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Updated December 19, 2022
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October 19th, 2022, 10:14 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
waiting for energy, vix likes to test the extremes recently
bigger than expected draw would be supportive
//
impetus died off, still grinding with vix
//
well-contained, controlled dips with dollar, energy and vix influences
earnings sentiment is lower
//
longer term may be rounding and fixing various issues in energy bonds as a consequence of covid measures / stimulus
//
on earnings, next week shows GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL and AMZN, consumer brands look ok
//
index turn is good and coincides with energy supporting and vix ceiling
//
energy and vix supportive, prob still sitting on earnings
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October 20th, 2022, 12:09 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
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energy retrace, at least we can have lower gas, can't really push with earnings next week, vix still sunny
kinda ranged but with upside bias
//
range broken and now heavy following energy, dip counter prob has a few more on it now
//
with nq jumpy, feels like arbing based on es which is steadily sinking
can actually scalp mini rips for entry close to SMAs and keep reloading
journeying toward 11k nq mark
//
little harder to sink now with es near support, prob leave a bit off
some tailing on energy, see if it follows through later, minor earnings through close
vix also dragging to get that resistance lower
//
the reaction after bond close with vix dropping claims a pause/key level**
** by level, meaning no necessarily a specific linear level but a rounding area
possible accumulation into the quarterly earnings with upside as this stairsteps
es around 3680s, nq around 11.1k, but aftermarket has started dropping a bit
nimble / survival / defensive mentality, with slight diplike sentiment bias
//
es heading toward 3750 nq 11.4 though dragging a bit, 6j dumped but recovering
energy and vix are supportive, likely a test of a few resistances above on indexes
like to set and forget and just cruise on such days instead of picking away
//
could possibly use nq as a entry indicator for es swing, but nq is dragging from cl
cl is being guarded tightly, dxy and yen kinda influencing also
again big tech earnings next week so there is some built in hesitation
something about outsized 0dte options etc. no idea about that influence
//
starting to feel the pin / gravitational pull from derivatives esp. on nq
seeing that energy is kinda running in place too, so maybe early to exit
recalling yesterday afternoon drop so possibly ranged, again just context
will wait for googl, since that seems a little weak / previous earnings under
calling it for the week here, let the expiry shenanigans do their thing i guess
//
looks like 6j recovered and energy vix forming a push, breakout with entry
from previous support to test resistance, looks to be a controlled push
October 21st, 2022, 12:13 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
safety trade would be to stay closer to SMA for entry since there is hesitation
that way on a false breakout the entry was established earlier, with profitable exit
left for a bit and tried to enter later and exited with a small loss after false break
on the plus side, es is curling up with nq lagging trying to also establish a curl
//
also hate taking on energy, when crude leads, take heed.. so pausing
//
nymex close gave the go ahead, though vix is not following, technical move
October 23rd, 2022, 12:27 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
one thing looking back on late friday is that vix was climbing with the index but dropped with volume at close
maybe the premiums were being milked, no idea..
energy is also coiled and ready hoping for cheaper gas but prob not the case
consumer sensitive economy means the amzn type megas will lead / sink
kinda recursive, but pointing to decent quarter even with a googl marketing drag
we already saw from ibm that computing/cloud was good, subscription services like nflx too
discretionary spend also less due to food/energy costs but staples are maintained
fortunately the strong dollar offsets other commodities so there is a cancel effect
also nq has this habit recently off not hitting target but es overshoots
pre-earnings jitters or possibly some early weakness / hesitation until numbers
//
also those who were turned off from loans due to high interest rates now divert
either going to banks either way or alt investment or further spend
also the cash infused corps like msft, aapl will have less financing pressures
either way there are a lot of elements that can ride out the bubbles
a bit of a financial health check, separating the wheat from the chafe
//
the vol spiked a bit from some data, but also technically returned to area for testing
nq followed more technically, while es is levitating, but both closer to averages
the overnight seemed like a continuation move to make room for further action
the bowl that es has is a bit more shallow than nq as well
//
energy keeps flip flopping generating even more vol, vix rejected after spike
October 24th, 2022, 01:56 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
nq ignited faster than es which re-visited the prev close area
have es at 3820 test and nq 11.6 ish which pushes into googl er tues
energy is lax and vix is relaxing, so a bit of a hesitation into nymex
//
the boj /fed co-ordination seems more like a hand-shake, that previously
a weakened dollar was meant to stimulate domestically with tolerable yen strength
now the yen has time to enjoy a more eased environment while capping inflation
//
es is now ~ 100 away from previous fomc , stagnated expectations toward status quo
looking back the dip mid-october might seem more like capitulation , though gap unfilled
from the mar 2020 covid low to the winter 2021 highs, that makes about a 50% trace
//
googl okay either way and a positive surprise would push too, nymex close gave green light
choosing nq over es, as nq was lagging and has r/r and behaving with technicals
off-guard with AM dip otherwise, learned what happened after the fact but swing long
really continuation from friday, as well as last mon for accumulation, guessing third resistance
es 3900 maybe the reason es seems to be ahead, when in fact es needs to clear another level
//
takehome here is that right trend but wrong r/r can also produce unwanted result
//
one aside is that taking up boxing has effect of psychological training
literally, getting punched sucks, so don't do that / do that less.. until habitual
in certain scenarios you are likely to get punched more, so don't go there
and one other thing, you will get punched, just try not to get knocked out
roll with it, clench the jaw and position for a test offensive.. keep attacking
but with guard up, keep doing what works, observe and go with the flow
in the moment, do not think, survive and thrive.. look back after and plan strats / train
//
there's combos to throw (swing), but not there yet, keeping it simple
between the starting round and final bell, just a jab/cross in-out type risk
//
swinging is more like surfing, where u gotta get underwater for a bit
before riding that next wave.. so having a day strat can help build for that
//
noticing curling in the bonds, going with zt short dated, seeing the move first
followed by zf and maybe zn, zb is still stuck nowhere, so maybe a strong impulse
on the front end of the curve would signal possible recovery, too early to confirm
//
just saw something that might be useful for confirmation, that level crosses
should happen with volume or during times when action can verify
if this is the case, then the rally is technical in nature, something is off
for things to properly recover another leg down may be necessary MT
October 25th, 2022, 02:23 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
messed around on sim today, trying to see where the reversal was, but never really showed
vix seems to have breached lower so not sure until after earnings, either way just a test
kept adding as the indexes sunk, but not enough to spark a trend, maybe after nymex
crude is just wobbling around with expectation. this marks the two week trial period end
passed within the first week and started experimenting within the second to understand more
found the need to pace and gauge r/r but fortunately could rely on previous profit for padding
//
finally have no expectations except to learn more each time and plan accordingly
//
vix seems to be a capitulation move, to the point of breaching but not quite
wonder what the put/call ratio is for various majors since they are getting cheap
//
r/r was off on entry, just respect levels, should be ok for a tester size
have to be extra sure if using real size, with earnings, that is a grey area
//
the vix volume at close has been increasing, maybe they finished hedging?
the technical rally today may have sealed the deal for another -30%
gonna keep zig zaggin down until completely happy
r/r here is a lot better, expecting continuation.. guessing ppl caught off guard chasing?
//
eia stretch before numbers, vix as well, es is neverland but nq is reacting
October 26th, 2022, 11:25 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
another round of capitulation for shorts, vix testing extremes and the bowl formation still exists
energy just wants higher but possibly also at an extreme, tried to fade on sim but too early
seems like an advanced strat because probability is that trade goes against you, and you have to resist the temptation to add
the bread and butter standard is to react only in areas where the probability is more in your favor, otherwise go small
//
so prior was using kinetick for data feed, now that these other sims have data, kinda redundant, especially with the new rithmic mobile app.. either way there is a backup and rotating through sims for evaluation/practice helps me learn
nymex close, crude with the SPR draw helped but let's see with meta and such
//
realizing early on the entry, so take a small tester, wait until confirmation and then commit
the secondary is really when additions can happen but need to be small as well, just extra oompf
going small into the last hour, due to being a tester, anticipating a fast move possibly to continue
//
vix is still hanging at the lows, energy the highs, zn did get bid and looks to be trying further
es is levitating while nq dips, let's see what the next incoming tech earnings does for the bid
//
this open was strange, vix low and energy high but just tracked nq mostly as meta dropped
now vix is bouncing but energy is still at highs now reversing , so they pull out to extremes
expectations for turnaround are weakening, at least there is no news on further conflict
//
resorted to watching meta influence indexes, energy and vix still extreme, something could pop
still have a pessimistic bent, but going small with the indecision, especially with es levitating
October 27th, 2022, 11:17 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
just saw something i didn't like, so just flat until things resolve, like both indexes are levitating
while energy and vix are pushing, seems trappy as the dips are bounced almost reflexively
also dow is green, prob due to energy, very mixed day, okay to pause here
//
also bonds have been well, bonding, and this is supportive with $DXY also in with /6J
there seems to be a positive sentiment for both aapl and amzn from the consumer side
//
es is the last man standing, still above the level might need data for the breakdown
nq is slowing grinding, one thought is to make a synthetic hybrid position based on probability
days like today would adjust to a lower overall net due to the ranged movement
on breakout /down the hedge could be released until a certain target / level
that way the delta is not just 100% all the time but a mixture based on likelihood
//
hesitation or mixed still or slow, vix is a bit lower but definitely dripping not dropping
//
testing the conviction of positioning, which is not a bad way to go, but unintentionally
also working with the whips in aapl and other components that are reporting soon
//
move almost feels telegraphed at this point, mood has been soured and dismal
but not yet reflected fully, there is pressure building from multiple areas
//
not sure what to call it, but sell into strength, there is also a rounding of breadth
vix is the sustain as energy is starting to fade as well, guessing friday type activity
relentless vol , wondering if selling cheap calls to 0dte yolo'ers would add to this decay
//
delta profile between calls and puts is definitely distributed differently
prob going to wait for the turn to commit
October 28th, 2022, 11:32 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
following along by amzn proxy mostly, seeing a pause at least, energy suddenly dropped with volume
going small until the bars appear for confirmation, been whipsawing as this squeezes somewhat
something about the EU session has also been supportive, seeing if the west coast continues
ppl probably want out of some of the major index heavy tech players until a reasonable juncture
//
feels like the buck is being passed here, whatever party is accumulating for the greater good
at least more two sided than with an easing tailwind, still feeling the jumps and props on and off
and then there's aapl going up and away, can't forget about that one, more than offsets amzn
//
nearing the exit zone, got it. well that's it for now
October 31st, 2022, 12:28 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
tricky dip light and waiting, energy is not feeling it
vix is still low however, so let's see the bars to start the score
//
seems to be dictated by daily levels and already closed under
so not really going to expect much here for the rest of the day
//
expectations seem to be moving lower, fomc weds, nfp fri
between the tricks and the treats, better off figuring out the magic behind it all
//
mystery day, continuing into the week, very sparse range , only thing is crude got frisky
//
looks like there is no real conviction still even though the overnight popped
//
ye market gods have decided and ye have followed for fear of being seen as pagan
guess i am pagan, due to the incoming fomc, but devout followers may be holding in fear
i too have seen the light and am trembling in fear before the great one and have followed
Last Updated on December 19, 2022