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If you take a look at the DAX then the best reversal time per day is 10:30.
Means you have to cut it down to 30m charts for that instrument.
In fact there are many influences for this like
• IB = initial balance: first hour of with my system first half hour after opening
• did a gap to previous day occur?
• are important announcements that day @ 10:30 or @ 14:30?
• is it a special weekday - like the last of month / quarter?
and more
Those influence the direction of a trade tremendously.
Just find your time patterns that are a very good way for high probable gains.
GFIs1 - wishing you much "reet"!
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
GFIs1! I love that you are reacting here. Your Dax-journal was actually the original inspiration for me to look at this phenomenon. I very much like the idea of taking 1 trade per day. I tried daytrading 5mins, but that will give me heart attack before I'm 45. And also it interferes too much with my real job. I really like how taking 1 trade per day on set hours lets me leave the screen in the meantime.
I'm am now writing some code in Ninjatrader to test different hours of the day, and indeed different days of the week, to get some statistical info and basis. I dont think in the end this will be fully automated system, but it can make decision making much easier.
I understand gaps, they get filled more often than not. But what do you mean by initial balance?
This time oriented thing has very good relationship with events/holidays, for example we short markets in this time around or at least close portfolios as FII take money out of markets before long westerner holidays. At least that's what people believe, uncannily enough it also works for most people here.
generally i have noticed this pattern when filling a gap or probing back into the past days value area. you can not just hope its going to reverse at these times . to trade the idea you need to be able to read tempo ..opening drive ..opening test drive ..open action .. ect..ect..
11am CST is the European/Frankfurt cash market close. I have an indicator which shades a different color from - Asian Open, European Open (Frankfurt/London), NY Open & the European Close. When different global financial hubs are open for business money tends to flow in & out of certain assets, especially during heavy risk on or risk off sentiment. Positions tend to be flattened in the Eurostoxx, DAX, Bund futures, etc. around 10-11am and have an indirect effect on US equities and interest rate products, as well as the Euro and other currencies during their respective sessions