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Well, my short from yesterday didn't work so well. I could have covered with a nice profit but when market turned (around 12:30pm eastern, FOMC) it did so with force and caught me off guard. I ended up exiting with a tiny profit when we sold off after not taking out weekly high.
But now that I have the benefit of today's action, I do believe we will move higher the remainder of this week. I saw price move up today with far less resistance than it moved down.
And all those shorts are just screaming "squeeze me!!!", I think the market can move higher far easier than it can move lower. If everyone is piled on short, and we can't go down, then it means the move up can really have a lot of momentum.
His posts make sense to me. I can't get behind any of the astrology part, but the cycles and risk approach make sense to me.
He started with a small position and is adding to it. It seems likely he is taking some profits as he goes, but continuing to build a larger position over time, aka trading around a position.
We'll have to agree to disagree and leave it at that
The problem with that is that any good news rally now seems to have a lifetime of few hours. Spanish bailout, Greek elections, Fed OpTwist extension, ESM/EFSF buying bonds - all of these fizzled out. Any of these by themselves should have had the shorts running for cover but the market faded all of them.
Short of the ECB buying bonds in bulk I am not sure what will move the markets decisively to the upside.
I often read about that good traders are not looking what they can win, they are more concerned what they can lose. and I fully agree with that.
with that in mind, I strongly disagree with your approach. especially for newer futures traders it's not recommended imho. if you want to build a position and are willing to add to your position and hold it over a longer period of time for a bigger profit, then I would look for other instruments, like options, etf, stocks etc. (just something you know exactly how much you can lose!)
reason is risk. what happens if the market is closed and the unexpected happen? let's say you've a bigger short position in 6e at 1.27. now some central banks made a very unusual move and 6e opens at 1.75? (I know not very likely, but you never know...) now depending on your position and account size, your account might be red.
again this is just imho and not very likely to happen. but just keep that in mind.
I only use futures as a hedging and a short term trading instrument.
No arguments from me. You can see I tell people to not trade futures on a daily basis, basically begging them to start with something smaller and less risk. Futures is not a beginners instrument class.
Personally, I try to avoid holding overnight but sometimes I do because it's no big deal. You need to be aware of news, and of course you have to be prepared for the consequences.
I know Mike advocates micro FX for beginners. What I found works great for me is sim trading 6E a couple hours in the morning before work and use the levels from my morning homework to set EUR/USD level alerts in my live micro FX brokers mobile trading platform for swing setups. It's actually been paying for my lunch every day . I find I am much more constantly aware of levels and news, much more so than just the morning sim, plus I get a little bit of the real money rush. Love this thread by the way.
I really feel bad about myself now; I forecasted and then traded that forecast correctly by pinpointing the bottom of the Euro within 1 day and am anticipating a multi-month move higher--but I am not 'feeding' certain audience members every single entry w/ trade by trade buy & sells I am making and every single shorter-term buy & sell (yes, pullbacks and confirmed breakouts to the upside).
I guess I am not making any ticks along the way either with my voodoo planetary and geometrical price/time/space analysis? I wouldn't know how to trade a 'core' position with size either if my life depended on it; nope. Never did it before; not to mention 1,700X's before over 27+ years {that's only a little over 1 trade per week on avg.}.
Am I supposed to become a vendor and then not be a trader and just an educator?? Are you out of your mind, no way??!!
Nope. I'm really short and lost over 100K on this trade. So I have to go work digging ditches now. I hope you are all happy!
So much emotion from a fundamentalist speaks to the 'squeeze' (slow & hard & painful) of those that think the euro cannot go up 'stairstepping' along the way.