Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Net trade result: contract #1 was 32 ticks, contract #2 was 72 ticks. I am done for today, I have to be out of town most of the rest of the week. This one was stubborn, understandable due to the bearish environment, but this squeeze is actually one of my favorites.
I hope some of you were able to catch this one with me. It was certainly a more advanced trade, and I do not recommend going countertrend unless you really learn what to watch for, but that is part of why I post this in real time, so maybe I can share some things I have finally figured out.
To recap:
1) The ES was way down, so we looked for where buyers might come in. No market moves in one direction for very long on a short term basis.
2) The media has finally turned negative, bringing out the short-side traders in higher numbers. Shorts are there to make money, and not lose money. You watch for a sense that higher trend momentum is fading.
3) We had volume support in CL around the 30 minute left shoulder pivot (LSP)
4) The trend changed to short-term up on the 9 range.
5) Heavy volume came into the ES and caused a reversal on the 10 minute.
6) The 6 range trend changed, and an entry was taken in the area of the lower donchians, with a stop loss just below the pivot that occured just before the trend change.
Profit target #1 was set to be just above the prior high pivots, #2 was a bit of a moving target for me, but I eventually decided for just above the 786 retracement, as this truly was a countertrend move and that is the last point I watch. I talked myself out when it got near there and had crossed the 618 with some failing momentum, stepped out by pulling my PT down to 84.20 while it was still trading there. Dropped my line right on top of price action.
Around 2pm the S&P let loose and broke through until it reached "zone 2", and when it did crude followed as expected. Then ES reversed on a dime and sent the shorts running for cover in a 20 point ES short covering freakout. I enjoy this type of price action. Like watching extreme action/drama.
Today is FOMC Day. If I take a trade, it will most likely be early. We are in position for sa short right as I type this, but I don't like entering before the 8:30am volume.
Volume confirmation can occur anywhere in the yellow "zone" shown below. That would be completion of an ABC correction setup. Currently no where near short ready though. We lost trend on both the 9 and the 6.