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CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC


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CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC

  #271 (permalink)
 
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 bobarian 
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greenr View Post
Difficult call

you were in the right place, thats what counts even if it did fail

Happy New Year to you all

Im off out now

Regards

lookin forward to wednesday..happy newyear!

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  #272 (permalink)
 
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 bobarian 
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regarding that long this am...obviously ,it was a good trade....on the rth ch,the macd is rising, as price is finding support at the 1st std dev.Pa failed to penetrate lower beyond fri lod

ok,so if i look at the eth ch below,i was looking short all the way.In fact ,i was specifically looking at the opposing 1st std dev area for the short.Any time we get to single prints on the prev days rth ch,its a heads up area(in suport of the long.)

with that said,i was expecting price to attempt to reach this area.Why not consider a long?We opened up out of value,relative to fridays rth session....And that is another thought.Looking at the friday rth ch,we barely dipped below the 2nd sdt dev,but were below the val.When we say out of value,are we referring to vwap or value area? i know,...rookie question.

The reason im going on about this, is i was totally wrong on the big pic today.However ,if i was long, my target still would have been the opposing 1st std dev.....happy new year

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  #273 (permalink)
 
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 bobarian 
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greenr View Post
Nearly there

Attachment 97866

Want to see a test and break of a swing high @ 88.83 or im done

no point risking 10-15 cent to get a target filled when i have 45 cent on the runner

VWAP.....Ive had the vwap on my charts for some time now,but am just starting to realize its importance,and how to use it correctly.There is no vwap handbook,but from viewing the trades on this thread,i am getting an idea of some general rules.

I always try to form rules ,to try to reduce the confusion,and add to conviction.

I would welcome anyones views regarding their opinions on this,as it relates to vwap.Putting context aside,if we had 1 chart with vwap,say the eth,would that be enough to keep out of trouble for the am session every day...and take smart trades?...Ok,add the rth tpo..maybe that would be enough.Hmmm

The reason i say without context,is i am trying to isolate the vwap,and view it alone.With that said,have a general set of rules,and then...add context.

I have been observing 1 setup,which i would like to focus on.The pic on this post exemplifies the setup.So here it goes.Some general thoughts.
1.When price is beyond 1st std dev,this indicates a market that is trying to explore prices away from the current value area.
2.Price comes back within the 1st std dev.
a.if in a position,and price comes back within the 1st std dev,the trade should be terminated.
b.on a trend day,a pb to 1stsdt dev can be a good add
3.Once price penetrates ,and is within the 1st std dev,look for an entry on a pb to 1st std dev,with taget being vwap/opposing 1st std dev.
a.This is where context comes in.Essentially,we are determining that price is changing direction.Is there a reason to expect this?Where was the reject?
b.Is it preferable for price to first hit vwap, and pb to 1st std dev for entry?Or, a reasonable break of 1st std dev ,then a pb for entry?I think the latter is fine..Again,opinions welcome.
4.If vwap is sloping nicely,dont fight this.
5.On trending days,a pb to a slopiong vwap with confluence can be a very nice entry.
6.However,in the time i have spent with cl,my view is that most days dont trend.With that said,this setup regarding the 1st std dev can happen often.

These are really random thoughts that i am trying to tie together.My goal is to form some simple rules,and proceed.For the time being, i am trying to isolate the vwap,and then apply these rules with the context of the developing day.

As was the case on Monday, i had a short bias, but price had to migrate from the 2nd std dev,(lower)all the way back to the opposing 1st std dev.I expected this to happen.There was other confluence at this level,which i felt would act as a magnet.This in fact did happen....So,why not consider a long, and hitch a ride to this level?
a.Is there confluence,and a reason for price to head higher?Yes there was.And,once price got above the lower 1st sdt dev,the opportunity presented itself.


The pic here is not the trade i am mentioning.Mondays trade was on the 12/31.They are similar,in that both entries were at the 1st sdt dev.

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  #274 (permalink)
 
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 bobarian 
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cl is up into next bracket on the daily,trending well on the eth 1 min

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  #275 (permalink)
 greenr 
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We have opened up WAY out of balance today with the new year open and the US Cliff crap!

im sitting on hand untill i get a good idea of what we are trying to do

Dolla is selling off, will naturally push crude higher with negative correlation

At the moment i have a rough idead that i would like to sell $94...but with the current circumstances we will have to see how the morning plays out

top of a area from a profile from 10/19/2012

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  #276 (permalink)
 
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 bobarian 
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greenr View Post
We have opened up WAY out of balance today with the new year open and the US Cliff crap!

im sitting on hand untill i get a good idea of what we are trying to do

Dolla is selling off, will naturally push crude higher with negative correlation

At the moment i have a rough idead that i would like to sell $94...but with the current circumstances we will have to see how the morning plays out

top of a area from a profile from 10/19/2012

94 area is the top area of the current bracket...could be very volatile today

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  #277 (permalink)
 greenr 
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bobarian View Post
94 area is the top area of the current bracket...could be very volatile today

Indeed so



i will still look for the oppotunity in that area

I think wif we cannot brak out above $94 we will see a correction to the down side

See what sort of reaction we get off the 10::P00 EST news

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  #278 (permalink)
 greenr 
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Been watching tape aroud todays developing Vpoc

I tried to get a tight fill at $93.70

had a limit sitting on the table

lock in 5-10 ticks, risk off and see were it went

I did not fill and and i will not chase it now

I does look like we are going to try test lower waters

Time will tell

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  #279 (permalink)
 greenr 
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This looks like a good area developing for a short now

1st upper Dev Vwap looks to be holding as resistance

Looks to me a good area for a downwards roatation

Just with the current situation is a hard trade to execute as we could see a rejection into the 1st Dev and another pop to the upside in this developed up trend we are in

Hi risk trade!



Would like to see $93.52 tested and downwards price exploration


Im short 93.57....tight leash. Its either going to go or tight stop (stop @ 63`s)

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  #280 (permalink)
 
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 bobarian 
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i noticed there is a line between your 1st and 2nd sdt dev.Is that a midpoint?

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