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Day trading - Considering throwing in the towel for good.


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Day trading - Considering throwing in the towel for good.

  #51 (permalink)
Howard Roark
Oslo Norway
 
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Tymbeline View Post
Hello again, Howard ...

Interesting thread, of course. I've hardly been online here for the last 2-3 months (been ill, long story, not worth repeating and not relevant anyway), but am recently back and have just read the whole thread all in one go (just explaining why I didn't comment earlier!).

I must say, this is exactly what I found myself thinking, quite strongly, as I read each page.

I'm also not sure it's worthwhile, but it's definitely what I'd be thinking about, in your situation.

I think it takes a lot of care, thought, research and planning (perhaps especially in the light of one or two recent events in the industry), but I strongly suspect that it can - with appropriate care - be worthwhile, and from all you've said, I think it's what I'd be considering in your situation, rather than considering throwing in the towel.

Thanks. Could be an option, but I have to say I'm a bit skeptical towards those firms in general as they don't seem to have an interest in actually funding traders. I saw that MyForexFunds took home $310 (!) million in fees alone, so that's where the money is. Honestly, that number blew my mind. I had not imagined they'd be pulling home that much money on fees alone.

I've no doubt that a larger capital base would improve my situation greatly. I've talked to and heard of several traders who started out with $500K accounts and a year of savings. And here I am with my $5K account.

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  #52 (permalink)
Howard Roark
Oslo Norway
 
Posts: 439 since Aug 2018
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HumbleTrader View Post
Your focus seems to be on winning 'days'. You may have other performance metrics like RR, PF, MAE, MFE but have not shared yet. I would say those boring stats are far far more useful than ego boosting 'winning days'. I am glad that you are shifting your focus on the 'winners' and letting them run. That became the game changer for me.

Take my suggestions with a pinch of salt as I became profitable only 2 years ago after trying partime for 7+ years. I am yet to cross 10k annual profit barrier (but has >50k passive income and a 6 figure regular job).

My inspiration came from widely followed @GFIs1 thread in this site. Main take aways for me are

1. Day-trading does NOT have to be over-trading.
2. End of the day or fixed time targets can be very profitable.
3. Most important one is 'Losers should be smaller (often much smaller) than winners.

Good Luck. We need it. Lots of it.

Thanks. Good points.

Especially point 1) is one I'm working on and still improving. Generally, I like to call it a day if I'm up decently after the first 30/60 minutes. This is also partially motivated by the fact that I have a full time regular job.

I did the 40-50 hour workweeks in my regular day job + the full US session every single day in the past, but it's just not sustainable long term. I will take the occasional full session, but generally I try not to.

I'll see if maybe I can pull up some of the other statistics you mentioned as well. I'm at a new computer and most of my trading history is archived there. But I do of course keep track of all those statistics, too. Simplistically, the most important metric in my book is your net P&L curve, though, and a daily one seems fine with me.

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  #53 (permalink)
 
Tymbeline's Avatar
 Tymbeline 
Leeds UK
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Howard Roark View Post
Thanks. Could be an option, but I have to say I'm a bit skeptical towards those firms in general as they don't seem to have an interest in actually funding traders.


Some clearly don't.

I believe others do.

But of course there's a world of difference between futures funding companies and spot-forex/CFD "funding" companies like MFF, just as there's a world of difference between futures and CFD's: futures are a real, transparent market in which all brokers have the same prices for the same financial instruments, and one can easily tell, objectively and reliably, whether one is trading a real or a sim account.



Howard Roark View Post
I saw that MyForexFunds took home $310 (!) million in fees alone, so that's where the money is. Honestly, that number blew my mind. I had not imagined they'd be pulling home that much money on fees alone.


Neither had I.

"Fees alone" are their sole income, aren't they?

Even the complaint by the regulator acknowledges that they paid out $173 Mil of that $310 Mil income to their traders. To my mind, one irony there is that out of deposits of $310 Mil, no spot forex "brokerage" would be paying out anything like $173 Mil - only a very small fraction of that.

There seems to me to be some similarity between what it's being alleged MFF did and what FXCM did (that finally got them kicked out of the US when it turned out that they themselves owned the so-called liquidity provider to whom the trades of their "STP clients" were "processed" and that their clients had been dishonestly treated by that liquidity provider).

The MFF case itself has not been heard yet, of course: for now there's only a preliminary, temporary asset-freezing order in case the regulator's allegations turn out at subsequent court hearings to be substantially correct (I suspect they might well, myself, as they seem to me to be based largely on inside information, some of it apparently documented, from a whistleblower). Anyway, I don't think this is relevant to the reality that some futures funding companies (e.g. Topstep, Tradeday) do open genuine, funded futures accounts (sub-accounts) for the customers who pass the "try-out".

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  #54 (permalink)
Howard Roark
Oslo Norway
 
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Tymbeline View Post
Some clearly don't.

I believe others do.

But of course there's a world of difference between futures funding companies and spot-forex/CFD "funding" companies like MFF, just as there's a world of difference between futures and CFD's: futures are a real, transparent market in which all brokers have the same prices for the same financial instruments, and one can easily tell, objectively and reliably, whether one is trading a real or a sim account.

Agreed. However, keep in mind that many or even most of these futures funding companies have you trading on the simulator even after you're 'funded'.

Because of that, there's an incentive for those firms to not pay successful traders. I'm not saying that will happen, but I'm suspicious when that is the case.

I think only Topstep and E2T puts you on an actual live account.

From what I can tell, those two are the best alternatives for that very reason. In addition to not having any rules on withdrawals (unlike Apex and similar where your money is basically on a lock-up period - I suspect to increase the chances of you blowing up in the meanwhile).


Tymbeline View Post
Neither had I.

"Fees alone" are their sole income, aren't they?

Even the complaint by the regulator acknowledges that they paid out $173 Mil of that $310 Mil income to their traders. To my mind, one irony there is that out of deposits of $310 Mil, no spot forex "brokerage" would be paying out anything like $173 Mil - only a very small fraction of that.

There seems to me to be some similarity between what it's being alleged MFF did and what FXCM did (that finally got them kicked out of the US when it turned out that they themselves owned the so-called liquidity provider to whom the trades of their "STP clients" were "processed" and that their clients had been dishonestly treated by that liquidity provider).

The MFF case itself has not been heard yet, of course: for now there's only a preliminary, temporary asset-freezing order in case the regulator's allegations turn out at subsequent court hearings to be substantially correct (I suspect they might well, myself, as they seem to me to be based largely on inside information, some of it apparently documented, from a whistleblower). Anyway, I don't think this is relevant to the reality that some futures funding companies (e.g. Topstep, Tradeday) do open genuine, funded futures accounts (sub-accounts) for the customers who pass the "try-out".

I don't have sufficient knowledge to answer, but yes, I would think fees are their sole income.

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  #55 (permalink)
 
Tymbeline's Avatar
 Tymbeline 
Leeds UK
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Howard Roark View Post
I think only Topstep and E2T puts you on an actual live account.


Topstep, E2T and Tradeday all give you a choice, when you pass, of whether you want Live or Live-Sim (but reserve the right to move you from Live-Sim to Live at some point, too).

There are one or two others, too, I think. But I'm sure more are sim only, as you say.



Howard Roark View Post
From what I can tell, those two are the best alternatives for that very reason.


I hear you there - though drawdown limits that trail open equity, time-limits to qualify, and withdrawal strings and catches can be pretty significant to many people, too.



Howard Roark View Post
... unlike Apex and similar where your money is basically on a lock-up period - I suspect to increase the chances of you blowing up in the meanwhile).


That's my reading of it, too (though I wouldn't touch them anyway, myself, for other reasons).

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  #56 (permalink)
Howard Roark
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Tymbeline View Post
That's my reading of it, too (though I wouldn't touch them anyway, myself, for other reasons).

Is that Apex or 'get funded' firms in general? May I ask why?

For what it's worth, I actually signed up with E2T yesterday. They are currently running a huge discount, so I figured it was well worth the potential upside.

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  #57 (permalink)
Average Joe
Singapore
 
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Howard Roark View Post
I've been at this for well over 10 years. Periodically full-time and pretty much all my free time when not (weekends, evenings, etc.).

I don't think I could not have enjoyed the process if that was the case. I'd given up much sooner.

However, at the end of the day, the goal is to eventually be making money. Hence my doubts.

I feel you. Perhaps you could take 1 year break and then come back and look at the market again with a pair of fresh eyes. There is this beautiful poetry in Chinese which I now attempt to kill; Initially, you look at the mountain as mountain. 2nd time, you look at the mountain but it does not look like mountain. Finally, you look at the mountain as it is.

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results"

Good luck to you and apologies for the poor English.

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  #58 (permalink)
 
Tymbeline's Avatar
 Tymbeline 
Leeds UK
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Average Joe View Post
There is this beautiful poetry in Chinese which I now attempt to kill; Initially, you look at the mountain as mountain. 2nd time, you look at the mountain but it does not look like mountain. Finally, you look at the mountain as it is.


This somehow reminds me of some lines by T.S. Eliot (from Little Gidding):-

We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time.




Howard Roark View Post
Is that Apex or 'get funded' firms in general?


I just meant Apex (of which I'm slightly mistrustful, myself, as we discussed once before?).




Howard Roark View Post
For what it's worth, I actually signed up with E2T yesterday. They are currently running a huge discount, so I figured it was well worth the potential upside.


I see what you mean - good luck, and good wishes for that! (I agree: that does look quite appealing!).

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  #59 (permalink)
Billiius Hwangus
San Diego, California
 
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Howard Roark View Post
There have been some breaks along the way and I've sort of given up earlier, but the markets have always sucked me back in. For the last 5 or 6 years I've been focusing on essentially the same method and have not been jumping from one thing to the other. I've had a very focused approach and I've felt I made progress, but maybe I'm
I've had really good periods where I've both tripled and quadrupled my account over a period of months with few losing days. But invariably, the drawdown comes and it tends to accelerate and I just liquidate my account before it's all gone. Then I start over again a bit later and tend to do well early on, but the same pattern tends to repeat.

If I never had any success I'm sure I'd given up sooner, but the fact that I've had glimpses of success along the way and feel that I'm able to read the markets supported by statistical data have given me enough hope that maybe I have something worthwhile and shouldn't give up just yet.

A simple, rhetorical question with arbitrary numbers, where would you be now if you had repeatedly doubled accounts then pulled out half the profit and never risked that again?

I've been at a similar if not exactly the same point, more than once.

In general, improving risk management and money management was what got me past it.

Where would you be right now if you had regularly pulled a certain percentage of profits out and never risked them again?

What if you had stopped actively trading after a certain amount of account drawdown, say 10 to 25% just to be specific, then analyzed your trades to see what was causing the losses and making adjustments before making low-risk trades again until your back to break-even, essentially, never blowing an account?

You certainly have a trading strategy with an edge since you've repeatedly tripled and quadrupled accounts, but you need to improve your psychology and risk/money management strategy to retain enough of those profits and to preserve enough trading capital to be able to continue generating profits

A quote I often recall goes something like this... the goal of trading is minimizing losses rather than maximizing profits.

(I'm on a phone, sorry for typos or disorganization... hopefully I wrote something helpful.)

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  #60 (permalink)
Howard Roark
Oslo Norway
 
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Average Joe View Post
I feel you. Perhaps you could take 1 year break and then come back and look at the market again with a pair of fresh eyes. There is this beautiful poetry in Chinese which I now attempt to kill; Initially, you look at the mountain as mountain. 2nd time, you look at the mountain but it does not look like mountain. Finally, you look at the mountain as it is.

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results"

Good luck to you and apologies for the poor English.

Thanks for your comment. And no worries about your English which is great.


Tymbeline View Post
I just meant Apex (of which I'm slightly mistrustful, myself, as we discussed once before?).

I see what you mean - good luck, and good wishes for that! (I agree: that does look quite appealing!).

I understand. Yes, I think we discussed it once earlier.

Thanks a lot!

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