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Seasonal Trades


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Seasonal Trades

  #71 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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CME :- Is Crude Oil Taking Cue from Vegetable Oils?

Not a great piece but does talk about the impact Biofuels could be having on both Oil products

Is Crude Oil Taking Cue from Vegetable Oils? - [AUTOLINK]CME[/AUTOLINK] Group

Apologies for the double/cross post but seems relevant to the recent RBOB discussion as well as the CL thread.

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  #72 (permalink)
 Futuresnoob 
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I was considering buying /ZLK7. According to MRCI the trade kicks off soon. It currently sits right about the 78 retracement after just toucing it. It is at 100%of the last measured move. Also price is resting on the longer trend line. I won't be able to take the trade since TD never mentioned when moving my capital from my personal to an LLC none of my account upgrades came with it. Any thoughts? How did I do? Hopefully I will have my permissions cleared by the time /PL sets up at the end of the month if that little pop doesn't trigger the start.



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  #73 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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Futuresnoob View Post
I was considering buying /ZLK7. According to MRCI the trade kicks off soon. It currently sits right about the 78 retracement after just toucing it. It is at 100%of the last measured move. Also price is resting on the longer trend line. I won't be able to take the trade since TD never mentioned when moving my capital from my personal to an LLC none of my account upgrades came with it. Any thoughts? How did I do? Hopefully I will have my permissions cleared by the time /PL sets up at the end of the month if that little pop doesn't trigger the start.

There are some reasons why I am careful this year regarding this trade:

CL is weak against the seasonal trend,

S is weak against the seasonal trend,

the seasonals for the most recent 5 years period is significantly weaker than for the 15 years period.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #74 (permalink)
volramp
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MRCI recommend going long CL in June. 13/15 winners. I figured I'd sell short the Aug puts (around 15 delta) instead of going long the futures. More bang for the buck and also more managable if CL doesnt rally. What dou you guys think?

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  #75 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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volramp View Post
MRCI recommend going long CL in June. 13/15 winners. I figured I'd sell short the Aug puts (around 15 delta) instead of going long the futures. More bang for the buck and also more managable if CL doesnt rally. What dou you guys think?

MRCI suggests to buy the October contract. Average profit is approx. $ 2800. Since 2006 there were 4 years with drawdowns of more than $ 3,000. I do not like seasonal trades where max. drawdown is higher than average profit in a couple of years.

COT data is more bearish than bullish.

I am not interested in selling puts at this time of the year. I intend to sell calls, but only if the price gets to a higher level.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #76 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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There is an interesting seasonal trade, suggested by MRCI until end of October.

Buy ADZ / sell CDZ .

The daily chart follows the seasonal chart quite well for all of 2017.

Average Profit is above $1300 for the most reent 15 years, there are only 2 years with a drawdown of more than $1000.

The chart seems to form a bottom right now, and a stopped can be place nearby.

As always, questions and comments are highly welcome.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #77 (permalink)
 
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 bobarian 
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myrrdin View Post
There is an interesting seasonal trade, suggested by MRCI until end of October.

Buy ADZ / sell CDZ .

The daily chart follows the seasonal chart quite well for all of 2017.

Average Profit is above $1300 for the most reent 15 years, there are only 2 years with a drawdown of more than $1000.

The chart seems to form a bottom right now, and a stopped can be place nearby.

As always, questions and comments are highly welcome.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I am glad to follow your thread.I started years ago with the grains, then left that to follow the minis.Still struggling with daytrading, but have hopes of one day following the grains again.Any chance you could post charts every now and then?
thanks, Bob

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  #78 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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bobarian View Post
I am glad to follow your thread.I started years ago with the grains, then left that to follow the minis.Still struggling with daytrading, but have hopes of one day following the grains again.Any chance you could post charts every now and then?
thanks, Bob

If your request is regarding charts, including support, resistance etc, I have to apologize. I know a lot about fundamentals, but am not a good chartist. But if one of the visitors hear has experience in this field he or she is invited to add some charts.

If your request is regarding seasonal charts, I have to apologize again. These charts are part of a paid subscription of MRCI, and I do not think it is fair to publish their content. As far as I know MRCI and Seasonalgo offer free trial subscriptions.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #79 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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myrrdin View Post
There is an interesting seasonal trade, suggested by MRCI until end of October.

Buy ADZ / sell CDZ .

So basically the AUD:CAD cross?

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  #80 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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SMCJB View Post
So basically the AUD:CAD cross?

Yes, it is the AUD:CAD cross. I do not trade Forex, thus I trade it via futures.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Last Updated on May 4, 2021


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