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Trading Oil - "Velocity" system


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Trading Oil - "Velocity" system

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  #41 (permalink)
 
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 xplorer 
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Okina View Post
@xplorer

depending of what is your style of trading I recommend you to read lancelot trading journal. He is much better than me. He did not explain market in the same way that I do but I think that we have very close system. He has done several videos and he is trading his system for years.

The biggest challenge for me has been to learn patience.

Thank you.. I'll check his posts out although I don't really trade Oil at the moment. I have in the past and I will in the future but for now I am concentrating on thicker markets.

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  #42 (permalink)
 
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 Okina 
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today is not my day. It not because there are no opportunities in the market but since I've missed the first one I do not trade well. Better for me to quit for sometime now. It would be my worst day.

late entry, 4 bars after signal, 2 ticks higher. Not the kind of dynamic that I like to see.

Trade 2 : 0


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  #43 (permalink)
 
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Okina View Post
today is not my day. It not because there are no opportunities in the market but since I've missed the first one I do not trade well. Better for me to quit for sometime now. It would be my worst day.

late entry, 4 bars after signal, 2 ticks higher. Not the kind of dynamic that I like to see.

Trade 2 : 0

As I said before I don't trade Oil now but today I had a similar experience to yours... I was trying to catch a move down on EuroStoxx but I didn't get it right... no real losses but after that I got mentally unable to watch the screen again so I called it quits for the day.... I think it's important to recognize when something clicks in your mind and it's best to let it go before you do some serious harm... for me it's part of the learning process...

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  #44 (permalink)
 
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 Okina 
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I took a last one. This one was a little more risky than usual (late entry in the permission trend) but since it was the close of the pit I had a good probability that the day will finish in the same trend.

I took a little more risk and I have used for the first time a scale strategy.

Sold 1 at 31.87
Sold 1 at 31.78 (when the trend was clear and confirmed)

Close 2 at 31.73 (missed the local bottom by 10 ticks as usual lol)

trade 3: +19





At least I have finish the day with the same profit in $ than working for McDo

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  #45 (permalink)
 
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 Okina 
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02/19

Definitely not a good day because I was not concentrated on my trading and more on futures.io forum....

The good point is that now when I take a bad signal I manage to exit with no (or very minimal) loss. My 10 ticks stop loss has never been reached for a while now.

Results : +2 +0 +19 = +21

Some people would say that 21 is very good and that with that they will be millionaire is less than a year but this strategy is not unfortunately very scalable. Maybe I can play it with 5 but definitely no more than 10. My success rely on being nimble and fast and using only market order to have a very fast execution. With only 2 I exit 1 tick above the bar as you can see. When I press buy that market was at 31.72 ask. With 10 I would have lost certainly 3 ticks.

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  #46 (permalink)
 
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Okina View Post
Some people would say that 21 is very good and that with that they will be millionaire is less than a year but this strategy is not unfortunately very scalable. Maybe I can play it with 5 but definitely no more than 10. My success rely on being nimble and fast and using only market order to have a very fast execution. With only 2 I exit 1 tick above the bar as you can see. When I press buy that market was at 31.72 ask. With 10 I would have lost certainly 3 ticks.

What about looking at a larger bar? You'd get less trades but then you wouldn't be so reliant on being fast. You could trade 5-10 contracts and not have to worry about getting slipped a tick or two on entry if your targets are bigger. Just a thought.

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  #47 (permalink)
 
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TheShrike View Post
What about looking at a larger bar? You'd get less trades but then you wouldn't be so reliant on being fast. You could trade 5-10 contracts and not have to worry about getting slipped a tick or two on entry if your targets are bigger. Just a thought.

You're certainly right. But I'm not at this point now. As I said patience is a virtue in trading. When I will reach 5 contracts I could expect a very comfortable income. Even now with one and without working to much it is not too bad.

This part is very personal but I will tell it because I found it is funny. We all have a reason to trade.

I don't trade for money but at the same time I trade for money. I retired completely in 2003 when I was 33. I love travelling by boat and by car but my wife don't like the boat very much. Before my son was young and even if we have traveled a lot it was never more than 2 or 3 months in a raw. Now I really want to travel around the world. But my wife as many women is very conservative when it comes to money and she has always a doubt saying if we travel for the rest of our life (or at least for the next 10 years) maybe we will be short of cash. Even if I had explained her that it would make no difference since in Asia for example life cost 20x less than in North America and since we are not working for 14 years now and we still can eat. But none the less I have understood that I need to do something. So the deal I have made is the following. Let stay 2 more years in Canada so our son could finish is engineering degree and during that time I put aside an few 100K to buy the truck. So we wont spend a cents of our money. For the rest, the life will be as usual and certainly less costly.

I'm looking to buy an eathroamer. EarthRoamer


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  #48 (permalink)
 
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Okina View Post
My success rely on being nimble and fast and using only market order to have a very fast execution.

That's why you could automate it...

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  #49 (permalink)
 
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When you are driving a car you have active systems (systems that require your action) and passive systems in order to assure your physical security. In other words you have brakes and steering wheel on one hand and airbag and safety belt on the other.

This analogy perfectly applies to trading.

Trading without a stop is like driving your car without the airbag and the safety belt. Even if you are the best driver in the world it won't cost you anything to have that on your car, it won't reduce your performance and it can save your life. If having a stop cost you it only means that your have to improve your entry.

Would you drive your car without brakes or a steering wheel? I hope not or in that case your family has my deepest condolences. Not having an exit signal when you are trading and only relying on your stop is the same. If you don't have that 2 things will happen. First your equity will melt like snow in the sun and you won't trade long enough in order to have a chance to become profitable. Second you will certainly reduce your stop level at a level so close to the entry price that you won't be able to take any profitable trade. On a "very good day" you will make 10 trades to do 10 ticks, you will be your broker best friend but you will never be your banker best client.

What to think about trailing stop? My opinion is that I don't like them, but they are better than nothing. To pursue the analogy they are mix of break and airbag. A trailing stop is like saying I'm not sure of what I'm doing, I don't know if I should brake or just turn the wheel or if I should close my eyes and pray. It is an easy solution but not an optimal one.

Examples:

In the below trade I have used the "breaks". I went long at 32.03 (stop at 31.93). The up movement has already started well below that level, so I know that even if my risk is acceptable I have to be prudent. The market quickly rise to 32.13 and in less than 30s went back to 32.05. My range bar closed under my volatilty bands (they are painted in white in that case). I use the brake and I have decided to exit (I don't have another screenshot but after that the market went down more than 10 ticks below my entry point, which would have trigger my stop).




The below trade is a good example of why I don't like trailing stops and why it is important to have the control of your exit instead of relying on something automatic. I went short at 28.03 (stop at 28.13). The market went down very quickly with a lot of momentum (despite a pull back at the beginning but that did not trigger any signals). Around 27.75 we had another pull back up to 27.85. If I had a trailing stop I would have been out during this pullback. I had an exit signal on the RB chart at this level. But I had made already 18 ticks of potential profit so I decided that I could afford to take more risk (it is not my money that I'm playing now it is the "market's money"). After this pullback I had another sharp down move. And this time I have closed my position with 48 ticks of profit instead of 18.




(disclamer: of course not all trades are as clear as those 2, I'm not always as right as I was in those 2. But I my stop had not been hit for a long time and I work in order to maintain this situation).

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  #50 (permalink)
 
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 Okina 
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When I speak about targets I mean real targets the one you enter since the beginning in the market. for example you go long at 30.00 and at the same time you put an order to sell at 30.10.

Targets are the quickest way to the poorhouse. I know that, I have used them for a while.

The only valid reason to use a target is: you are a genius or you have extra sensory gifts and you are able to perfectly predict the future.

If you don't have those gifts what will happen is: you will only scalp the big move (the one that make you profitable in the long run) and when you are wrong you will still be wrong.

2 weeks ago I was in the office of a broker who is a friend of mine and he was on the phone with a client. I saw him smile and he put the client on speaker. And I heard the client saying :" is it possible to have a trailing sell order, you know when the market go up my sell order go up at the same time so I can sell at a higher price..." It was difficult to not laught
and the guy to add "I know that you know that the market will go up so you screw me and you sell my stock at a higher price and you give me a lower price."

This guy may look stupid, and he was. But people with targets are doing the same in my opinion.

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