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Grains & Beans

  #121 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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Today at 11 pm Chicago Time (18.00 Central European Time) is WASDE report, regarding grains and beans.

I do not expect strong price movements, but - as always - keep lot sizes at a moderate level.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #122 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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myrrdin View Post
Sorry - I am unable to find a direct link and post it here. But Googling "cmegroup" "vsr-whitepaper" should direct you to a pdf explaining the concept.

Thanks for this. Been unbelievably busy recently (duh!) and haven't had a chance to look at this yet. Will do soon.

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  #123 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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myrrdin View Post
I am still long the KW-W spread in the new crop contracts (N, U, Z), after rolling the March contract to December. Some day the spread will cross the 0-line - but I have no idea when.

I liquidated the SN-SX spread some days ago with a (very) small profit.

Best regards, Myrrdin

There is only a limited number of trades that look interesting to me. One of them is still the KW-W spread, which I hold for a considerable number of months. But it looks to be worth it - the spread denotes higher than in reent months.

I only entered one other position in the Grains & Beans: I bought some SMN futures, expecting more imports from China and - perhaps - some virus problems in the South Americas, which might hinider transportation.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #124 (permalink)
 
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 WoodyFox 
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Hey there Grains and Bean traders. 😊 I have recently started research into the agriculture commodities and have come across what seams to be a pretty promising strategy with corn futures. I am wanting to add corn to my diversification and move away from crude. I do well in the indices and FX...But crude has been tougher than usual. Through studying the data for the last 10 years, I concluded it was more advantageous to use a trending strategy until early 2018. It seems since then that corn has moved into a more range moving market, which makes a mean reverting strategy more advantageous. I have moved to live testing on the mini sized contract and have been doing well for several months now. I still have so much to learn with this product and currently hesitant to move to the larger contract. I would like to get some feedback on anything I should be aware of other than watching World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Also if you guys know a reason why corn is not moving as it once was?

Thanks, Woody

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  #125 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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WoodyFox View Post
Hey there Grains and Bean traders. 😊 I have recently started research into the agriculture commodities and have come across what seams to be a pretty promising strategy with corn futures. I am wanting to add corn to my diversification and move away from crude. I do well in the indices and FX...But crude has been tougher than usual. Through studying the data for the last 10 years, I concluded it was more advantageous to use a trending strategy until early 2018. It seems since then that corn has moved into a more range moving market, which makes a mean reverting strategy more advantageous. I have moved to live testing on the mini sized contract and have been doing well for several months now. I still have so much to learn with this product and currently hesitant to move to the larger contract. I would like to get some feedback on anything I should be aware of other than watching World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Also if you guys know a reason why corn is not moving as it once was?

Thanks, Woody

Regarding fundamentals there are several important ones to watch:

Supply & Demand world-wide,
Weather in the US, in South Americas and the former Soviet Union,
tendency to mix Ethanol to gasoline,
number of animals fed,
prices of related grains (wheat, as it competes in the feed market; soybeans, as they compete for acreage),
COT data.

Of course, most of them are related to S&D.

Sorry - I have no idea why corn moves differnetly today than in past years.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #126 (permalink)
 
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 WoodyFox 
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myrrdin View Post
Regarding fundamentals there are several important ones to watch:

Supply & Demand world-wide,
Weather in the US, in South Americas and the former Soviet Union,
tendency to mix Ethanol to gasoline,
number of animals fed,
prices of related grains (wheat, as it competes in the feed market; soybeans, as they compete for acreage),
COT data.

Of course, most of them are related to S&D.

Sorry - I have no idea why corn moves differnetly today than in past years.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Wow, good list. Lot to read up on.
Thanks,

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  #127 (permalink)
 
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 Schnook 
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I've recently started looking at corn again as a potential swing trade candidate. Nothing doing yet, but it's on my radar.

As @myrrdin correctly pointed out it really does come down to supply and demand in the medium to longer term. Due to the ethanol component of demand, corn prices followed energy lower in March and April, and the COT data shows that speculators were building a sizeable short position during that period. At some point these shorts will need to cover.

I'll be watching the progress of plantings and of course weather to see how the supply side is shaping up, but the large short base suggests to me that there will be a strong bid to cover at some point.

If anyone has any good agricultural news sources I'd very much appreciate your recommendations. I used to enjoy agrimoney.com before they put up the paywall, and now browse agriculture.com on occasion, but remain on the lookout for more.

@WoodyFox, what kind of a time-frame are you looking to trade?

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  #128 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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Schnook View Post
I've recently started looking at corn again as a potential swing trade candidate. Nothing doing yet, but it's on my radar.

As @myrrdin correctly pointed out it really does come down to supply and demand in the medium to longer term. Due to the ethanol component of demand, corn prices followed energy lower in March and April, and the COT data shows that speculators were building a sizeable short position during that period. At some point these shorts will need to cover.

I'll be watching the progress of plantings and of course weather to see how the supply side is shaping up, but the large short base suggests to me that there will be a strong bid to cover at some point.

If anyone has any good agricultural news sources I'd very much appreciate your recommendations. I used to enjoy agrimoney.com before they put up the paywall, and now browse agriculture.com on occasion, but remain on the lookout for more.

@WoodyFox, what kind of a time-frame are you looking to trade?

If you are looking for information on grains free of charge: Daniels Trading offers free newsletters, also to non-customers.

RJO has an excellent service by Rich Feltes, the best one I know, but for customers with an account only.

And there is of course Dave Hightower - but they would like to sell you their services.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #129 (permalink)
 
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 WoodyFox 
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Schnook View Post
I've recently started looking at corn again as a potential swing trade candidate. Nothing doing yet, but it's on my radar.

As @myrrdin correctly pointed out it really does come down to supply and demand in the medium to longer term. Due to the ethanol component of demand, corn prices followed energy lower in March and April, and the COT data shows that speculators were building a sizeable short position during that period. At some point these shorts will need to cover.

I'll be watching the progress of plantings and of course weather to see how the supply side is shaping up, but the large short base suggests to me that there will be a strong bid to cover at some point.

If anyone has any good agricultural news sources I'd very much appreciate your recommendations. I used to enjoy agrimoney.com before they put up the paywall, and now browse agriculture.com on occasion, but remain on the lookout for more.

@WoodyFox, what kind of a time-frame are you looking to trade?

@Schnook I trade using price only, but I usually enter on a ten minute chart for visual reasons. Thanks for your input, its always so nice to hear the perspectives of other traders.

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  #130 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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Schnook View Post
I've recently started looking at corn again as a potential swing trade candidate. Nothing doing yet, but it's on my radar.

As @myrrdin correctly pointed out it really does come down to supply and demand in the medium to longer term. Due to the ethanol component of demand, corn prices followed energy lower in March and April, and the COT data shows that speculators were building a sizeable short position during that period. At some point these shorts will need to cover.

I'll be watching the progress of plantings and of course weather to see how the supply side is shaping up, but the large short base suggests to me that there will be a strong bid to cover at some point.

If anyone has any good agricultural news sources I'd very much appreciate your recommendations. I used to enjoy agrimoney.com before they put up the paywall, and now browse agriculture.com on occasion, but remain on the lookout for more.

@WoodyFox, what kind of a time-frame are you looking to trade?

I intend to buy corn early next week. Reasons for my decision:

COT data looks bullish to me.
Seasonal chart looks bullish.
There will be weather risk for the next couple of weeks.
Downside risk seems to be limited because of COT data and weather risk. There will be weather risk until reliable forecasts are available for the pollination period in the US.

I will buy 50 % of the position outright (C-future) and 50 % against the wheat future (C-W).

Best regards, Myrrdin

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