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- **Trigger Type**: No trigger
- **Entry Reason**: I enter due to my bullish biases, the problem, that I didn't wait for pullback, because gold often grinding on trend, the question is - could I notice with order flow if there possibility of pullback?
- **Exit Reason**: Discomfort, exit on 4R when stuck on first liquidity wall.
## 📈 Outcome
- **Win**
- **Would I take this trade again?** Yes, but as always I have bad enter and not best exit.
- **Emotion check**: Rushed Confident
- **Trigger Type**: Footprint Imbalance
- **Entry Reason**: Bearish bias due to news, but enter was bad - never enter on POC. I missed new news when trend reverse.
- **Exit Reason**:SL, but I could exit earlier if not missed news.
## 📈 Outcome
- **loss**
- **Would I take this trade again?** No
- **Emotion check**:Rushed
- **Opening Type**: Open Auction In Range (big range)
- **Opening Location**: Inside Value
- **Day Type (Projection)**: Normal
- **Shape Type (TPO)**: Trend
- **Overnight Range**: Wide
- **Bias**: 🟢 Bullish
- **Narrative**: I expect price to reach 3820. It create deep retrecement due to Powell hawkish speech yesterday, but I think it's not much change gold demand.
@MGC - Context - Sep-24 0747 AM (Tick(1.2K))
# 24.09.2025 - MES
## 📊 Context
- **Opening Type**: Open Auction In Range
- **Opening Location**: Inside Value
- **Day Type (Projection)**: Normal
- **Shape Type (TPO)**: D
- **Overnight Range**: Narrow
- **Bias**: ⚪ Neutral
- **Narrative**: I'm waiting for today GDP
@MES - Context - Sep-24 0747 AM (Tick(2K))
# 24.09.2025 - MCL
## 📊 Context
- **Opening Type**: Open Auction In Range
- **Opening Location**: Above VAH
- **Day Type (Projection)**: Unknown
- **Shape Type (TPO)**: D
- **Overnight Range**: Narrow
- **Bias**: 🟢 Bullish
- **Narrative**: I'm bullish on crude due to news and short inventories, but maybe the price already fair now.
- **Screenshot at 30m**: @MGC - Context - Sep-24 1045 AM (Tick(1.2K))
- **Screenshot at 3m**:
## ⚙️ Execution
- **Trigger Type**: Footprint Imbalance Tape
- **Entry Reason**: I have biases, that price will reach yesterday high, enter with momentum
- **Exit Reason**: SL
## 📈 Outcome
- **oss**
- **Would I take this trade again?** Yes, but enter bad as always, I entered on high and sit long through pullback.
- **Emotion check**: Rushed
Trading is hard, I decided for myself not to scale out on first pullback as I usually do, I was in 1R profit already, but pullback become reversal, so I loss. I couldn't defirenciate by order flow if it's pullback or reversal, gold always move with big pushes and imbalance
Current State
Long trading experience, but ending mostly break-even.
Pattern: switching approaches after staying with them for some time.
Orderflow tools:
Only useful for scalping.
Scalping edge eaten by commissions → not sustainable.
Footprint: at first looks reliable (levels, momentum), but often misleading.
Absorption levels get exhausted quickly.
GC momentum often reverses.
CL rarely shows clean momentum, mostly grinding.
ES only viable around surprise events; orderflow can help on pullbacks there.
Problems Identified
Confirmation is tricky:
By the time momentum/absorption shows → move often finished.
Waiting for pullbacks = often no pullback comes.
Trade management conflict:
Managing too tightly leads to premature exits.
Wide stop approach makes sense, but patience is hard when price pulls back and sits.
Style conflict:
Trying to merge scalping tools (orderflow) with wide-stop/context trades leads to confusion.
Confirmation feels like evil because it often arrives late.
Realization
The real challenge isnt finding the perfect tool but:
1. Entry conviction without chasing confirmation.
2. Sitting in trades with wide stops without micromanaging.
3. Clarifying what kind of trader I want to be: scalp for ticks or hold for profile-level destinations.
Knowledge/skills I have now:
Market Profile (bias, context, value).
Orderflow (momentum, absorption, footprint).
DOM familiarity (though not useful beyond scalps).
Experience across GC, CL, ES in different sessions.
⸻
Next Steps / Questions to Answer
1. What do I want my core style to be?
Scalp small edges (requires volume + commissions tolerance)?
Or context/profile trades (requires patience + wide stops)?
I cant mix both in the same playbook.
2. What role should confirmation play?
If waiting for orderflow = late, maybe confirmation ≠ momentum, but something else:
Value shift (profile).
Structural break (failed auction).
Location (above/below key reference).
Orderflow could then be trigger only, not confirmation.
3. Trade Management
Maybe instead of active management, I should pre-define:
Idea invalidation (wide stop).
Target (profile level / range extreme).
Let it play out without cutting in the middle.
⸻
Closing Thought
I dont lack tools I lack clarity of how I want to use them. My next step is not more information, but refining a style that removes the conflict between confirmation and conviction.
- **Trigger Type**: None
- **Entry Reason**: Bullish biases, bad price enter
- **Exit Reason**: Discomfort, big loses on GS affect this trade, I closed on first pullback.
## 📈 Outcome
- **Win**
- **Would I take this trade again?** Yes
- **Emotion check**: Rushed
