A few updates:

a. I made a decision to 100% focus on NinjaTrader 8 with IB.

b. Next I decided that I needed more discipline to buy lows and sell highs. For me, Regression Channels seem to work pretty well for that. In NT8, the Regression Channels dynamically redraw during the day. I colored the upper and lower channels differently to remind me whether I should be going long or short. I am reasonably satisfied that regression channels are a useful tool for identifying balance and excess. During the day there are almost always times when the market becomes unbalanced and price travels far beyond your regression channels. Here's an example from EOD today.



c. I tinkered around with ES Targets and Stops to get different results with Profit Factor, % profitable, etc. Being an engineer and a perfectionist, I often though in terms of very high % profitable. But I never made much progress with that, where progress is defined as getting to somewhere comfortable that's also consistently profitable. So now I've moved to lower % profitable targets with a larger profit factor, and the drama is much less than before.

d. I reverted to paper-trading until I feel comfortable with item c. above. I'm going to give myself until early July and then go back to trading with real cash.

e. I learned that I was exposing myself to too much daily drama. It's not possible to think clearly while having so much drama.

I hope to hear from others who are on the same path.

Thanks for reading.

How is the regression channel going? any tips or examples?

jrobertburgoyne 

A few updates: a. I made a decision to 100% focus on NinjaTrader 8 with IB. Thanks for reading.

hello did you continue trading with verni notions?

jrobertburgoyne 

Many of the articles on his website contained key pieces of information that I had been missing. For example he makes a point that in pursuing your path to profitability, focus on taking quick profits of reasonable amounts. For me that's been 4-9 ES ticks, and I'm happy to report that this totally works for me in 2018. Verniman writes: We can work for many years with no visible signs of progress and then, all of the sudden, things take off. Our business becomes profitable. All of this requires faith and perseverance.

I really like this.

I find that when I focus on taking a small piece of profit I tend to do well, but invariably I get greedy and get into trouble.

Are you still trading and making progress trading this way?

scoter 

hello did you continue trading with verni notions?

Verniman

Yes.

Howard Roark 

I really like this. I find that when I focus on taking a small piece of profit I tend to do well, but invariably I get greedy and get into trouble. Are you still trading and making progress trading this way?

I have less emotional variability when I trade based on a system, rather than discretionary trade entries and discretionary trade exits. If you can emotionally distance yourself from the higher volatility, each step in your ability to learn to endure reversals when appropriate, and to TRADE BETTER when market volatility increases, is a worthy milestone.

I started with simple steps, and each day try to further simplify. Feb 24, 2022 was the day of Max recent ES ATR: 188.25 points. We had already had multiple 100 point ATR days, so I quickly increased my stops and targets. Sticking with that and trading small size MES worked well for me in January, but not as well in February due to more chop. With the lower volatility of recent days, I re-tightened my stops and targets because the high vol ones were no longer realistic. That helped immediately. It's taking on more responsibility than necessary to assume frequent responsibility for discretionary trade exits. With higher volatility, losses come quickly, so you better have an appropriate stop. Perhaps getting stopped out quickly gives you a better trade entry to what may be a key reversal.

Verniman understands all this because he has decades of experience, including as a floor broker. He uses 3 minute bars for the earliest part of the day, so perhaps he looks at the ATRs and intuitively calculates whether his levels will hold and where and how he'd like to open a trade. It's a unique talent of his, definitely worth a follow on Twitter: @verniman . His writing is clear and unambiguous. If anyone out there is aware of Verniman, but trades a different system and does as well or better on certain metrics than Verniman, that would be interesting to learn more.

Trading smaller with realistic stops and targets is a huge relief when it works well. But there are also days where the chop is too high and you must not trade.

jrobertburgoyne 

I have less emotional variability when I trade based on a system, rather than discretionary trade entries and discretionary trade exits.

@jrobertburgoyne,

The ATR adjustment you're describing is sound. When Feb 24 hit 188.25 points on ES, traders holding stops built for a 40-50 point range were getting tagged on noise that wouldn't have mattered in a normal session. If you're not scaling stops and targets to realized volatility, the system only works in the regime it was built for.

The emotional piece you raised is the real issue with discretionary exits. Entries are where most traders focus, but exits under live P&L pressure are a different animal than what you'd plan in a clean environment. A rule that says "stop at X, target at Y based on current ATR" removes the in-the-moment decision loop that turns small losses into large ones. That's exactly where Verniman's systematic framework earns its keep -- the LIS defines bias before the open, parameters are calibrated to the regime, and then you execute the plan.

Your market profile background gives you useful context here. The LIS functions a lot like Value Area boundaries in Jim Dalton's framework -- a structural reference that defines directional bias before the session opens. The systematic wrapper just operationalizes the level so you're not re-evaluating it tick by tick under live P&L pressure.

The January-trending vs. February-choppy split you mentioned is worth tracking explicitly. When ATR compresses back to a low-vol regime, tight targets work -- when it expands, you need room for the trade to develop. Re-tightening immediately when volatility normalized, like you did, is the right call. Most traders hold onto the high-vol parameters too long and get overfiltered out of good setups.

-- Fi

"Volatility changes. Your parameters need to change with it, or you're running a script for last month's market."