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While I have no doubts about the unrealistic expectations and often foolish demands made by novice traders the bottom line is that hindsight trading is next to useless. Drawing neat trendlines after all the market swings have been made does perhaps have some value but not much. Mack's videos would be far more useful if he traded at the hard right edge on a REGULAR BASIS, does not have to be live, does not have to be every day, even one day a week would be far more valuable than the almost daily 20/20 content he now produces. Yes, his videos are free but they are also a marketing tool, nothing wrong with this but let's call a spade a spade.
Furthermore, vendors need to put up or shut up, Dean Jenkins provides annual audited returns on his website. There is no valid reason why other vendors cannot do the same, NONE. Yes, perhaps anything can be faked or altered but this does not mean customers should grope around in the dark, especially when the barriers to entry in this business are practically nil.
I have analyzed numerous hedge fund and CTA prospectuses, I used to have a portfolio of over 25 managers, back when there was sufficient harvestable alpha in the markets. I have probably done due diligence on over 200 managers, I used a custom 30ish page checklist I personally developed over the years. I cannot remember one manager who did not provide audited returns or at least pro-forma returns. I can assure that you that any manager soliciting investments and unwilling to provide the aforementioned would be shunned for life. I think the trading community should treat vendors in same fashion, moreso the ones charging multiple thousands of dollars.
You are absolutely correct. The one point where I see an exception is the guy is selling a $90 pamphlet. And you don't really need it to figure out what he is doing. I just don't see where he is minting any significant coin off of his efforts at explaining how he trades. A recording of a weekly live trade would be great. That is one of the big reasons I listen to FuturesTrader 71 every morning because he always shows yesterdays scenarios against what really happened.
Somebody was being critical of Dr. Van Tharp because he isn't a great trader. But they are different skill sets, coaching and playing. Not all great coaches were hall of fame players. Watershed event for me was reading the story of the Turtle Traders. Same selection criteria to be a trader, same training, same starting accounts yet totally different results. Proved to me that a very successful and legendary trader was no good at developing new talent.
But the very very valid point you make is the way retail is treated by the industry and the regulators. People on this site have identified many out right frauds over the years. Public prognosticators never disclose their track records. If CNBC showed the win loss rate on past public calls by the people being on air, well I am pretty sure they would have to shut down for lack of guests. There was an advisory service that kept a track record of public calls by newsletter writers and TV personalities. pretty disappointing. But as long as money and politics are involved the regulators will never act to save the small people from the snake oil salesmen. I figure the people who can get hurt are the ones who just know enough to be a danger to themselves and haven't figured out yet that the personality making calls game is rigged.
FT 71 and Mack at PATS do have something in common. They both go all in and then start taking scalps out leaving a runner. Yes their styles are different but that strategy they share. Many posters keep saying they don't understand scalping out and leaving a runner. Some sat they think it is nonsensical. I personally think that if you do not see how something can work it does not mean that it doesn't.
Hi
I have not watched FT 71 much, but I remember one presentation were he scaled in ( to a winner) and presented the value of doing so.
Has that changed?
I started day trading the ES this year after I discovered Mack and PATs. Bought the manual and practiced every day. I used real money to start, actually had it set up so that I was looking at the ES chart but I would buy and sell SPY since I felt an ES contract was too much for me. As you would expect of someone starting fresh with trading the ES, I didn't do well the first few months.
Then I switched over to SIM and continued practicing every day. I also took less trades. Mack himself says that you only need two or three good trades a day to make it. I saw my results getting better, but I was still having some difficulty.
Then I discovered John Grady and No BS Day Trading, and his stuff on the DOM and order flow, and I really, really liked his philosophy and what he taught. So I implemented that into what I was already doing with PATs. And since the micro minis came out, I've been trading them.
So now I am trading live with the micros on Sierra Chart with a 2000 tick chart next to a DOM, combining both PATs and reading order flow. I find that PATs gives me a very good read on context, while order flow helps me fine-tune and zero in on setups. Occasionally I'll still take a trade based off the chart alone according to PATs rules, but I'm finding that most of the time I am focused first on order flow and second on the price action on the chart. Obviously it works best when both are pointing in the right direction, e.g we've pulled back to the trend line, a second entry short is forming, and orders aren't hitting offers as aggressively and bids are starting to get taken out with significant volume.
So I like and recommend PATs. I found it very helpful and foundational to my trading. I think Mack is a solid and sincere guy, and I do think his system can work. For me, I just found the DOM so much more helpful on top of what I had already learned from PATs.
Oh, and I started live trading like this (PATs + order flow) on June 27. Been profitable every day since July 25, averaging 2.07 points per day. I think it would be higher if I had a swing portion in addition to my scalps, but I've only been trading one micro contract, so I scalp out for 3-5 ticks a lot.
EDIT - I've also found that using order flow has allowed me to reduce risk a lot. Mack has you put your stop below what he (and Al Brooks) calls a "signal bar," with a maximum allowable stop of 2 points. Scalping for a point while risking two points was tough because losses were very hard to recover from. With order flow, I'm often able to get much smaller stops, by either picking a level that I think should hold or going with the momentum so that I "get the edge" and price never goes back against me. John Grady talks more about this in his class.
I am considering Mack's PAT pdf book now that I have watched his videos for a while and interested in understanding more. Is there any where I can look at the table of contents for the book to at least see what it covers?
Please don't read this in a condescending tone, but it is only $99.00 and you should probably just bite the bullet. I think you'll find the manual fairly informative and certainly worth the money, plus there is enough information in the PATS threads to expand on his ideas.
I got the manual years ago now and I don't trade like PATS anymore, but it was pretty well put together but certainly no frills.
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- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
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Certainly. I worked on my own method and strategy, therefore PATS became surplus to my requirements.
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- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
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