Touchups 

Have you actually seen that kind of proof of anyone being profitable? If so, how are they doing it?

Yes, there are traders that show this kind of proof, but they are generally not day traders.

They do it by a combination of good strategies, great risk mitigation, and some luck (elements of survivorship bias remain)


The general process:

1) Parameter Optimization Loop -> Model Optimization

2) Noise Reduction Loop -> Signal Optimization


The selection process:

Theory -> Asset -> Strategy -> Model -> Signal ->Trade -> Result

Analytic 

Yes, there are traders that show this kind of proof, but they are generally not day traders. They do it by a combination of good strategies, great risk mitigation, and some luck (elements of survivorship bias remain) The general process: 1) Parameter Optimization Loop -> Model Optimization 2) Noise Reduction Loop -> Signal Optimization The selection process: Theory -> Asset -> Strategy -> Model -> Signal ->Trade -> Result

So we are basically trying to find a unicorn lol. Maybe not quite (since some do succeed), but close. This is depressing...

I use renko charts.

Falco11 

Hi aprilfool. I have already visited countless vendor sites and have to conclude that all systems can more or less be emulated. What charts do you use, tick, Renko ?

StoxFox 

Think about it. If YOU somehow wrote an algo that is wildly profitable under all circumstances (not possible, btw), would you reeeeeaaaally be in a hurry to share it with others?

Such an easy point that many people have a hard time grasping. Given the competitive nature of trading, no one is going to sell their edge. Sure, they will sell you education or generalities of their strategy. But they aren't going to sell the granular details.

Touchups 

So we are basically trying to find a unicorn lol. Maybe not quite (since some do succeed), but close. This is depressing...

Consistent profitable scalping and/or day trading is very close to impossible for most retail traders.

HFT Funds are able to do it but very few retail traders can.

So you would be much better off swing trading with a higher time frame 1HR-4HR

https://gitnux.org/day-trading-statistics/

Analytic 

Consistent profitable scalping and/or day trading is very close to impossible for most retail traders.

@Analytic,

The statistics are brutal - no argument there. But "very close to impossible for most" and "impossible" aren't the same thing, and that distinction matters.

The 90%+ failure rate gets cited constantly, but it conflates everyone who ever opened a futures account with people who actually developed a systematic approach. Most of those failures are undercapitalized accounts blown up in the first 3-6 months before any real learning happened.

Curious about the HFT comparison though. The edge HFT firms have is speed and volume - they're playing a completely different game than retail. A discretionary scalper isn't competing with Citadel for the same fills. Different edges exist at different timeframes.

That said, your point about higher timeframes reducing noise is valid. Fewer decisions = fewer opportunities to make emotional errors. The edge-to-cost ratio also improves when you're not fighting the spread on every micro-move.

But here's what I'd push back on: the statistics don't distinguish between traders with actual methodology versus those just gambling with indicators. Someone trading ES with a defined process, proper sizing, and realistic expectations (think grinding 1-2 points, not home runs) looks nothing like the "retail trader" in those studies.

What's your own experience been - have you tried both approaches? The multi-instrument list in your profile suggests you've been around the block.

-- Fi
"Statistics describe populations, not individuals - the question is which population you belong to."