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Below are my comments on other markets I have been following closely this week.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil held above the 200 SMA this week bouncing strongly from this level towards the end of the week but prices still remain below the 61.8% retracement levels.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil appears to have broken the 61.8% retracement of the recent range this week but was unable to close above the psychological $50 level for the week. If prices come back to re-test the 61.8% retracement level I may look at taking a long position.
ZN – 10 Year Note
The 10 Year Note traded lower each day this week moving down towards the 200 SMA. If prices can break this level it may provide a good selling opportunity.
HG – Copper
Copper failed at the 61.8% retracement of the recent range early in the week but held above the 200 SMA.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Corn looked to have completed an inverted head and shoulders bottom early in the week but prices have come back to re-test the completion level at the end of the week.
SB – Sugar
Sugar prices traded both above and below the 161.8% extension level this week but have not yet provided any clues that the uptrend is near an end at this stage.
SI – Silver
Silver prices also collapsed this week but unlike Gold held above the 200 SMA. It may be a better alternative to trade Silver rather than Gold from the long side at present.
DX- US Dollar Index
The US Dollar broke above the 200 SMA this week but still remains below the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range. If prices can exceed this level it may present a good buying opportunity.
Trade: Short 8 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar Average Entry Price: 99.07
Risk: 99.105 risking $725
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars continued their move lower today and are now back at the bottom of the recent range.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of December Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.5480
Risk: $0.4720 risking $0
Target: $0.3750
Daily Comment: Hogs were lower today but finished off the lows posting a candle with a lower shadow.
QG – Mini Natural Gas
Trade: Long 3 contracts of November Mini Natural Gas
Average Entry Price: $2.90
Risk: $3.085 risking $0
Target: $3.32
Daily Comment: Natural Gas continued higher today making new highs for the move and posting another bullish candle.
Below are the comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZL - Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil was higher today trading up through the 61.8% retracement level. I am looking for a close above 34 for confirmation that this level has been broken.
GC – Gold
Gold continued to interact with the 200 SMA during the session finishing the day slightly higher and continuing to suggest that the uptrend may still be intact.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil was strongly higher today bouncing from the 61.8% retracement level during the overnight session to finish the day at new highs for the move. I was tossing up how close to the 61.8% retracement level I should enter my order and was looking at either $49.05 or $49.15 and decided to push it as far as possible and go with $49.05 so of course the low of the day was $49.15 and my order didn’t get filled and I missed the move today.
ZN – 10 Year Notes
The 10 Year Notes were lower today with the low of the day just above the 200 SMA.
I re-entered my Long position in Gold and entered a new long position in Soybean Oil today.
GE – Eurodollar
Trade: Short 8 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar Average Entry Price: 99.07
Risk: 99.085 risking $300
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars were unchanged today and still remain in the recent range.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of December Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.5480
Risk: $0.4720 risking $0
Target: $0.3750
Daily Comment: Hogs were higher today but finished the day unchanged posting an indecisive doji candle.
QG – Mini Natural Gas
Trade: Long 3 contracts of November Mini Natural Gas
Average Entry Price: $2.90
Risk: $3.145 risking $0
Target: $3.35
Daily Comment: Natural Gas was initially higher posting new highs for the move before turning lower to post an indecisive candle.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,258.50
Risk: $1,242.75 risking $787
Target: Long Term $1,619
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices intersected with the rising 200 SMA for the first time since prices broke through this level.
Fundamental: Uncertainty over Central Bank policies has been driving the Gold price higher.
Daily Comment: Gold continued to interact with the 200 SMA today but finished the day lower. It could still go either way at this stage but if the US Dollar continues to find strength its most likely the next move in Gold will be to the downside.
ZL - Soybean Oil
Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Soybean Oil
Average Entry Price: $0.3385
Risk: $0.3323 risking $750
Target: $0.40
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices have traded up through a rising 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement levels of the most recent major and minor ranges.
Fundamental: Supply issues with competing vegetable oils have been driving Soybean Oil higher.
Daily Comment: I tried to cover my bases today with an order back at the 61.8% retracement level if prices corrected and an order slightly above the 34 level if prices continued to rise. Prices initially continued higher above the 34 level triggering my order before turning lower and trading back down through the 61.8% retracement level triggering my other order. Prices finished the day below the 61.8% retracement levels posting a bearish candle but still remain above the short and medium term moving averages.
I am now overweight into a USDA supply and demand report which was not my intention and I will need to manage the trade carefully leading into the report.
Below are the comments on the opportunities I am watching.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil was lower today posting an indecisive doji candle.
ZN – 10 Year Notes
The 10 Year Notes finished slightly higher today but continue to move towards the 200 SMA.
HG – Copper
Copper traded back up to the 61.8% retracement level yesterday but was unable to surpass this level today trading lower. Prices bounced from the 20 SMA to finish the day off the lows posting a candle with a lower shadow.
DX - US Dollar Index
The US Dollar continued higher today surpassing the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and signalling the potential for higher prices to come.
I exited my positions in Lean Hogs and Soybean Oil and added to my Eurodollars position today.
GE – Eurodollar
Trade: Short 10 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar Average Entry Price: 99.065
Risk: 99.085 risking $375
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars were lower during the session but bounced near the recent lows to finish the day slightly higher. I added to the position at the close to make the position an even 10 contracts.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of December Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.5480
Exit Price: $0.4430
Trade Grade: 4.5/5
Daily Comment: Hogs were higher today pushing above the 44 level which has been providing resistance and closed near the highs so I have exited the trade for now. I still see Hogs prices going lower so I’ll be looking to re-enter the trade when the right opportunity presents itself.
QG – Mini Natural Gas
Trade: Long 3 contracts of November Mini Natural Gas
Average Entry Price: $2.90
Risk: $3.125 risking $0
Target: $3.35
Daily Comment: Natural Gas was lower again today but posted another indecisive candle.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,258.50
Risk: $1,242.75 risking $787
Target: Long Term $1,619
Daily Comment: Gold traded in a small range today posting an indecisive candle but still remains below the 200 SMA. I still think it could go either way at this point.
ZL - Soybean Oil
Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Soybean Oil
Average Entry Price: $0.3385
Exit Price: $0.3339
Trade Grade: 1/5
Trade Comment: A really bad trade with poor entries. I was lucky to get a chance to reduce the size of the loss today.
Daily Comment: Soybean Oil traded higher after the release of the USDA report trading back above the 61.8% retracement levels but faded into the close to close back below these levels and post a candle with a long upper shadow. The initial price action after the report convinced me to stick with the position even though I had a chance to exit at break-even but the price action into the close was negative and I decided to exit and take the loss before it has the chance to grow any bigger.
Trade: Short 10 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar Average Entry Price: 99.065
Risk: 99.085 risking $475
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars continued higher today back into the middle of the recent range.
QG – Mini Natural Gas
Trade: Long 3 contracts of November Mini Natural Gas
Average Entry Price: $2.90
Exit Price: $3.35
Trade Grade: 4/5
Trade Comment: A good trade which met its target. A shame about the execution mistake with the last 2 contracts which could have made it a great trade. The market still looks bullish and will be looking to re-enter if the 161.8% extension is surpassed.
Daily Comment: Natural Gas was lower during the overnight session before bouncing strongly after the storage data was released. Prices met the target at the 161.8% extension level on the main Natural Gas chart but prices were unable to close above this level.
QO - Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,258.50
Risk: $1,242.75 risking $787
Target: Long Term $1,619
Daily Comment: Gold rallied during the overnight session after the week Chinese trade data but prices finished off the highs posting a candle with an upper shadow. Prices remain above the $1,250 level but have not been able regain the ground above the 200 SMA indicating it could still go either way from here.
Below are the comments on the opportunities I’m watching.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs continued higher today but finished off the day’s highs posting a candle with an upper shadow. I’m currently looking at the 20 SMA which is moving through the 261.8% extension level as a possible area to re-enter.
ZL - Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil continued lower today but found support above the 200 SMA retracing all of the days fall and posting a doji candle with a long lower shadow.
KC – Coffee
Coffee surpassed the 61.8% retracement level again at the start of the week and this time the 40 SMA is moving through this level to provide further support. If prices re-test the 61.8% retracement level again I will look to enter.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil traded lower after the storage report was released but found support above the 61.8% retracement level and turned around to finish the day higher posting a candle with a lower shadow and closing back above the psychological $50 level.
Trade: Short 10 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar Average Entry Price: 99.065
Risk: 99.085 risking $475
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars continued higher today posting a bullish candle but remain in the middle of the recent range.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,258.50
Risk: $1,242.75 risking $787
Target: Long Term $1,619
Daily Comment: Gold was lower today posting a bearish candle but held the $1,250 level.
Below are the comments on the opportunities I’m watching.
HE – Lean Hogs
The rally in Hogs appears to have been short lived with prices falling sharply today to close the week with a bearish candle. I’ll be looking to re-enter Hogs next week.
ZL - Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil rose sharply today trading back up through the 61.8% retracement levels posting a very bullish candle.
KC – Coffee
Coffee rose sharply today posting a bullish candle and appears to have now broken the 61.8% retracement level.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas was unable to surpass the 161.8% extension level today turning lower and posting a bearish candle.
- Re-entered a long position in Mini Gold
- Entered and stopped out of a long position in Soybean
- Exited my short position in Lean Hogs.
- Exited my long position in Mini Natural Gas.
- Added to my short position in Eurodollars.
I’ll start the weekly update with comments on my open positions and closed trades.
GE - Eurodollar
Eurodollars traded back to the bottom of the recent range in the middle of the week and bounced from this level to finish the week in the middle of the range.
GC – Gold
Gold finished the week slightly lower remaining below the 200 SMA but continuing to find support around the $1,250 level.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs rallied for the most of the week before retracing all of the gains on Friday to continue the bearish trend. I’ll look to re-establish a short position this week and I’ve been having a look at some of the forward month charts to see which contract offers the best opportunity. I’m leaning towards the Feb contract at the moment as it’s at the 261.8% retracement level and the 20 SMA.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas was lower early in the week coming to re-test the recent highs but bounced from this level to reach the initial target at the 161.8% extension level. Prices backed off from this level to finish the week and I will look to re-enter if this level can be surpassed.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil had a volatile week trading sharply higher and lower during the week. Prices finished the week extremely strongly surpassing both the 61.8% retracement levels with impulsiveness. With 2 losing trades in this market already I am only willing to give this trade one more shot and I need to see further confirmation of an uptrend before entering a position. At the moment I am focused on the potential long term head and shoulders bottom on the weekly chart with a neckline at 35.30 and will be looking at taking a position on a close above this level.
