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Yes thanks, I totally agree. Context is everything. There are a lot of other things about this trade that made it good. Price had gone up 3 or 4 legs (according to how you count them) since the open. Bars 41 and 42 were very strong bull bars and after 3 legs up you might expect 1 or 2 legs sideways to down. Price traded sideways for for over 10 bars excluding the failed breakout to the upside. Once price came back into that consolidation or trading range and resistance held it was more likely a short trade would succeed. Also it was a wedge top and formed a head and shoulders pattern, and the S&P often has a mid-day reversal around bar 40, so the second entry here is just one piece of the puzzle.
So yes, no holy grail but in the right context they are something I can look for to hopefully gain a slight edge.
I also think, btw that 90% of trades have between a 40 - 60% chance of being successful, so exploiting any repeatable patterns (and 2nd entries are just one) with good context will hopefully get me to consistent profitability
Thanks for commenting I do like your chart, but I do like to try to count myself and keep the chart clean. And buy writing this post it made me go back and study that price action again and see a lot of things I didn't see before. A great exercise which I plan on making part of my routine, a great learning tool. It's amazing how much info PA really gives you by itself if you have the perseverance to really study and learn it. And that is my goal, and ultimately the point of this journal.
Have a Great day!
Jim
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Friday I took one trade. A second entry short. There was a strong move down followed by a pullback so I entered short, one contract at a 66% pullback of the signal bar and another on a sell stop just below the low of the signal bar. Trade was a small loss around $30 or so. Context was not the best, my reasoning at the time was that the move down was strong enough to at least get a small 2nd leg. Well my second entry was the bottom of that 2nd leg, lol. Market was in an uptrend and I should have been looking for longs.
The prop firm's data feed servers have been acting up for the better part of a week now and they reset that small loss from Friday, so my 50k eval stayed the same at 50,005.00
Yesterday the servers were still acting up so I took 2 SIM trades. The first was a long entry above the 7th bar of the day (it was the third consecutive bull bar with strong closes) I was a breakout above the bar 1 high and I thought price was close enough to the low and close of the prior days last bar and the EMA's that it was likely to test that area. Scalped 2 points and closed out another point up on a trailing stop. So a good winning trade.
Second trade was a second entry short. After entering I saw price was forming a micro double bottom with the bar 2 bars ago so I was able to move my stop and get out with a 1 tick win (basically a scratch) so I'll take it.
Today the servers seemed to be fixed so went back to trading the eval. First trade was a buy above bar 16, a doji with a small bear body that trapped the bears and allowed the bulls to get another push up. Second was anther breakout above the three previous swing highs of the day. Another winner, scalped 2 points and closed up another point.
So my eval is now up to 50,086.84. Trade micro's today but I need to switch to mini's if I'm going to pass this eval (if I can be profitable that is), and I would like to hold the runners longer so I might try tweaking the ATM strategy I'm using. Problem is the rules of the eval have a trailing drawdown so if you don't take quick profits and give back PnL the drawdown kind of puts you in a hole, so I'll need to experiment.
Sorry, I'm not trying to be a prick. Most people selling trading systems and education are charlatans. Don't you think it's a red flag if they cannot produce real-life accounts?