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I was away on holidays this week so I wasn’t monitoring the markets regularly. While on holidays I entered hard stops on all positions and cancelled any open entry orders.
Weekly Comment: The Euro pushed up towards the 50 SMA early in the week but could not surpass this level again. Prices fell sharply on Thursday closing below the recent lows and the 100 SMA after a very dovish stance by the ECB in relation to its bond buying program triggering my stop on half the position. I am happy to hold the original half of the position while prices remain above the 200 SMA.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of December Micro Canadian Dollar
Average Entry Price: $0.7745
Exit Price: $0.7856
Result: -0.87R
Weekly Comment: The Loonie fell sharply on Wednesday closing below the recent lows and the 100 SMA after a very dovish stance from the BOC when leaving rates on hold triggering my stop on the second half of my position. I am happy to hold the original position while prices remain above the 200 SMA.
NK225M – Mini Nikkei
Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,220
Stop: 18,890
Weekly Comment: The Nikkei continued to power ahead this week despite a brief stumble in the middle of the week closing above the 22,000 level on Friday. I may look to add to this position on any pullback to the 20 SMA.
CC – Cocoa
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Cocoa
Entry Price: $2,055
Stop: $1,997
Weekly Comment: Cocoa was lower early in the week but bounced from the 20 SMA to finish the week back near the top of the recent range.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZS - Soybean
Soybeans continued lower this week and the decision to exit the trade early last Friday turned out to be the right one.
CL – Crude Oil
Crude drifted higher this week before rallying strongly on Friday and looks like it may have taken off without me.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso traded above and below the 200 SMA this week finishing the week just below this level. I may look at taking a long position on a strong close back above the 200 SMA.
6L – Brazilian Real
The Real traded back down to the 200 SMA this week but finished the week above this level. If prices trade down through the 200 SMA with impulsiveness I may look at entering a short position.
ZN – 10 Year Notes
The Notes continued lower this week but bounced strongly on Friday to finish the week only slightly lower. The price action has not been convincing enough at this stage to enter a position.
Trade: Long 3 contracts of December Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Exit Price: 1.1725
Result: -1.04R
Weekly Comment: The Euro held above last week’s lows and attempted to move higher during the week but fell on Friday to finish the week only slightly higher.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of December Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Exit Price: $0.7856
Result: -0.87R
Weekly Comment: The Loonie continued lower early in the week but held above last week’s lows and bounced late in the week.
NK225M – Mini Nikkei
Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,220
Stop: 18,890
Weekly Comment: The Nikkei raced higher again on Wednesday on the back of strong earnings and continues to make new highs.
CC – Cocoa
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Cocoa
Entry Price: $2,055
Stop: $1,997
Weekly Comment: Cocoa was unable to break out of the top range early in the week before falling sharply on Thursday on the back of falls in the Pound but the 200 SMA has now flattened and the 50 SMA has crossed the 200 SMA.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZS - Soybean
Soybeans pushed back up to the 200 SMA and closed above this level on Thursday but fell back below the 200 SMA on Friday.
CL – Crude Oil
Crude traded in a sideways range for most of the week before breaking out to the upside on Friday and confirming the bullish momentum.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso traded back above the 200 SMA on Thursday but quickly fell back below this level on Friday. I’ll continue to wait for a strong close back above the 200 SMA to enter a long position.
6L – Brazilian Real
The Real dipped below the 200 SMA early in the week but quickly regained the ground back above this level by Thursday but fell sharply on Friday to close below the 200 SMA and trigger an entry. I’ll be looking to enter a short position on Monday.
6B – British Pound
The Pound fell sharply on Thursday after the BOE cuts rates but indicated a slower path for further hikes. If prices come back to the 200 SMA I may look at taking a long position.
ZN – 10 Year Notes
The Notes continued back up to the 200 SMA this week finishing the week just back above this level.
- Entered a short position in the Brazilian Real
- Entered a long position in London Cocoa
- Starting building a long position in Uranium Participation Corp
- Rolled my US Cocoa position from December to March
Below are comments on my open positions.
M6E – Euro
Trade: Long 3 contracts of December Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Stop: 1.131
Weekly Comment: The Euro made new lows early in the week before turning around to finish the week higher.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of December Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Exit Price: $0.7592
Weekly Comment: The Loonie continued its move higher this week reclaiming the ground above the 20 SMA.
NK225M – Mini Nikkei
Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,220
Stop: 18,890
Weekly Comment: The Nikkei continued its move higher early in the week. Prices were sharply higher during the day session on Thursday rising another 2% before turning around to finish the day lower by 1.5% on strong volume. This volatility blow out may signal a short term top is place so I was looking to exit half my position on Friday on any further weakness but the price held up fairly well so I am sticking with the entire position for now.
CC – US Cocoa
Trade: Long 1 contract of March Cocoa
Entry Price: $2,046
Stop: $1,888
Weekly Comment: Cocoa rallied strongly early in the week trading up to the March highs but found resistance at this level. Volume started moving to the March contract late in the week so I rolled the position at the close on Friday.
C – London Cocoa
Trade: Long 1 contract of December London Cocoa
Entry Price: $1,601
Stop: $1,557
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices surpassed the 200 SMA after a long downtrend.
Fundamental: World demand has been increasing with strong grindings data seen in both Europe and Asia. There is also talk of lower supplies from West Africa from the current harvest.
Reasons for Stop Placement: More than 1% below the 200 SMA.
Weekly Comment: London Cocoa closed above the 200 SMA on Monday but it was the close on Tuesday that triggered an entry. I entered at the open on Wednesday and prices continued higher for the week closing above the recent highs. The break out in the London contract provided an opportunity to pyramid my position.
6L – Brazilian Real
Trade: Short 1 contract of December Brazilian Real
Entry Price: $0.30335
Stop: $0.3105
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices broke down through the 200 SMA after a long uptrend.
Fundamental: An expected narrowing of the interest rate differential and continued political issues in Brazil have the potential for the US dollar to strengthen against the Real.
Reasons for Stop Placement: More than 1% above the 200 SMA and above the recent highs.
Weekly Comment: After triggering an entry last Friday the Real was higher on Monday and I took the opportunity to take a position. Prices traded above and below the 200 SMA for the remainder of the week but were unable to surpass the 20 SMA and finished the week just below the 200 SMA.
Technical: Prices gapped up above the 200 SMA after a long downtrend.
Fundamental: One of the largest producers Cameco announced that they were shutting their biggest mines for 10 months and removing 10-15% of global supply from the market.
Reasons for Stop Placement: More than 1% below the 200 SMA and below the gap.
Weekly Comment: Uranium stocks all exploded higher on Thursday on the back of the Cameco announcement. I didn’t take a position on Thursday as I was still researching my preferred method of executing the trade. I was tossing up between the URA ETF and U which is a closed end fund listed in Canada. I went with U as it gives me a position in the underlying commodity rather than the mining and exploration companies. I took a quarter position at the open on Friday and another quarter of the position at the close on Friday. I will look to enter the other half of the position next week.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZS - Soybean
Soybeans pushed back above the 200 SMA early in the week but quickly fell back below this level again on Thursday after a bearish USDA report but found support at the rising 50 SMA.
OJ – Orange Juice
After the volatility associated with the hurricane OJ seems to have found support above the 200 SMA and the average has now turned up and the 50 SMA has crossed above the 2000 SMA as well. I’m looking for a pullback to the 50 SMA to enter a long position.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas gapped higher on Monday on cold weather forecasts and continued higher for the rest of the week trading up towards the 200 SMA. If prices can surpass this level I may look at taking a long position.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso continues to hover around the 200 SMA but has not been able to break back above it. The longer prices remain in this pattern the less likely it is that this trade will be successful.
ZN – 10 Year Notes
The Notes climbed back above the 200 SMA during the week before falling sharply on Friday and closing back below this level. The price action on Friday was an entry trigger and I may look to enter this market next week.
Weekly Comment: Uranium retested the 200 SMA early in the week where I added to the position. Prices held the 200 SMA several times before bouncing strongly to finish the week at a new high for the move.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZS - Soybean
Soybeans fell sharply on Monday falling back below the 50 SMA but recovered later in the week to close back near the 200 SMA.
OJ – Orange Juice
OJ raced out of the gates to start the week but retraced all of the gains to finish the day lower. Prices initially dipped lower on Tuesday before turning around and moving higher for the remainder of the week. I am waiting for a pullback into the 50 SMA before contemplating a position.
SB – Sugar
Sugar has been moving higher recently and continued higher this week towards the 200 SMA for the first time since the downtrend began. I may look at entering a short position if prices reach the 200 SMA.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas fell back this week and looks like it wants to fill the gap left last week.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso looked like it had finally given up the fight with the 200 SMA on Wednesday but quickly rose back to finish the week back at this level.
ZN – 10 Year Notes
The Notes were unable to move any lower trading back up to the 200 SMA but were unable to surpass this level. The 50 SMA is close to trading down through the 200 SMA and I may look at taking a position if prices trade up near the 50 SMA again.
Trade: Long 3 contracts of December Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Stop: 1.131
Weekly Comment: The Euro dipped early in the week before rallying strongly to finish the week higher, surpassing the October highs and setting up a potential head & shoulders failure pattern.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of December Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Exit Price: $0.7592
Weekly Comment: The Loonie rallied in the middle of the week to regain the ground above the 20 SMA.
NK225M – Mini Nikkei
Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,220
Stop: 18,890
Weekly Comment: The Nikkei was slightly higher this week and continues to hold the 20 SMA.
CC – US Cocoa
Trade: Long 1 contract of March Cocoa
Entry Price: $2,046
Stop: $1,888
Weekly Comment: US Cocoa finished the week slightly lower but remains above the 50 SMA.
C – London Cocoa
Trade: Long 1 contract of March London Cocoa
Entry Price: $1,606
Stop: $1,588
Weekly Comment: London Cocoa gave up the 200 SMA on Monday. I faced a dilemma with this position as the roll gap from the December to March contract was unusually large and when this gap was added to my original stop level it resulted in a stop position that didn’t make sense for the trade. I allowed the trade a little more room but price continued lower for the remainder of the week. I will be looking to exit this position on Monday if prices do not bounce from here.
6L – Brazilian Real
Trade: Short 1 contract of December Brazilian Real
Entry Price: $0.30335
Stop: $0.3105
Weekly Comment: The Real was higher this week pushing back up above the 200 SMA but held the falling 50 SMA.
Weekly Comment: Uranium rose sharply higher early in the week but couldn’t push on any higher posting a number of indecisive candles to finish the week.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZS - Soybean
Soybeans broke back above the 200 SMA on Wednesday but did not follow through on Friday. I’m keeping an eye out for that catalyst to finally change the trend in this market.
ZO – Oats
Oats finished the week below the 200 SMA which is just starting to turn lower. This may be a good area to sell Oats.
OJ – Orange Juice
OJ dipped back slightly this week but still sits well above the 20 and 50 SMA’s.
SB – Sugar
Sugar finished higher again this week and is getting closer to the 200 SMA. I may look at entering a short position if prices intersect with the 200 SMA.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas closed the gap this week but was sharply lower to finish the week closing at new lows after reports of warmer weather. This market comes off the watch list for now.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso regained the ground above the 200 SMA on Tuesday and continued higher to finish the week well above the 200 SMA. I contemplated taking a position on Tuesday/Wednesday but decided against increasing my exposure to the US dollar and the NAFTA negotiations.
6J – Japanese Yen
The Yen traded up to the 200 SMA this week but was unable to surpass this level. A strong break above the 200 SMA and I may look at buying the Yen.
ZN – 10 Year Notes
The Notes traded back up towards the 200 SMA on Wednesday. With the 50 SMA crossing down through the 200 SMA I had an order at the intersection of these two averages at 124 30/32 which just didn’t get hit on Wednesday or Friday.
