I would like to get as many other trader's advice, on the methods / Indicators that they use, in determining a " Realistic " profit target , as well as how they base their decision on , when to add to a position

Here's my thoughts on the topic at hand...

I'm going to use the ES for the example

Currently I use the ATR Indicator ( set to a 1 week look back period ) with a 3 x multiplier on my weekly chart
I have it on such a long term chart, as to help keep me into my trades ( especially when I catch a good trend )

But what I am wanting to do, is to incorporate the ATR , in conjunction with the ADR and the Fibonacci Extension drawing tool

Here is what I mean..... Let's say that we are using the ADR on a 9000 tick chart on the ES
and we also have the ADR plotted on the chart ( set to a 15 day look back period )
The reading that we get from the ATR shows us that the average ADR of the ES over the past 15 days is 20 points ( the average )
So given this, how would other traders use this 20 point ADR " daily move " , and set your profit targets based off of it ?
Would you risk 25% of the 20 points ( 5 points ) and have a profit target of 15 ... for a 3:1 reward to risk ratio

or would you base your stop and Target(s) on the structure of the chart itself .... I.E. where the support and resistance levels are ?

I have been running analysis to do the following :
If the ADR shows 20 points, then I will " low ball " my target , and assume that I " should " be able to achieve hitting a 15 point target ( in theory of course )
I will place my stop on a structural basis of the chart .... I.E. below a recent Low for example if I'm going Long , or just below a solid support level

I like to always shoot for a 3:1 reward to risk ratio , so if my stop based on the structure of the chart ( says ) for me to place my stop 3 points below my entry , then I will place it at that 3 point level
And with a 3:1 reward to risk trading methodology, My target at minimum would be 9 points..... The ADR is showing 20 points..... 75% of 20 points is 15 points ..... and thus my 9 point target is well below the 20 point ADR number, so it " shouldn't " have to much trouble hitting the profit target
Of course this is all just hypothetical , and nothing is for certain

I am just trying to see what other traders use for determining there profit targets , as well as how they decide when to add to their positions?

One last thing is..... I also use the Fibonnaci extension tool , set at each 100% level
I look to add to my position at each 200% level that is hit , and then trail the trade 200% " from behind "
So if I enter at 2100.00 and my stop is 2000.00 ..... I will add to my position at each 200% move that the trade moves in my favor ( at 2300 , 2500, 2700, etc. )

Also have heard that some traders like to use the extension levels of.... 127%, 1.618, 1.999 , 2.333
I have plotted these extension levels on my charts from the point of entry, and it seems almost like a self fulfilling prophecy, that price gravitates towards these levels , and reverses, pulls back, etc...


Sorry for the long post
I really appreciate any feedback and to learn how others determine their targets / adding to positions

/ES is super liquid. Whenever I hear somebody criticizing about slippage in /ES, I know they have either never traded /ES before or haven't traded before period. I know people that scalp 100-200 lots at market orders for 2-3 ticks. You should set a specific daily profit goal that is easily attainable, and a daily loss limit. Your upside is increasing your size. Look up Al Brooks. He's been doing it for decades. Have small easy high probability goals, and just add size.

Hi chrisplecker,

I appreciate your reply

For those traders that scalp 100 - 200 lots at a time and aim for making 2-3 ticks ..... what is their stop loss like ?
is it the same stop loss as profit target ( 2-3 ticks ) ?

On the increasing the size of the trade ..... do you mean scaling into a trade ( after you have already entered into one )
Or
are you referencing increasing the number of contracts I currently trade , and entering my trades with say 5 contracts vs the 3 contracts I have currently been entering the market with ?

The main key I can see, is having a real life and actual Edge , and then as you mentioned .... compounding that Edge, by increasing your contract size , on a per trade basis