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You are correct. Beginning prop traders were not allowed to trade in the first and last hour and that included the coin toss. A learning trader used to have a better chance in chop. I didn't want to complicate things, so I left it out for simplicity. Anyone can vary the rules as necessary.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
Not sure there... I trade what I see which is volume and order flow based while paying attention to the big picture's context. Lance Begg? Lol! "I come from a land down under!" I think he's pretty spot on actually. He's a realist IMO.
What I'd like to know was, what was the resistance at the swing high for that particular day? I would have loved to join the offer on that. I don't trade the ES much anymore but that looked like a great day/opportunity. Like I said, it's very easy to rip apart a chart. The comments I made would have been real time based relative to volume on what was unfolding and how I trade. I hope it was fairly clear.
LOL...comment withdrawn. Happy surfing! Is the surfing in the pool vs. surfing in Hawaii the equivalent to demo trading vs. live trading in the markets?
That's all good except that I trade. I don't think anything made me a better trader than when I started backing people and started to discover the BS I was believing about myself and how I traded because I would be asked questions about it.
Your example on Derek Rose; whom I have met, is not anywhere near what happens in trading. Derek doesn't lose indefinitely after he throws the ball. The score doesn't keep dropping into the deep negatives until he takes position of the ball again after his last shot and does something with it. Hence, he doesn't have to "be a great loser".
If you don't take your losses in trading and get good at it, then you are just another guy "waiting for the market to turn" so that you can scratch the trade or make a tick. I cut my losses FAST. If it doesn't behave the way I expect, then I pull the trade and wait for the next setup.
In my experience, if a trader spends less time trying to be right and more time simply putting on the trade when the setup shows up and closing it when it doesn't work, they would be much better off any day of the week. Again, I watched guys struggle and my knowledge didn't come from a "training book". I paid dearly for what I'm sharing.
Thanks for your continuous questioning of anything and everything I'm doing though. It keeps things that I haven't looked at in a while fresh for me.
Much better put than what I said. If he changes his shooting technique because he missed a free throw, he would put himself through a new learning curve and a heck of a lot of frustration (which many ppl who trade on a retail level do).
If he misses a free throw, it may be the biggest of the game, then he doesn't celebrate it. He doesn't like doing it, but he can't carry that to the next game and the next free throw. That is what I'm calling "being a great loser". You just let it go and move on and stick to your plan. That is my point.
TI Anonymous takes my words to mean that you should just lose and be happy about it. I am not happy to lose on a trade regardless of the size I have on. That is not my goal.
I feel like no matter what is said and how it is said and how many examples, analogies, references or whatever is used, some people will take the most negative connotation and possibility of doubt and emphasize THAT. Which to me is interesting, given how many traders have come to me over the years and have received my full attention and help for no return whatsoever. I believe in Karma and I love to trade and I love to teach and change lives. This is why I followed the prop route and later, when I stopped backing people, I decided to just continue honing those skills online for whomever wanted to listen.
Very constructive post and thanks for that. No offense taken and I welcome this opinion.
One thing that is missing here is that I think you are assuming that I'm fading the trend all day. I trade both sides of a move as long as the trade is taken in my "areas to do business" (homework). This isn't for everyone not is scaling out of trades. I am simply sharing what works for me and it is based on day-in-day-out refinement for years of trading.
Fair enough...I prefer all-in/scale-out for most of my trades and scale-in/scale-out on major areas of interest; but that is a rare occurrence. The reason I am all-in/scale-out is because I know myself and will do what it takes to gain full perspective on the trade by reducing risk whenever possible. You can run statistics on it and so on, but I know that I'm much better in a scaling approach than all-in/all-out. I will be the first to say that I would suck at trading a 1-lot.
However, your definition of "losing trade" is not quite accurate. As I show in that coin-toss example sheet, it is a small sample in this case but the probability of hitting a full stop versus scaling out and then using those profits to offset the stop are very evident in my live trading. Many people don't see the logic in this mathematically, but it is quite simple.
Also, I often use my theoretical average as an "uncle point" and so the damage is not significant AS LONG AS I get my first scale on the trade (which happens very often). This subject is actually very enlightening but too much to write about here.
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
Thanks, I was just going off of the link that was provided which had an example of multiple long entries that were on a spread sheet that occurred on a down trend day. Of course, we don't know what kind of day will develop based off of the open. All we can do is pay attention to the levels of significance and trade from there. As I mentioned, clearly this is just one day of trading and know it's completely impossible to comprehend a trader's preference/strategy and I'm sure you know what was occurring that day and would probably be thinking similar to I. My intent in providing that commentary was simply an alternative view on how things were unfolding relative to the trading that occurred per the spread sheet. No one was more right than the other. At the end of the day, we all walked away profitable. That's the beauty of trading...
Can you really rely on volume profile analysis in hindsight? Isn't it possible and likely that the volume profile as it looks on a historical chart, looked very different in the middle of the day while the profile was developing?