still on nvda behavior, in aftermarket we saw reactions from 125 to 120 and 130 which was the range

then support broke on low volume to 115 furthering the previous 120 range as resistance

the base was not as developed on the way higher and there are major levels 90 / 75

bonds recently recovered but in doing to the shorter term needs to dip

the front run on yield expectations is once again likely to be deflated

across the yield curve, though be well received after the dips

//

vix seems tamed as the large spike cemented any fears

quelling the volatility also makes hedging and gamma larger

and risk appetite reduced alongside reduction in carries into Q4

for semis in the SMH ETF or SOX ETF space they front ran so reversion needed

otherwise tech would be okay and supportive if bonds went with cuts

however this is an uncertainty given data and fed intent to TBD

tech is a victim of being close neighbors with semis only

spy maybe more so affected but either way needs dipping

likely with the over expectation for too many cuts too soon

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energy also needs reversion, commodities into dollar strength

applies to crypto as well, so political and global uncertainty

sort of a controlled deleveraging and carry reversion too

another observation on nvda is that the approximate levels 110 - 90 - 75 - 60

were confirmed on the way up as resistance, where seller were willing to exit

these seem to be gateways instead as the levels are not really supported

//

almost like checkpoints or waypoints for the path to continue trending

this is also affecting semi components one positive being tsm mfg

commoditization / offshoring chip demand has shifted expertise

//

bit of a taiwanese cartel also with amd also setting up mfg there

and a challenge to alt makers like arm uk and intc / txn in us

fabs issues though ter exempt w/ aero/ defense exposure

pricing giving positioning areas aka consolidation

nvda tests prev 110 support as resistance

energy and yields fail to convince

kinda backwards but the usual pump in place for nfp for a beat

looking at the reaction in crude would point towards strong numbers

the reaction would raise yields dropping bonds, and index cut expectations

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bonds have been front running hard already doing the fed's job much too early

already written in the qqq and nvda but dia is saved by exposure to energy

same for iwm maybe gov policy being more supportive here for jobs

energy was unable to push higher off the miss

bonds also relinquishing due to soft but solid figures

everything sure is dipping with jpy carries stagnating

also let the open paint before assessing this is what messed up my call on crude for fomc yday
pre-market and post-market is usually not worth due to liquidity, spread, etc.
also quality of life treating normal market hours as active boundaries

following the distro day from last week

heaviness still weighs and volume does confirm

dow seems to be enjoying some rotation vs other indexes