20250723 pre market



News
10:00 numbers
10:30 crude
13:00 bond auction

Condition 1
Breakout from 3 week balance is intact
but not much pressure in market

Condition 0
gap up
open near poor swing h
oni long

Thoughts
Use good spots and small targets in low pressure market

goog and tsla earnings amc

20250723 recap



first buy at vwao after oni liqudation
second buy at gap fill

same as day before:
liquidation in A
rest up

20250724 pre market



News
09:45 numbers
10:00 numbers

Condition 1
breakout of 3 week balance

Condition 0
eth explored a little higher but not much
small gap up

Thoughts
Wait for a opportunity to ake a few points on the long side

20250724 recap



2 scalps long, both stopped out
market grinded sideways to up

Still bullish but needs some time to balance

20250725 pre market



News
Discussions about EU trade deal

Condition 1
breaking out of 3w balance
yesterday neutral day which is a form of short term balance
> a break below this would be interesting

Condition 0
eth confirms short term balance

Thoughts
I am not interested in shorts
I am only interested in longs after a shake at least below yesterday low

20250804 pre market



News
10:00 factory orders

Condition 1
2 days of selling with a test of an interesting level (low of 3 week balance and yearly vwap sd1)
I have no idea if the selling is done (and this level holds) or if we see more selling

As always, use milestones (for example the gap) to judge what happens

Condition 0
We open 0,6% higher near fridays h which could bring some sellers in trouble especially if we find accepance in the gap

Thoughts
We are in a very NEWSY market
So do not rely too heavely on technicals

20250804 recap

20250805 pre market



News
09:45 numbers
10:00 numbers
13:00 bond auction

Condition 1
For now the 2 day liquidation gets bought

Condition 0
Open with small gap up

20250805 recap


We came in high and looked strong the first minutes
Then we failed and liquidated
But shorts were not able to follow through

20250806 pre market



News
10;30 crude
13:00 10y auction

Condition 1
The narrative of the dip that gets bought is not over but damaged a bit with yesterdays liquidation
As we know tops in the market (as opposed to bottoms) tend to develop slowly
I have no bias, i take it step by step

Condition 0
we open in middle of yesterdays range
> trade later

Thoughts
Expect chop in yesterdays belly
Watch what happens at its edges