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I use MRCI data for scanning the volatility (historical and implicit). They not only show actual values, but charts for volatility and seasonal charts for volatility. I do not use the same threshold for all commodities, but I sell when volatility is high compared to recent years.
I do not use ToS. I study the MRCI tables, often during the weekend. That should be enough.
Generally, I do not adjust trades. I do not think it is a good idea. It only makes you believe that, in the long run, the percentage of winners is higher than it really is.
I exit these trades when the value of the options has doubled, rarely tripled. I determine the exact point of exit in the chart of the underlying. That means: I look for strong resistance / support in the underlying at a place where I would assume the options to double in value.
Sometimes I enter a next trade for the same commodity. But it has to fulfil the same conditions as the first one, and I consider it as an entirely new trade. No revenge trade.
And, yes: I made significant profits working with this strategy.
Just wanted to get some feedback and thoughts on how to play Grains and other commodities with all the changes that are going on in the world?
Am I late to the game?
Are ETN's the safest way to capture profits in Grains these days?
Lastly, I like to hear about some strategies people are using to play commodities and the trades they got on now.
I generally do not trade ETNs because of the risk of losses during the rolling process of the ETN.
Currently, I do not trade grains at all because of the large price swings. I am not in a position to recognize the underlying short term fundamentals, which move the prices severely.
I don't know if it is so different, but the teucrium fund are more classified as ETF.
Anyway I assessed investing this we on whether TAGS WEAT or CORN but finally I gave up for the fact that maybe I'm a little bit late in the process and for reasons mentioned by myrrdin (I checked prices of 2nd 3rd contract and depending which one September to December contract). However it should be noted that options are also available for these ETF. Finally I decided if I want to go on this way more for futures or CFD (in the case I cannot afford a full contract).
"Teucrium Commodity Trust - Teucrium Wheat Fund is an exchange traded fund launched and managed by Teucrium Trading, LLC. The fund invests in the commodity markets. It uses derivatives such as futures contracts to invest in wheat. The fund employs a market neutral investment strategy. It seeks to track the daily weighted average of the closing settlement prices for three futures contracts namely 35% second-to-expire CBOT Wheat Futures Contract, 30% third-to-expire CBOT Wheat Futures Contract, and 35% CBOT Wheat Futures Contract expiring in December following the expiration month of the third-to-expire contract. Teucrium Commodity Trust -
Thanks for the info, however I double checked and these mini-contracts are not available at my broker (at Saxobank mini-contracts are available for gold and silver, but not for wheat or corn)
Regarding Live Cattle, I look at Seasonals, COT Data, Supply & Demand (eg. Cattle on Feed Report), and the Stock Indices. I do not trade options on Feeder Cattle.