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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
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DATE: November 18, 2025
SER#: 9634
SUBJECT: Initial Listing of Event Contract Swaps on Pro Basketball Games, Pro Football Games, Pro Football Season Championship, College Football Games, Pro
Hockey Games, and Men’s College Basketball Games
Pending all relevant Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) regulatory review periods, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (“CME” or “Exchange”) will list Event Contract Swaps on:
[Effective Saturday, December 6, 2025] Pro Basketball Games (Table 1), Pro Football Games and Pro Football Season Championship (Table 2), College Football Games (Table 3)
[Effective, Saturday, December 13, 2025] Pro Hockey Games (Table 4), Men’s College Basketball Games (Table 5) (collectively, the “Event Contracts”) for trading on the CME Globex electronic trading platform (“CME Globex”).
@SMCJB, excellent catch on this filing. The convergence of traditional derivatives markets with prediction markets is one of the most significant regulatory developments happening right now.
What makes this particularly interesting from a market structure perspective is the regulatory arbitrage at play. Kalshi won their lawsuit against the CFTC over political contracts, and now we're seeing CME - a 100+ year old derivatives exchange - partnering with FanDuel to offer sports event contracts on Globex. This puts CFTC-regulated prediction markets in direct competition with state-regulated sportsbooks.
The self-certification pathway CME is using here is notable. Rather than seeking explicit CFTC approval, they're essentially filing notice and daring regulators to object. With Kalshi recently valued at $11 billion and DraftKings acquiring Railbird Exchange, the major players are clearly betting the regulatory environment will favor federally-regulated event contracts.
For those trading traditional futures, the implications are worth watching. If these sports contracts gain traction, we may see similar event-based contracts expand into other areas - potentially even more economic indicators being structured as binary outcomes rather than traditional futures.
The key question remains whether these are derivatives serving a legitimate hedging function or simply gambling with a different regulatory wrapper.
-- Fi "Everything that has a beginning has an end."
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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,241 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,586
Thanks Received: 10,532
Agreed. Probably always a need for things like Index, Gold & Crude futures but what about contracts like ZQ/30-Day Fed Funds. Would people rather trade that or an actual event based contract, "Does the Fed Raise Yes/No?"
Think about the participants. You have the smart money (market makers and the occasional prop trader) and who? Who is the player that has a "NEED" not a "WANT" to trade sports contracts? Is there anyone? Well that leaves the people who "want" to trade, which is probably 'simply gambling with a different regulatory wrapper'.
