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CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC


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CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC

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  #761 (permalink)
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 Private Banker 
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Yet another poor high on the day. Market just wouldn't go past yesterday's poc. Very interesting. This marks the third day in which the market has struggled with establishing any excess high. Yesterday was saved by the closing range spike but today, no such luck. Its the last day of the month and I could see a lot of volume being thrown around into the close. Another tough day though, we only had a RTH range of .81. This is just continued range compression. We could see a big move come out of this again.



As I mentioned yesterday, the market appears to be slowing down but there's still buyers that have been coming in at the session lows to get a close above VWAP. I still think we go higher and test those points of reference I noted yesterday but you never know.

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  #762 (permalink)
 kulu 
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What I saw and was waiting for.

We opened In-Range, In-Balance and In-Value. The IB was very wide and hence that alerted me to a possibility of a range day. However, this wasn't confirmed for me until the second TPO was completed. At this point, I was looking for an IBH/IBL trade whenever price got to those levels.



As shown on my chart, during the C period, I was watching to see if we would rotate down to the IBL and complete the A period buying tail. However we didn't get down to the IBL level, but we rejected off the A period buying tail. At this point, I expectation was a trade to the IBH. I was looking for signs to get in on the long, but didn't get in, hesitation on my part (I wish I could read the footprint chart, I bet there was something at that zone (zone bounded by the blue thick line all the way to the low of the day). Also that level had confluence of both the ETH and RTH 1STD bands, and rejection candlestick patterns. Of course now we all know that we traded to the IBH.




Anyways, just wanted to share what I saw and intended to do. Maybe @Private Banker can share a little bit on what you look for on the footprint chart when price gets to an area of interest.

Thanks, and y'all have a great evening.

Kulu

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  #763 (permalink)
 
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 Private Banker 
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kulu View Post
What I saw and was waiting for.

We opened In-Range, In-Balance and In-Value. The IB was very wide and hence that alerted me to a possibility of a range day. However, this wasn't confirmed for me until the second TPO was completed. At this point, I was looking for an IBH/IBL trade whenever price got to those levels.



As shown on my chart, during the C period, I was watching to see if we would rotate down to the IBL and complete the A period buying tail. However we didn't get down to the IBL level, but we rejected off the A period buying tail. At this point, I expectation was a trade to the IBH. I was looking for signs to get in on the long, but didn't get in, hesitation on my part (I wish I could read the footprint chart, I bet there was something at that zone (zone bounded by the blue thick line all the way to the low of the day). Also that level had confluence of both the ETH and RTH 1STD bands, and rejection candlestick patterns. Of course now we all know that we traded to the IBH.




Anyways, just wanted to share what I saw and intended to do. Maybe @Private Banker can share a little bit on what you look for on the footprint chart when price gets to an area of interest.

Thanks, and y'all have a great evening.

Kulu

Excellent analysis. I was watching those levels as well but couldn't resist taking the short from yesterday's POC coming off a tight ranged day. Those often provide nice moves. With that being said I was fully aware of the lower excess area of 1/29 which is where I exited my first trade. But had you simply waited and wanted to buy that area, you could've used the footprint chart and identified in the following way.

We already knew the market would most likely reference 1/29's profile as we were still trading within its range. A long from the single prints ledge area made great sense.

Looking at the footprint chart below, you can see that sellers were aggressively hitting the bid on the way down to our point of reference. Once we arrived there, huge volume came in at the bid. This was clearly everyone and their grandmothers covering there. The delta quickly dropped from the previous bar although the cumulative delta (CD) did not. If you weren't comfortable with that, you could've waited for the next bar to form and make a call from there. You can see both delta and CD jumped higher at that point with buyers lifting the offer and taking price back into value. This was most likely continued short term shorts closing out as the market squeezed all the way back up to yesterday's low and DVAH.



Hopefully that was clear but please feel free to ask any questions.

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  #764 (permalink)
 
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 plethora 
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Private Banker View Post

Looking at the footprint chart below, you can see that sellers were aggressively hitting the bid on the way down to our point of reference. Once we arrived there, huge volume came in at the bid. This was clearly everyone and their grandmothers covering there. The delta quickly dropped from the previous bar although the cumulative delta (CD) did not. If you weren't comfortable with that, you could've waited for the next bar to form and make a call from there. You can see both delta and CD jumped higher at that point with buyers lifting the offer and taking price back into value. This was most likely continued short term shorts closing out as the market squeezed all the way back up to yesterday's low and DVAH.




I learn so much from your analysis, always filled with clarity.
Thank you.

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  #765 (permalink)
 
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 philipp 
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hi guys,

getting more and more a fan of market profile, a BIG thank you goes out to you guys here, sharing your insights and knowledge.

i have a questions to the more expirienced (more than me) mp traders here, if somebody is watching what i started to watch.

on rollover from 2-13 to 3-13 i added the value area based on volume to my charts (start date 17th), showing some very nice opportunities.

as you see in the attachement, the chart shows a perfect pullback to vah (pink line) and high of prior week (lime line).

so is one of you watching the value area beginning on rollover day or has any opinions on that?

thanks in advance

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  #766 (permalink)
 greenr 
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Was not letting this one leave with out me today

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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  #767 (permalink)
 
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 Private Banker 
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greenr View Post
Attachment 101277

Was not letting this one leave with out me today

I'm right there with you on this one...

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  #768 (permalink)
 greenr 
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Private Banker View Post
I'm right there with you on this one...

Here is what im looking at

for a possible target area


" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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  #769 (permalink)
 greenr 
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greenr View Post
Here is what im looking at

for a possible target area

Attachment 101281

Just covered my runner here


" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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  #770 (permalink)
 greenr 
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Going for a long back into value


" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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