Prediction Markets Expiry Day: Trump Eyes War Exit, $230M in Contracts Resolve, Oil $105 Target

Prediction Markets Expiry Day: $230M+ in Contracts Settle Tonight

Today is judgment day. Over $230 million in total volume across five major March 31 expiry contracts will resolve tonight at 11:59 PM ET -- and the verdict is decisive: no diplomatic resolution, no boots on the ground, no regime change, and Netanyahu stays.



The March 31 Scorecard

Six days ago, diplomatic odds surged to 19.5% after Trump's 15-point plan. Today that contract sits at 0.35% Yes -- a 19-point collapse in under a week. Tehran rejected the proposal as "unrealistic."

• Diplomatic Resolution -- 0.35% ($42.4M vol) -- NO
• US Forces Enter Theater -- 1.45% ($40.7M vol) -- NO
• Regime Falls -- 0.05% ($62.2M vol) -- NO
• Netanyahu Out -- 0.15% ($83.3M vol) -- NO
• Israel Air Strikes -- >99% ($3.3M vol) -- YES

April 30: Where the Money Is Rolling

Polymarket's "US Forces Enter by April 30" contract trades at 59.5% Yes ($11.8M volume). That's a massive jump from March 31's 1.45%. The December 31 version sits at 70.5%.

This lines up with today's conflicting signals: Hegseth says troops are "moving as fast as possible to win," while the WSJ reports Trump privately told aides he's willing to end the campaign -- even without reopening Hormuz.

Oil $105 by End of March: Dead at 36%

Crude Oil $105 sits at 36% Yes ($5.5M vol) and is expiring NO. WTI trades at ~$99.50, down 2.3% on the WSJ de-escalation report. Oil stayed below $105 despite a 32-day war, Hormuz largely shut, a Kuwaiti tanker struck near Dubai, and US gas above $4/gallon.

CME Expands Event Contracts

CME added US elections, soccer, baseball, and basketball event contracts yesterday (March 30). These regulated Globex contracts will also expand to 24/7 trading May 29.

What to Watch: April 30 contracts are the new consensus bet at 59.5%. Watch for movement if Trump follows through on ending the campaign. Crude oil April $105+ contracts will show whether the supply disruption premium is fading.

Data from Polymarket, and Robinhood. Odds at time of posting, not financial advice.

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."