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@Jeremy1984, forgive me for going out on a limb here... I'm even more of a beginner than you, started my journey just this year... but it sounds like you need to get back to the basics.
The techniques you mention (Ichy, Fibs, Elliot, etc) have all been used with varying degrees of success by traders, but by themselves will be of no use if you don't have a solid foundation upon which to build. You're not going to get anywhere by putting the cart before the horse.
That's the problem with being a self-directed, self-instructed trader; there's no clear path for a beginner to follow and we're all left to our own devices to get it figured out. Quite nearly every other career path has a formal educational process behind it that ensures the knowledge fundamental to success is achieved... but trading is like the wild west.
A lot of guys (myself included) start out thinking that if they can just find someone's successful method and emulate it, they will be on their way to success and riches. Nothing could be further from the truth. You really do have to put forth the effort in understanding how it all works so it makes sense to you and fits your personality. Along the way, you will cull bits and pieces of information and methodology from others and be able to incorporate it into your own style, but ultimately you must make it your own.
One thing that has really helped me "fill in the cracks" in my own foundation was going through Adam Grimes' free video course. His book, The Art and Science of Technical Analysis, is of extremely high value (it's not free, but goes way more in-depth about the concepts and ideas presented in the video course.) https://www.marketlifetrading.com/
And if you're going to spend money, do yourself a HUGE favor and drop $100 on an FIO Elite membership. You'll find all the education and mentoring you need in the pages here, more than you might be able to believe.
Yet another sign up here, get this free, now be premium, give me your money, get spammed for life...I will check this out and see if it seems to have value.
I cannot ignore the irony of looking into Adam Grimes today for the first time and getting this on the very first video...
Merry Christmas, we are going premium, monthly fees, subscribers only yadda yadda yadda. Ugh.
The best way to learn is to simply look at the underlying data under different scenarios. If you are researching CL here are the steps I would recommend:
1. Download NinjaTrader if you don't have it already. It's free to use and a great tool to get access to the most granular tick data out there.
2. Download some market replay data for a few days. (This takes only a minute and there is great documentation on how to do this.)
3. Write a basic strategy that performs print statements on every bar update. Set the bar update level to something very granular such as 10 ticks or less. In the code block capture the bid price, ask price, bid volume, ask volume, and total transacted volume. You may also want to capture the (H,L,O,C) for every bar as well.
4. One day's worth of data will give you tens of thousands to potentially hundreds of thousands of rows of data to observe. With this you can start to connect the dots on how bid / ask volume, and bid ask prices move.
Start here, and analyze everything. From this you will start to understand how the basic mechanics work, and you can form your own insights.
Once you clear this first step. I recommend writing a simple strategy to place some basic entries and exits. Incorporate these into your print statistics as well. So you can track when and where you were entering and existing, and what the market was doing. How you got filled, where you ended up in the queue and how long you had to wait to get your order filled. This applies to both entries and exits.
From this you will very quickly be able to separate the good entries and exits from the bad ones and there is a huge correlation to how you are picking your entries and exits relative to how you end up getting on the right side or wrong side of things. Try every possible permutation of order type, entry and exit logic you can come up with, and test them all. Be skeptical of everything, don't believe anything you read or hear until you try it yourself, quantify it and understand how it works.
It may sound like a daunting task and it is, but this is the approached I used to crack the futures market and it works.
I got my membership on the third day. I think most people underestimate the value of it. I read many times in the hideout they paid thousands for this and that and still not being profitable and being a free member because they think the elite membership has no value. Dude, I see you joined 2 years ago and still here, despite being a free member, you still feel this site have no value? I’m out of words
@rintin2x, I believe he's referring to Adam's website.
@edward40, I agree, a healthy dose of skepticism goes a long ways in this business for sure. I don't know the guy personally, but Grimes' rep in this business is untarnished as far as I know. He's held in pretty high regard around these parts. After going through the coursework, I can see why.