1:1 risk reward, and targeting win rate?

NexusFi · 2022-04-21T21:09:41-04:00

i've been wanting to get into futures day trading for a while, and i'm starting my regimen today. 30m-60m/day of trading the open(or before lunch really). i'm using a basic setup: waiting for the 9/21sma to spread with the pSAR confirming, and then buying pullbacks into the 9ema and selling when they hit 4 ticks. i'm also using 4ticks as a stop too. the ATR was like 10~ticks today, so things moved fast to say the least. average trade was 45sec. after 35trades i was down $113 after commissions, …

Discussion in Emini and Emicro Index

Updated April 22, 2022

1:1 risk reward, and targeting win rate?

April 21st, 2022, 09:09 PM

#51 (permalink)

GoodTrading

Loja, Ecuador

Posts: 36 since Jan 2022

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kevinkdog

Just to backup this statement ( or at least come pretty close)

Over the last 5 years...

The high of the day occurred during first 90 minutes 457 days out of 1249, or 37% of days
The low of the day occurred during first 90 minutes 621 days out of 1249, or 50% of days

The 5 years previous to that look about the same.

I suppose it depends what you are trading. I have not done the math for all futures but I trade S&P / Nasdaq, treasuries, oil and gold and it seems to be about 90% on all 4 of those. I would doubt this applies to everything but I learned it from Al Brooks who has studied the ES over the past 30 years.