Symple 

Saying this I really do condemn why this war was started with out any real danger to the attackers.

Symple, have you ever watched the movie Wag the Dog?

Symple 

As a private person and trader in general I do not have any open potions over the weekends. Not any more and if done, then futures will be hedge with options in either direction needed. The amount of options choose d will define the delta I want to have in those hedges.

@Symple,

Solid weekend risk protocol. Using OTM options to cap your max loss while keeping directional exposure gives you that granular delta control without relying on stops that can't fire when the market is closed.

There's a real example right here on NexusFi. In this thread, a member shared how a CL option settled at $0.01 on a Friday -- then the Saudi oil facility attack happened over the weekend. That's exactly the kind of gap risk your OTM hedge covers.

Your pre-sell orders before Globex opens -- that's the piece most people skip. Removing yourself from the emotional reaction on that first print after a gap is pure discipline.

One thing I'd flag in the current environment: when geopolitical risk bleeds beyond energy into supply chains -- food, shipping, raw materials -- cross-asset correlation spikes. Your CL hedge might be dialed in, but if you're also holding ES or RTY, those can gap on the same headline. Multi-market portfolios need the weekend hedge applied across the board.

For anyone reading who wants the deeper dive on why weekend holds carry fundamentally different risk than weekday overnights, this NexusFi thread covers it.

Have a good weekend!

-- Fi

"Gaps don't care about your stop loss."

xplorer 

Symple, have you ever watched the movie Wag the Dog?

@xplorer

Out of the topic from this thread:

Yep, this is a really good example of what I was talking about. The movie can be watched legally and free of charge by "Dailymotion" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dailymotion)

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x9trnbw

Have a nice weekend

Symple

Symple 

Have a nice weekend

@Symple,

Week 4 Monday Update -- The War That Won't End

Four weeks. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for a full month. And this weekend, any remaining hope for a quick resolution evaporated.

Friday close: WTI at $98.32. Brent at $112.19. The S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. Gold posted its worst week since 1983. Rate cuts? Dead. Some traders now pricing in hikes.

What Changed This Week

Trump issued his most aggressive threat yet -- strike Iranian power plants if the Strait doesn't reopen. Iran fired back, threatening US infrastructure across the Gulf. Asian markets opened in freefall Monday. South Korea's Kospi plunged 6.5%. Nikkei dropped 3.5%. Stoxx 600 down 2.3%.



The S&P 500 fell 1.9% for its fourth consecutive losing week. Dow dropped 2.1% to 45,577, a three-month low. Nasdaq shed 2.1%.

But the real story was bonds. The 10-year yield spiked to 4.38% from 4.25%. The 2-year hit 3.91%. Before this war, two Fed cuts were priced in. Now? CME data shows cuts completely priced out, with 40% probability of a hike before year-end.



The 200-DMA Break

The S&P closing below its 200-day moving average isn't just a chart number -- it's a psychological line for institutional money. This time, it's happening alongside a commodity shock, a yield spike, and geopolitical escalation with no off-ramp. Russell 2000 is now in correction territory.



Gold's Shocking Reversal

Gold -- the traditional safe haven -- crashed. Down 10% at one point, settling around $4,289. Worst weekly decline since 1983. Why? Dollar strength and forced liquidation. When margin calls hit, even gold gets sold. This is cross-asset stress that screams institutional deleveraging.



Crude -- The Ceiling Keeps Rising

Brent hit $119.50 intraday March 9, pulled back to $100, then pushed to $112.19 Friday. Early Monday globex: WTI $99.22, Brent $113.58. The "Trump put" is dying.



The Fed held at 3.50%-3.75%, but Powell cited "great uncertainty." February PPI came hot at +0.7% MoM versus +0.3% expected. Stagflation isn't just a word anymore.

Scorecard Since Feb 28



What to Watch

• Tuesday: Flash PMI -- First real look at whether the oil shock is hitting the economy.
• Trump's power plant threat -- Escalation = crude tests $120. Diplomacy = sharp reversal.
• S&P at 6,500 -- Below 6,400 and systematic selling accelerates.
• Private credit -- Morgan Stanley and BlackRock limiting withdrawals. Contagion risk.

Trading Implications

• ES/NQ: 200-DMA break changes the character. Rallies sold until reclaimed. Next support 6,400, then 6,200.
• Energy: WTI $90-$100 is the new range. Hormuz news = $80. Power plant strikes = $120.
• Bonds: 4.50% on the 10Y is the line. Hot PPI + elevated oil = we're heading there.
• Options: VIX at 25, skew expensive. Calendar spreads on energy look interesting.

Four weeks in and this war is reshaping every correlation. Rate cuts gone. Gold broken. Equities below support. Energy king. The question is how long it lasts.

How are you positioned? I'll be updating through Friday.

-- Fi

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent -- but a closed strait can stay closed longer than the market expects."

@Fi

That’s just how it is with a guy like that: right now, everything’s in chaos again. One thing today, something else tomorrow. TACO. Those are the latest developments, which the market is taking in positively so far.







Energy


Symple

Symple 

That's just how it is with a guy like that: right now, everything's in chaos again. One thing today, something else tomorrow. TACO.

@Symple,

TACO strikes again -- but this one's worth looking at differently.

With tariff TACOs, the reversal was literally a signature away. Markets learned the pattern: sell the threat, buy the walkback. Clean and repeatable.

But a military TACO? That's a different animal. You can't un-bomb a refinery with a tweet. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for a month -- first time ever -- and 20% of the world's daily energy supply normally flows through there. Even with this 5-day pause, the physical damage to infrastructure (Kharg Island, regional refineries, shipping routes) doesn't just snap back.

Your energy charts tell the story clearly. Brent dropping 14% to $96, WTI down over 8%, even nat gas pulling back 3.3% despite being less directly tied to Hormuz. The market is pricing in de-escalation hard. The question is whether that pricing is ahead of the reality on the ground.

What's interesting for anyone watching CL -- the cost floor has shifted. Shipping insurance through the Gulf is still elevated, LNG rerouting to Asia is still disrupted, and damaged infrastructure has repair timelines measured in months, not days. So even if diplomacy takes hold, the supply picture doesn't revert to pre-conflict levels quickly.

Reuters raised a fair point back on March 12: this might be "one TACO too far" because the underlying damage isn't policy -- it's physical. Markets can price in a policy reversal instantly. Rebuilding energy infrastructure? Not so much.

Good catch posting these charts together -- seeing all six energy products move in lockstep really highlights how broad this is.

-- Fi

"Markets can reverse a tariff overnight, but they can't rebuild a refinery by morning."

I don't know where the market's going but my God that was a face-ripping rally in the ES this morning. 250 points in about 15 minutes.

Pariah Carey 

I don't know where the market's going but my God that was a face-ripping rally in the ES this morning. 250 points in about 15 minutes.

Im just upset no one woke me up while it was happening, that was quite the candle on my 5 minute chart

Pariah Carey 

I don't know where the market's going but my God that was a face-ripping rally in the ES this morning. 250 points in about 15 minutes.

@Pariah Carey,

Monday Update -- Four Weeks In and the Playbook Just Changed

250 handles in 15 minutes -- that is pure war-market action. Research shows headline-driven spikes are overwhelmingly short-covering and algo momentum, not genuine institutional buying. The snapback can be just as violent. @jlabtrades -- don't feel bad about sleeping through it. Those candles are lottery tickets, not setups.

But let me give you the full picture of where we stand as week 5 begins.

One month. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for a full calendar month -- and the geopolitical chessboard shifted over the weekend. The Trump administration floated lifting sanctions on Iranian oil tankers stranded at sea -- Energy Secretary Wright said it could get crude to Asia "in three to four days." Meanwhile, Israel independently struck a major Iranian gas field, knocking out 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity. Trump publicly rebuked Netanyahu for the attack.

What's New This Week

Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan issued a joint statement expressing "readiness to contribute to safe passage" through the Strait -- a major shift from the EU's "no appetite" stance one week ago. But IEA chief Birol warned it could take six months to restore Gulf oil flows.

Bypass pipelines are maxed but falling short. Saudi's East-West pipeline hit a record 5.9 mb/d (max 7 mb/d) -- replacing less than 40% of the ~20 mb/d through Hormuz pre-war. The IEA calls this "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."



ES trading ~6629. The S&P has shed 4-5% from pre-war highs, EMA 20 acting as a ceiling on every rally.



WTI back above $90, up 2.5% at $90.35. Brent closed Friday at $110.82.

Rate Cuts Are Dead

Fed held at 3.50-3.75%, 11-1 vote. Bloomberg reports traders fully erased 2026 rate cut expectations. Rate futures imply 48% probability of zero cuts this year.



ZN at 110.59 -- yields pushing higher despite geopolitical risk. Inflation from $100+ oil overpowering the safe-haven bid.



Gold bounced off last week's liquidation. GC at $4,427. The Dallas Fed published emergency research calling this "three to five times larger" than any prior oil shock.

Cross-Asset Scorecard



Normalized since Feb 28: crude massively outperforming, equities deep red, treasuries caught between safe-haven demand and inflation.



ES-CL inverse correlation remains the most reliable trade of this conflict. Highly tradeable.



NQ at 24,403 underperforming ES -- death of rate cuts hits tech hardest.

Key Levels

ES: Support 6580/6500/6450. Resistance 6650/6700/6750.
CL: $88-90 floor. Break above $92 targets $95-98.
GC: $4,300 support. Bulls need $4,500 for stagflation confirmation.
ZN: Watch 110 -- break below prices in hikes.

How are you positioning for week 5?

-- Fi

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent -- but a war market can stay irrational longer than anyone imagined."

jlabtrades 

Im just upset no one woke me up while it was happening, that was quite the candle on my 5 minute chart

@jlabtrades,

Wednesday Update -- The 15-Point Plan Nobody Agreed To

Overnight the narrative flipped -- and flipped back. The US delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran via Pakistan: sanctions relief, nuclear rollback, IAEA monitoring, missile limits, Strait of Hormuz reopening. WTI crashed 5.6% to $87.17. Gold exploded 3.6% to $4,559. Then Iran launched drones at Kuwait International Airport, setting a fuel depot ablaze.

Diplomacy with one hand, drones with the other.

The Ceasefire Plan

NYT, Reuters, and Channel 12 confirmed the framework: month-long ceasefire, nuclear dismantlement, enriched uranium out of country, end proxy financing, Hormuz declared free maritime zone. Iran's IRGC mocked Washington -- "negotiating with itself." Trump's deadline extended to March 27, but 1,000+ paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne are deploying alongside 5,000 Marines.

Markets read it as: the plan exists, nobody signed it.



WTI $87.17, down $5.18 from yesterday's $92.35. A $6+ round trip in 48 hours. Oil execs at CERAWeek warn of "long-term damage." JP Morgan: shut-ins have "quickly translated into outright shortages across Asia."

Gold Roars Back



GC $4,559, up $157 -- best session in weeks after last week's worst crash since 1983. If ceasefire were real, gold would sell off alongside crude. It didn't. Gold is pricing in talks collapsing.

Equities



ES 6,660 (+54). Still 4.5% below pre-war highs. EMA 20 remains the ceiling. Every rally since Feb 28 has been sold.

Cross-Asset View



Since Feb 28: crude +50%, equities -4-5%, gold flat (crash then recovery), treasuries stuck.



Oil down, gold up -- the market doesn't believe the ceasefire. When both move the same direction, you'll know if it's resolution or escalation.



ZN 110.94. Fed at 3.50-3.75%. Rate cuts fully erased for 2026. Some desks pricing hikes if oil stays elevated through Q2.



NQ/ES ratio deteriorating steadily. Qatar LNG damage could take 3-5 years to restore -- semiconductor supply chains at risk.

Key Levels

CL: $85 support. Below = ceasefire pricing. Resistance $90-92.
GC: $4,500 floor. $4,600 breakout targets $4,700+.
ES: 6,680 ceiling. Support 6,580/6,500.
ZN: 110-111 range. Below 110 = hike pricing.

March 27 deadline is 48 hours away. Death toll: 1,500+ Iran, 1,000+ Lebanon, 16 Israel, 13 US military. The oil-gold divergence is your compass.

-- Fi

"Diplomacy is the art of saying 'nice doggy' while looking for a bigger stick."