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CONDITION 1
3 week balance
Friday Liquidation break that finally took out the balance area low
CONDITION 0
We open above the liquidation belly
oni is long
THOUGHTS
My breakout did not work
But much more important is that we see that the market does what it is supposed to do
It cleans up that weak structure
Liquidation strenghtens a market so it fits that we see this market higher today
As always anything can happen
CONDITION 0
we tested lower
came back in
but fell back so that we open near the poor and weak low
THOUGHTS
Interesting open
IF !! we see ACCEPTANCE below the balance area there is overhead supply from 3 weeks trading
The easier scenarion would be to look below and fail which would be a good buying point
The challenge is to filter out the noise and see if one of these scenarios plays out
Use milestones for judgment
Expect chop
Tough to trade
Context was max bearish because we saw acceptance below the 3w balance
But marked had a hard time to go lower
we saw not much follow through and strong retracements
The reason is clear. Sectors were divergent. Especially Tech, the biggest sector with >30% of SPX, did not fall.
In future i will call this scenario "Neutral down"
And the sectors get a more prominent place on my screen.
Trading is an art, not a science
As trading is much too complex to solve it with rules like "when x do y" i collected for myself a list of what i call CONCEPTS
Much experience is needed to judge on a given day which concepts are in affect and in which intensity
Knowing that after the fact it is easy to explain and same combination can play out different next time i given an example regarding yesterdays low of day.
CONDITION 0
we come in higher
clearly above fridays liquidation belly
oni is long
we open at the top of the onr
THOUGHTS
In the last weeks we were not able to make new highs
We often saw mixed sectors with weak tech which made the market very choppy and unclean
We have to see what the new year brings
