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I took the inside-out short after testing into fridays range and failing
As this move failed i took the outside-in long
Market made long moves in both directions
Market was two-sided
Market is in Balance
Second Moves do not make much sense in that balanced condition
Wait for condition shift before you expect second moves
Condition
We have a triple top on the daily
The market is in a multi-day-balance
We open slightly below that balance
oni is completely short and we open near the lows of the onr
Thoughts
The question as always is if we see a CONDITION CHANGE which would be continuation to the downside or if the condition stays intact
I will watch monthly vwap
We broke out of the smaller BALANCE
We see value clean lower
But we still see no real continuation or traction
We still see two-sided action which ends as a green daily rth candle
We are still inside of the bigger BALANCE AREA
As long as we stay inside of that i would expect a continuaton of that behaviour: Two sided action with long moves and even longer retracements
Do not get trapped in continuation trades
Adapt your behaviour strictly to the market environment
The market moves a long way in one direction (to shake people out) (and lure people in) only to reverse and move the whole distance and more back
Condition
6 week balance
6 day balance
We open inside of both with a gap up
Thoughts
As we we open in the middle of the bigger balance area i do not expect much opportunity
Looks like we have to balance out this whole thing
Normally we would expect a travel through the whole balance area to make some trouble at the bottom
If that doesnt happen the balance area could compress and one day we see a breakout
Very choppy in the beginning
As they hold the gap i became bullish
Felt as if they want to shake out and then rise and leave an island gap behind
I had to leave for an appointment so i gave the trade room but the market took my stop
Condition
We are still in that 6 week balance area
Thoughts
We produced an inflection point below us on the daily
Will be interesting to see what happens at the top of the balance area
This inflection is bullish but we already moved a good way
Objectives
We open with a (at the moment) small gap up on top of yesterdays spike
oni is long
we had some retracement from the overnight high
I decided to take a step back and take a position early (in a pullback) to speculate on a breakout from 6 week balance
This was no 4 of trying to get through this area and we had a nice inflection point below us so i thought that chances are not bad
Classical trendday with very clean one time framing
Condtition
Breaking out of 6 week balance otf up on the daily
In the cash markets we see all time highs
We open with a small gap up on 100% long oni in the middle of the onr
Thoughts
As long as the breakout remains intact this is very bullish
We moved a good portion in two days so inventory is getting longer and longer
Generally spoken, pullbacks are buyable
