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News:
Before Opening: (Personal Income and Outlays) within consensus range.
GMT +1: 16:00/ EST: 10:00 AM (ISM Mfg Index)
GMT +1: 20:00/ EST: 14:00 (Beige Book)
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: up (+1,9%)
Asia: up (+0.15% - +1,44%)
oil: neutral (+0,33%)
gold: neutral ( -0,96%)
Bonds: neutral (-0,34% - 0.0%)
Sentiment is up.
Higher TF charts Daily chart: YD was a TR day. We have broken above the major TCL.
60 min. chart (ETH):Overnight bull trend is a BO of the upper TR (after the strong bull trend in mid of feb)
Overninight: Bull trend on relative high volume. Market has made a new ATH. Today will open with a big bull gap.
S/R
Support:
2370,50 (prior month high + high of upper TR)
2351.50 (Low of upper TR)
2336.25 (DB bull flag, 60 min ETH + Low of lower TR)
Inital bias:
Strong BO of TR. Targets above around 2386. My inital bias is that we will test the targets above and then either have a PB or a test back in the TR.
Context Log
Big bull opening gap, BO, PB 2 ticks above VWAP, trend channel up. Strong climax on HTF charts.
No trades today.
Hindsight Thoughts
I'm of course rather disappointed that I didn't find a setup to enter in this strong trend. If you are sure that it is a strong trend, then it's ok to enter for any reason. But on the daily chart this is a climax, a BO above the major TCL. So a strong reversal back to the daily TL (250 points lower) may start any day. And I expected that the targets around 2386 would make the market stall.
So what would have been a good entry strategy today? The best resonable entry would have been the first strong BO bar at GMT +1: 16:00/EST 10:00 AM, with a SL at LoD = 4,25 point SL.
The next opportunity was the PB, 2 ticks above VWAP at GMT +1: 16:45/EST 10.45 AM, that I did consider. But since there were 4 consecutive bear bars I thought that there would be another push down, but it didn't happen. After this I belived the trend had gone to far. How did you reason about entering the trend during the first hours of today?
News:
Before Opening: (Jobless Claims) below consensus range, much lower than expected.
No more important news today.
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral (-0,10%)
Asia: up (-0.52% - +0,88%)
oil: down (-1,45%)
gold: neutral ( -0,92%)
Bonds: neutral (-0,41% - 0.0%)
Sentiment is neutral.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: YD was a trend day, a wide range day and a new ATH. We have broken above the major TCL, so this is climactic. But I assume we will have follow through after YD strong BO. The measured move of the Feb. 6 day bull spike at 2416.75 may be the next target.
60 min. chart (ETH): YD was a strong BO of the TR that almost hit the 60 min TCL. Overnight was a PB to the EMA 20.
30 min. chart (ETH): DT bear flag and H2 PB
Overninight: PB on relative high volume after YD new ATH.
S/R
Support:
2370,50 (prior month high + high of upper TR)
2351.50 (Low of upper TR)
2336.25 (DB bull flag, 60 min ETH + Low of lower TR)
Resistance:
2416,75 (Target on daily chart. Measured move of the Feb. 6 day bull spike)
Inital bias:
My inital bias is that we will have some kind follow through after YD big bull bar on the daily chart. The positive Jobless Claim report before opening may support this, (although there was almost no reaction when it was released).
Context Log
Big bear spike (first bar + bear spike at end of YD), L2 PB and bear channel.
Trade 1 (short, BO): 0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- L2 PB after big bear spike (first bar + bear spike at end of YD)
- Strong bear BO
- Climax on daily chart, TL hit on 60 min chart and lots of targets below (TR high, YD low, 60 min EMA20).
Trade Plan:
Target (MM of bear spike): 7,25 points
SL (high of Pb): 4 points
Reward-Risk-Ratio: 1,8
Comment: Since there was a chance that price would break down I chose to enter on the first strong BO after FT with a wide SL. I'm pleased with that I read the price action ok and managed to change my inital directional bias. A better entry would have been two bars earlier, before the BO, but I felt that I needed confirmation when I looked at the H2 PB on the 30min and 60 min ETH chart. Unfortunately I made an execution misstake and bought the market instead for the close of the BO. That made 1 tick difference and I was stopped out exactly to the tick at BE.
Hindsight Thoughts:
I'm happy with that I didn't buy the reversal bar after the big bear opening bar. Although my bias was long and this looked like a failed bear BO and possible opening reversal, the bear spike at the end of YD made that opening reversal setup unlikely.
Update: I see now that my entry was horrendus. This may have been the final flag (possible failed BO after a sideways PB) in a correction down. The next bar was a strong bull signal bar, a 2 bar reversal, and the right thing to do would have been to exit the trade.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: YD was a bear bar after a big bull BO bar, so this is a failed BO. We are still above the major TCL, so this is still climactic.
60 min. chart (ETH):Overnight has contimued to trade lower and last week TR is just below as well as the 60 min TL
30 min. chart (ETH): Three pushes down, (2 at end of YD and 1 during ON)
Overninight: New LL on relative high volume.
S/R
Support:
2370,50 (prior month high + high of upper TR)
2351.50 (Low of upper TR)
2336.25 (DB bull flag, 60 min ETH + Low of lower TR)
Inital bias:
My inital bias is that we will trade lower and test some of the targets below (prior TR high and 60 min TL around 2370.50,
Current Week low = Wednesday bull trend bar low at 2363.25)
Context Log
Opening reversal at 60 min EMA20, bear BO and continuation of YD bear channel. Reversal at LOD (but no obvious support?). Bull channel.
Trade 1 (short BO): 0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Strong BO (sell the close), AIS and continuation of YD bear channel
- Opening reversal at 60 min EMA 20 and possible HoD
- Inital bias was short and targets below
Comment: Ok entry. I do avoid BO entries, except for the first strong BO during the first hour since this may be the only entry on a strong trend day. I'ts a high probablity entry and usually possible get out at BE on TR days. I looks like it would be a good idea to add another contract on a PB, but I will focus on a single contract until I'm profitable.
Trade 2 (BoPb in TR, short): -1 point
Reasons for taking the trade:
- After exit of Trade 1 I did reenter on a DT bear flag at VWAP
Comment: I missread the priceaction and didn't pay enough attention to the two strong HL:s after the reversal at LOD since there was no strong bull BO. But it was obviously the start of a bull channel. Lesson: never forget to carefully read the PA perspective of the traders in the opposite direction.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We have started a PB after last Wednesday big bull BO bar to ATH. We are still above the major TCL, so this is still climactic.
60 min. chart (ETH): Bear channel and possible LL MTR at support (2370,75)
30 min. chart (ETH): Bear channel and possible LL MTR at support (2370,75)
Overninight: New LL on relative high volume and test of prior TR high (2370,75)
S/R
Support:
2370,50 (prior month high + high of upper TR)
2351.50 (Low of upper TR)
2336.25 (DB bull flag, 60 min ETH + Low of lower TR)
Inital bias:
My inital bias is that we will go higher after the LL MTR on the 60 min and 30 min chart. We may retest the area between support and overnight low (2368,75 - 2370,75) before the move up starts.
Context Log
Test of ON low, strong bull reversal bar, new LL, channel up.
Trade 1 (long, Orev): -2.5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Possible Opening Reversal + strong bull reversal bar
- LL MTR and DB on 30 min ETH chart
- Support (prior TR high)
- Bear bars had lower tails = buying preassure
Trade Plan
SL: 2.5 points
Target: 10 points
Reward-Risk-Ratio: 4.0
Comment: Ok planning. Did enter 1 tick worse than planned because I didn't know how the Stop-Limit order worked in the chart trader.
Trade 2 (long, MTR): +2,5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2nd entry MTR
- HL MTR
- BO + FT above VWAP
Trade Plan
SL: 2.5 points
Target (60 min EMA 20): 6 points
Reward-Risk-Ratio: 2.4
Comment: Ok planning. It may seem a bit late to enter on the BO, but prior to the BO it looked very much like aTR to me. Unfortunately I did exit at the very low in the PB, but after 4 consecutive bear bars this could have been a reversal, although the correct SL would have been at the low of the BO spike.
