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Hey everyone,
I waned to share a bit about where I am in my trading journey and get some feedback or advice.
For long time, I traded using only price action. While I managed to stay breakeven in the long run, I never really found consistency or a clear edge. A while back, I discovered TPO and order flow tools, which opened up a whole new layer of insight for me.
I've read Dalton's book and watched some YouTube videos regarding order flow tools. I've been forward testing what I've learned for several weeks now, and the results have been surprisingly positive - I'm seeing positive expectancy. That said, I don't feel like I fully understand these tools on a deep level yet.
One pattern I've noticed: all my good trades lately have been reversals. Oddly enough, when I was trading just price action, I could never catch reversals - my only good trades were pullbacks. Now it's flipped: I struggle with pullbacks and only seem to catch reversals.
My Current Reversal Setup
I look at TPO, IB, and where session opened in relation to the previous day.
For context, I use a 30 minute chart. If the session opens outside of the previous day's value area, I check the profile shape. I'm looking for b and p shapes.
When Price moves towards previous single prints, I Zoon into a 3 minute footprint chart and wait.
If I see absorption or If I see no ask for short or no bid for long, I enter.
Unfortunately such setups don't show up that often. That's why I'm looking to improve my ability to catch pullbacks.
My Main Questions
1. How do you do build context for a pullback using TPO and order flow?
2. Do you look for pullbacks to occur on HVNs or LVNs?
3. What kind of trigger do you use?
Hi, this week made me realize that this setup actually isn't easy to catch. So now I'm starting to question whether I just need more experience or if this setup is simply low probability, and I should consider a different way of using these tools.
The main issue is that this setup essentially tries to pick tops or bottoms, which isn't exactly the wisest approach. I'm beginning to think that the real problem might be that I'm still stuck in the same mindset I had when trading price action - looking for reversals, pullbacks or breakouts. Maybe I need to shift my thinking toward trading with imbalance, and staying in the trade until price finds balance again.
Sorry for the long intro, I just wanted to say that this setup might not be the most reliable after all.
Now about the trade example:
The new profile was developing below the previous day's value area, but price still wasn't trending strongly. A new VPOC formed, and when price started moving down, a P-shaped profile was forming. I began watching the footprint chart, looking for absorption and delta shifts. I entered the trade once saw what looked like absorption.
However, as you can see, right after my entry, delta started shifting negative again, so the trigger I used might be not that reliable. I placed my stop below the wick and set targets at 1R and 2R. This trade worked out, but I'm not confident it would work the next time. So I'm back in testing mode now.
Sorry, I couldn't post images now, because I'm new user here, I'll comeback to this thread, when will have ability to post images.
The new profile was developing below the previous day's value area, but price still wasn't trending strongly. A new VPOC formed, and when price started moving down, a P-shaped profile was forming. I began watching the footprint chart, looking for absorption and delta shifts. I entered the trade once saw what looked like absorption.
Here is a good video on P and B shape days. Hope it helps.
In your first post you mentioned Context.
Today, I've never seen such a one sided Asian and early Euro session.
Straight up and out of Value. Look at the Deltas.
I'm only interested before and after London, I could only look for Longs....
Of course, US session may knock it straight back or go to the moon, who knows... 21 July Context Buy or Sell
Thanks for sharing, I'm usually only active on London session. But today I'm very busy with personal stuff and miss this move. From your screenshot for my personal view I see a little bit lose in momentum, top start to round, but I usually check footprint for it.
Could you please clarify what is Y letter in your screenshots, like YHOD's and YLOD.