Slow day again, not many opportunities apart from the morning.

Scenario 2 played out for the most part, but I was assuming a lower drop to the ~5010/5000 area

I took 1 trade expecting a breakdown which didn't happen.

Here's the trade.







Trade grade – Ok

• It may or may not have been part of my setup plans but at least aligned to my scenarios
• Some signs were there
• Decent (but not good) target and/or stop

Psychology goals for the day

• 0 FOMO trades- Passed
• 0 Emotional trades- Passed
• Engage deliberate thinking in all trades- Passed
• Do not get greedy with your trades- Passed
• Abide by your trade management standard- Passed
• Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules- Passed
• Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods- Passed
• Maximum of 3 trades today- Passed
• All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups- Passed
• Do not look at P&L- Passed
• No trading while the market is flat- Passed

See you tomorrow!

• I'm starting to feel like a broken record with my morning plans to be honest. Very little changes
• ON session low range @ 14/40 ATR
• Low volume
• Weekly range @ 34/125
• Looks like another day where we can establish a new record high
• On a weekly timeframe things look like there's still lots of room to go up
• SBUX up 1% pre open

News / earnings

• Industrial Production @ 915
• Yellen speaks @ 3
• C and GS report earnings pre open
• NFLX reports earnings post close

Scenarios

1. Open up bear to ON low, then push up and make new all time high records
2. Open up bear to ON low, then move up to All time high, and range between those 2 points
3. Open up bull to all time high, pullback a bit and then continue bull rally and establish new all time highs
4. Open up bull to all time high, then move back down to ON low and trend between those 2 points
5. Open up bull to all time high, then move down to ON low, pullback a bit and move down to ~5030 and possibly even lower

Setups I'll take today

1. ~5060 (Record High)
   • LF Long
   • Break out trade here
   • Stop behind 5060 is ideal
   • Targets will be hard here
   • You only want to take if there's strong bull sentiment in the market
2. ~5060 (Record High)
   • LF Short
   • You are looking for a reversal trade
   • Stop behind 5065 is ideal
   • Safe target is 5043, stretch is 5037, 3rd stretch is 5033
3. ~5035 (ON Low)
   • LF Long
   • You are looking for an indication that this is just a pullback and we are going to continue the bull rally
   • Stop behind 5030 is ideal
   • Safe target is 5047, stretch is 5057, 3rd stretch is past new all time high but guarantee 15 pts of profit to aim for it
4. ~5025 (PDL)
   • LF Long
   • Stop behind 5025 is a must, behind 5019 is ideal
   • Safe target is 5039, stretch is 5047, 3rd stretch is ~ all time highs, 4th stretch is breaking new all time highs
5. ~5025 (PDL)
   • LF Short
   • Break down
   • Stop behind 5030 is ideal
   • Safe target is 5016, stretch is 5011, 3rd stretch is 5006

PS- Do not hold any positions past the 4 EST mark as NFLX reports earnings

Psychology goals for the day

• 0 FOMO trades
• 0 Emotional trades
• Engage deliberate thinking in all trades
• Do not get greedy with your trades
• Abide by your trade management standard
• Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules
• Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods
• Maximum of 3 trades today
• All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups - NFLX trade would be the only possible exception
• Do not look at P&L
• No trading while the market is flat

Let's do this!

I was banking on scenario 2 happening, but we ended up with scenario 1

One trade taken. It looked really good and I thought we had a winner











Ended up 1 pt up which is a break even for me

Trade grade - Good

• It was in the plan
• Observed signs of entry
• Good target and stop

About an hr after this we had a power surge and it took me a while to figure out how to reset things so I could turn my PC on
My first time going through one of these in my own house, we don't get those often in Canada

Psychology goals for the day

• 0 FOMO trades- Passed
• 0 Emotional trades- Passed
• Engage deliberate thinking in all trades- Passed
• Do not get greedy with your trades- Passed
• Abide by your trade management standard- Passed
• Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules- Passed
• Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods- Passed
• Maximum of 3 trades today- Passed
• All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups - NFLX trade would be the only possible exception- Passed
• Do not look at P&L- Passed
• No trading while the market is flat- Passed

• You can pretty much guess what I'm going to say
• Low ON range, low volume, opening within the range that we have been in for the last bit
• 16/38 ATR
• No big move overnight, no huge activity, just boring
• News pre market all came up very positive
• No earnings today
• NFLX up 7% after reporting earnings

Scenarios

1. Hit all time high, move bear from that until we find strong support and then continue to go up and break new all time highs
2. Hit all time high, trend bear for the rest of the day until we find strong support, then pullback a bit but don't end close to high
3. Open up bear until ON low, then move up for rest of day
4. Open up bear until ~ PDL or ~5025, then move up from there
5. Open up all time high, pullback and continue to trend bull

Setups I'll take today
I feel like these are mostly the same setups we have had this year. I'll only add the detail for the ones that haven't been there every day for the last 2 weeks

1. ~5060 (Record high)
   • LF Short
2. ~5060 (Record high)
   • LF break out trade here
3. ~5045 (ON Low)
   • LF Long
   • You are looking for strong bullish signals
   • This might just be relevant for the first hour of trading
   • Stop behind 5040 is a must, ideally behind 5038
   • Safe target is 5057, stretch is breaking all time highs so watch your trade management rules to protect yourself
4. ~5035 (PDL)
   • LF Long
   • You are looking for strong bullish signals
   • Stop behind 5035 is a must
   • Safe target is 5047, stretch is 5057, 3rd stretch is new all time highs if we are strongly bullish
   • This is a tricky area, so unless the signs are very strong, just avoid
5. ~5025 (Week low)
   • LF Long
6. ~5025 (Week low)
   • LF Break-down trade here

Psychology goals for the day

• 0 FOMO trades
• 0 Emotional trades
• Engage deliberate thinking in all trades
• Do not get greedy with your trades
• Abide by your trade management standard
• Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules
• Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods
• Maximum of 3 trades today
• All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups - NFLX trade would be the only possible exception
• Do not look at P&L
• No trading while the market is flat

Market has been slow and boring, and my journaling and routine have taken a hit and I haven't been as diligent about it as I should be. Just because the market is slow doesn't mean I can slack off, so I have to focus on getting back to journaling on a daily basis, as well as doing everything else that is part of my routine. As an example I've yet to do a weekly analysis and some days I won't post my post day summary. This is not good work ethic so let's get back to a good routine!

Here's my prep

• More earnings this week
• Hit new record highs last week
• Closed near record highs
• Lowest range we've seen this year, and lowest since October
• Weekly range was 58 / 126 ATR
• We had higher highs, higher lows, and less volume than the week prior
• However, the last 2 days volume started to pick up and volume should pick up as we start to see more quarterly earnings
• As for key news we have GDP on Friday, but nothing else too noteworthy
• 5083 is the record high and key area to watch
• Will we see 5,100 this week?

Earnings this week

• Monday - YHOO (Post Close)
• Tuesday - TXN (Post Close)
• Wednesday - EBAY and QCOM (Post Close)
• Thursday - BIIB, CELG, CMCSA and PYPL (Pre Open), INTC, MSFT, SBUX (Post Close)

Goals this week

1. Post my 2017 goals & objectives by end of day Monday
2. Journal every day with Tuesday being an exception (got some appointments in the morning)
3. 100% compliance on everything that is related to my usual trading routine (morning prep, tracking, post analysis, weekly analysis, etc.)

Let's do this!

• Range 15/38 ATR
• Volume is low
• No news today
• We had a bear open on Sunday
• YHOO reports post-close
• QCOM down 6%
• TMUS up 2.3%

Scenarios
Trying something new with my scenarios and it's kind of messy so I won't be posting them today. I'm trying to move away from a word-based scenario planning into something more visual.


Setups I'll take today

1. ~5100
   • LF Short
   • Stop behind 5100 is ideal, but you never know when price will start to reverse so read the market
   • Safe target is 5083, stretch is 5076, 3rd stretch is 5062 and if you are willing to hold ON you can target 5053
2. ~5083 (Record High)
   • LF Short
   • Looking for reversal
   • Stop behind 5086 is ideal
   • Safe target is 5062, stretch is 5053, 3rd stretch is 5043
3. ~5075
   • LF Short
   • Looking for reversal
   • Stop behind 5075 is a must
   • Safe target is 5061, stretch is 5053, 3rd stretch is 5046, 4th is 5042
4. ~5060 (ON High & Open)
   • LF Long
   • You are looking for a break out trade here, and the move should be very strong to take a trade here
   • Stop behind 5059 is ideal
   • Safe target is 5074, stretch is 5079
5. ~5060 (ON High & Open)
   • LF Short
   • Stop behind 5065 is ideal
   • Safe target is 5043, but watch the 50 area closely for any signs that you just shorted a pullback
   • Stretch target is ON low, 3rd stretch is 5031
6. ~5035 (ON Low)
   • LF Long
   • You are looking for a reversal
   • Stop behind 5039 is a must, behind 5035 is ideal
   • Safe target is 5054, but watch the 50 area closely
   • Stretch target is 5067
7. ~5035 (ON Low)
   • LF Long
   • You are looking for a revresal
   • Stop behind 5030 is ideal but might be tough to get
8. ~5025 (Previous Week Low)
   • LF Long
   • Stop behind 5024 is ideal
   • Target 37, 46, 54, 67
9. ~5010
   • LF Long
   • Reversal
   • Stop behind 5010 is a must
   • Target 24, 29, 37, 46

Keep in mind we have YHOO earnings post close so you might not want to hold ON


Psychology goals for the day

• 0 FOMO trades
• 0 Emotional trades
• Engage deliberate thinking in all trades
• Do not get greedy with your trades
• Abide by your trade management standard
• Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules
• Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods
• Maximum of 3 trades today, you know the 3rd trade rule
• All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups
• Do not look at P&L
• No trading while the market is flat

1 trade taken, a couple of setups passed.

First opportunity - Long & Short around ON High




My FOMO kicked in a bit here and I wanted to take a long trade. But honestly it didn't feel quite right. It would need to be breaking new all time highs for this trade to be worth the R/R.

Second opportunity - Short

Started to see some signs of a reversal, but it was about 4 points lower than I expected to see this type activity.
I made the conscious decision to pass up on this trade, as the entry point would've left me too exposed R/R wise.






In retrospect, my resistance area was a bit higher than it should've been.


Third opportunity - Long @ ~ ON Low

Market started to balance out ~ ON lows and I looked for an entry point. I didn't get in right away but I was going to be patient and not rush this trade.





Eventually I got filled but the market started dropping in seconds and I figured something was going on but my trade management doesn't allow me to exit the trade so I left itas is.






I got stopped out right away and the market dropped a couple of points more before picking back up. I wanted to get in on the trade at ~ the 33 mark, but I honestly wasn't sure if the market was going to keep dropping, or if the news was just enough to give the market some jitters. Taking the trade would've been me being stubborn just because the setup itself was good. Oh well.


Trade grade - Good

• It was in the plan
• Observed signs of entry
• Good target and stop

Psychology goals for the day

• 0 FOMO trades- Passed
• 0 Emotional trades- Passed
• Engage deliberate thinking in all trades- Passed
• Do not get greedy with your trades- Passed
• Abide by your trade management standard- Passed
• Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules- Passed
• Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods- Passed
• Maximum of 3 trades today, you know the 3rd trade rule- Passed
• All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups- Passed
• Do not look at P&L- Passed
• No trading while the market is flat- Passed

I have an appointment tomorrow morning, so I most likely won't trade.

See you Wednesday!

I'm going to be out of office for the majority of the day after the first hour of the session. I hope I can get into a trade before I have to leave

• Everything is in the green today
• Yesterday we hit record highs with very little resistance
• We are about to hit a record opening high
• QCOM up 1.2%, AVGO up 1%, PYPL up 1%, EBAY up 1.2% (after earnings), NVDA up 1.6%, TSLA up 1.2%
• DOW 20K potentially at the open
• Weekly range 95/124 ATR
• Volume has picked up

Scenarios

Making the scenarios much simpler today

1. Pullback at open and continue bull rally with a potential bull trend day
2. Strong bull from the open and continue bull rally with a potential bull trend day
3. Pullback in the open until ~ 5100, then continue bull from there

Setups I'll take today

1. Long ~ open
   • Look to see if the sentiment is still strongly bullish and get into a bull position. Hold until ~ end of day if bull trend day scenario happens or until ~ 5047
2. Long @ first pullback
   • Let market drop until we see some strong buying
   • Then follow same philosophy as above
3. Long @ ~ 5100
   • Stop behind 5095 is ideal
   • Target ~ 24 is safe, stretch is new record highs so manage trades accordingly

Things to watch

• Anytime Trump shows up on Bloomberg, it's likely to move the markets
• Dow 20K, and whether or not the market will pullback strongly after hitting that point

Psychology goals for today

• 0 FOMO trades
• 0 Emotional trades
• Engage deliberate thinking in all trades
• Do not get greedy with your trades
• Abide by your trade management standard
• Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules
• Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods
• Maximum of 3 trades today, you know the 3rd trade rule
• All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups
• Do not look at P&L
• No trading while the market is flat

It's crazy that I'm saying this but finally I hit my target for the first time this year.

I haven't taken that many trades but all of my trades were either losses or a break-even / slightly profitable and hit with a stop order. It does hurt your morale a bit to not hit your target for almost 3 weeks of trading, but sometimes your methodology isn't going to work very well with the type of market. To add to that, I'm not skilled enough as a trader yet to be able to adapt to different type of markets.

Here's the trade






Trade grade – Ok

• It may or may not have been part of my setup plans but at least aligned to my scenarios
• Some signs were there
• Decent (but not good) target and/or stop

The target was good, but the entry wasn't ideal

Psychology goals for the day

• 0 FOMO trades- Passed
• 0 Emotional trades- Passed
• Engage deliberate thinking in all trades- Passed
• Do not get greedy with your trades- Passed
• Abide by your trade management standard- Passed
• Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules- Passed
• Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods- Passed
• Maximum of 3 trades today, you know the 3rd trade rule- Passed
• All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups- Passed
• Do not look at P&L- Passed
• No trading while the market is flat- Passed

See you tomorrow!

Hi @SoftSoap,
Good job with hitting your target!

John