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Sorry but to answer to your question, no I don't see it because the fx market exchanges are decentralized and there is no consolidated tape, so I can't see who's doing what. On any given day, I trade on a market view, but even moreso when trading currencies as I need to know the economic climate we're in.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Glad I got out of my long trades and sat on my hands. More of the same at 275 today. Again, what looks like a solid selling effort on the tape only to be bought right back again at the low and held. Not a whole lot of volume overall. I'm still thinking redistribution and will play it long again tomorrow if the tape looks ripe for it.
Quite a divergence this morning between the SPY and the ES, which tend to track each other pretty well. At this moment the SPY is trading almost $1 below its close price (which is the equivalent of about 5 ES points) whereas the ES is actually trading about 5 points over its close price. If someone doesn't arbitrage this in the pre-market, it's going to be a rough open.
I am eager to see the COT report from this past week although, conveniently, it will not show Wednesday and Thursday which are the days that I am most interested in. If in fact there is a transition taking place between speculators and commercial (wherein specs are selling their net long positions and commercials are buying their net short positions) we'll see it on the chart first in what looks like the continuation of the beginning of a bear market.
Having said that, if we can't hold the low today, I still assert that there is a large possibility that some entity has built a massive long position which would mean a run-up to 281 for liquidity and perhaps a challenge to the top of the market for ammunition to build into a big short position.
Mark Im a noob bear with me here. Are you saying that the 'bully' squeezes the out of the money calls or puts forcing them to close their positions? Woud you mind giving a scenario of this happening and what the intention of the 'bully' would be to do this? I dont see why the 'out of the money' traders matter, but I understand why 'the house' would want to prevent 'in the money' puts or calls from reaching their objective.
I'm not an options geek so perhaps I'm not using the correct terminology, feel free to correct me. Buying or selling out of the money calls or puts is extremely cheap and generate substantial return over at the money. So, if you have the wherewithal, why not buy up all the out of the money options at a discount and then force the market in that direction so that they expire in the money?
That is my running hypothesis for expiration days. What do you think?
Geez what a slow morning so far. I've been seeing some selling on the tape but the guy is exercising caution and letting out his line slowly, which is not normal for an aggressive seller. So for what it's worth, I'm long here with a stop underneath the last range.
