in on a pullback, but we were getting things like the high broken followed by the low way more than ususal. And what it felt like was 'the market' had pulled the 'fuck with retail traders switch', and there was nothing I could do about it. Then over the last week, when I'm thinking about packing it in, everything is behaving sweetly again.
I should probably, as you imply, identify the factors that indicate the conditions, maybe check the Dax volatility index for correlation...
Well thanks to @xplorer on behalf of @Mammal:
Systems may work fine (mine since 2012).
But summer months are very tricky - Jul/Aug because of low volumes and/or erratic moves - mostly made from the side of some politicians worldwide during unpleasant months as well ;D
If I am looking back on my past years - I should have omitted trading during July and August.
This is not true for my rules for the weeks during summer - as you can see on my journal.
Every week gave decent gains - without much effort.
You told to have seen still good volumes: but be aware that those are not behaving during the normal peaks.
To finish my lengthy note: It is often the best to stay @ the sidelines. Any trade can be too much in a moment of indecision of markets.
Believe me - stay with your rules and smell the weak market days.
(mine are Tuesday and Thursday which I do nearly never trade again).
Sir, you shame me into action I just wanted to talk about what I'd been through is all, I do appreciate all contribution, apologies if I caused offence, none intended. Thanks to @xplorer.
Fantastic to hear you've been profitable for so long GFIs1, have you modified the system at all in this time? I'm really interested in how markets might change, or not!
So whats going on in these months if the volume maintains. Maybe the type of trader is different? I suppose liquidity isn't the same thing as volume necessarily. But if liquidity lessens (causing more spikes/noise), size would have to increase to make up the shortfall, does this make sense?
That's got to be key. I suppose the thing for me now is to recognise these days, and have the discipline to stay out - even if its for weeks on end!
Just pointing to my own post again where I said that summer months are normally a pain.
It is partly true. But as economist I can tell you that last weeks were quite hot watching the shaky markets: It is all about certainty and the future. Will it be pampered and nothing harmful will happen?
This year we had some problem makers like politicians or Central Banks:
• FED changed the direction of the interest rate. Everyone believed to sail with the wind - suddenly it changed...
• CEB made no move to rise the interest rate - so the markets have not gotten any hint.
• the worldwide battle for rising taxes on imports are not a good path for rising indices - DT made it all flushing down
• outlooks on next months are spreading fear to the markets - that growth rate will turn into recession (which I believe)
• China and USA are keen to lower their own money - USA to lower the total debts, China to find new partners around the world.
As we can see - thanks to those "bubbles" that are not normally to see from July to September we had to wade through those stop killers.
When a storm is at the horizon - the normal guy has to sit at the sidelines while the professional surfer heads for the big waves.
As long uncertainty is in most markets - omit the short time trades - it might kill any account.
I just wanted to talk about what I'd been through is all, I do appreciate all contribution, apologies if I caused offence, none intended. Thanks to @