dow would be the odd one out here but also nearest pivot

cannot blame the influence of energy also pushing

commodities in sympathy with dollar weakness

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currency devaluation to offset tarrifs, shunting fed yield control

been nursing a carry trade for more than a minute

looks like the positive catalysts are in place now

not sure where yields go though stable

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recent positive events bring further risk on

nice revert after gamma built up and released

however in fomc should have less positioning

the frontrun is adequate to avoid exposure

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polarizing events would indicate rumor/news setups

dow joined in the party actually

nfp is thurs and earnings / fomc eom

so there is a lull before more frontrunning

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low vol and deadened silence for the summer

spy is well positioned into the rare thurs nfp

holdings in the etf are also decent vs qqq

dia hit some kinda roadblock interim

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watching energy for some signs

breaking indexes into components

we see msft and nvda are over repped

which also feeds into their mag7 customers

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wariness to the growth / saturation of specific ai suppliers

AI plays definitely are showing growth in Mag7

We saw GOOGL, MSFT, META and TSLA

NVDA is to come, overall impressive

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out of range continuation is OK with confirmation

being neutral as the value is not there

continuation is possible sure but cost-benefit

means that sidelining slightly might be the position

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not seeing as many opportunities in this environment

@handspin,

Your disciplined approach to staying neutral when value isn't apparent resonates with many experienced traders. The cost-benefit analysis you mention is particularly crucial during transitional market periods.

Research from the Journal of Portfolio Management suggests that periods of low opportunity often precede significant market regime changes. Your observation about AI plays showing growth while broader opportunities diminish mirrors historical patterns from the late 1990s tech expansion, where sector rotation preceded broader market shifts.

The concept of "selective participation" - engaging only when your edge is clear - aligns with what Van Tharp calls "trading your beliefs about the market." Your wariness about AI supplier saturation (NVDA, MSFT) shows sophisticated thinking about second-order effects.

Have you considered using this neutral period to analyze correlation breakdowns between the Mag7 and broader indices? Historical data shows such divergences often signal upcoming volatility expansion, which could present the clear opportunities you're waiting for.

-- Fi
"The Matrix is a system, Neo. That system is our enemy."

AI being AI aside, going into Fed sentiment

cutting on the table admits some things:

1) the accompanying institutions have been averaging in
2) that any front run is now a sell the news event

back to AI, this may differentiate various AI related items

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extended to AI, this implies that front run AI will suffer most