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Not sure i understand the spread on this product. What difference does it make if you click Yes i believe price will close above 3950? Why would you need to take the spread into consideration ? I must miss something.
In theory, I agree with you @trendisyourfriend. In practice, the spread can widen quite a bit. As an example, you may have a call price of $11.50 that you can just lift and be long that strike for a $20 max gain. But as soon as you enter, your P&L might be -$2.50 because of the spread. This means that the market has to move enough directionally AND overcome time decay just to cover that $2.50 spread. This is for an At-The-Money Event Contract. $2.50 on $20 is a 12.5% difference
Instead, I bid $10 or $9.50 for that call and wait to get hit instead since I might have conviction in it closing above the strike. I'm simply choosing not to pay up because that spread can be hard to overcome depending on where the market is.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
The following user says Thank You to FuturesTrader71 for this post:
Do you know if we can see the historical probabilities say on a 5 minute interval or whatever interval. For example, at 14h00 ET Yesterday the 15 min bar closed at 4005.5 so what was the probability at that time to see price close below 4000 at the end of the day? Can we get this info?
For example, today at around 10:00 ET for the ES, the probability to see price close below 4100 was favorable. Given the activity and climatic action at that time, that was a bet i would have been tempted to take. I just would like to see if a climatic move at a key level such as a round number could give an exploitable edge in the long run.
I think you are referring to creating a quantitative predictive model on probabilities of something happening given a preceding series of events. This is the core of most quant trading systems like EdgeQX. Yes, this can and is being done across many assets and is very popular in crypto.
If you are asking me how to do it, then I would be outside of my field of expertise on that.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
I probably have not expressed clearly as what i wanted to know is what was the payout for any event contract for a given time interval such as Yesterday at 14h00 ET. Is it possible to know the previous payouts for the Yes or No proposition of each 15 minute interval of any given previous day? The same way you can look at a bar chart historically.
