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The long liquidation yesterday after the NY open was quite scary for some. After it took out the prior day's low, it seems that DAX is going to be sold out hard again. Many people including some of the big funds and prop traders hit the panic button and liquidated their long holdings.
However, what it did was merely to test last week's POC and, in the process, form a bull flag formation.
Today it is likely that we are going to have the week high 12925 being taken out and challenge the 12985 volume node before the italy panic dump.
Good luck, traders!
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
When both CAC and FESX lost the support of VWAP, I know it is the end of the bullish scenario for DAX this morning.
DAX is waiting for NY for more action.
It might be due to the arrival of June holiday period, many traders in Europe starts to take early holidays. The price action in London session is completely dominated by the algos. It could be quite challenging to trade, hence it is more important to refer more to the CAC and FESX for guidance during this period.
A technical bounce from yesterday's VPOC in ES.
But it is very unlikely to change the
picture of overwhelming long liquidation that most of the late buyers are forced to cover and early buyers are taking profits here.
Pretty much since the Italian non-sense situation, the Ny session is actually much more directional with a clear intention wanting to break the DAX down. Hence the cash session TPOs are quite useless these days. Instead I am relying on the ETH chart for setup.
From the 60 min ETH chart, we can see that yesterday's bull flag has failed 1 hour after the cash open, and the big bear rising wedge seems to be taking the rein. This wedge was drawn by someone on the twitter several days ago. But I was buying into the simplistic view that DAX would go straight down from the wedge break. DAX never went down before the shorts are squeezed.
We had a couple of extremely strong short squeeze days people might be confusing it with a bullish trend day.
Now the reality has kicked in that DAX is going down for real. But usually after a major low is taken out, a short squeeze ensues. This time is very likely to be the same. I am looking at the retest of the 12765 to 12770 zone for a short. If it were to squeeze higher, then let it top out first before taking shorts. We are in an extremely volatile period associated with transitioning from bull phase to b
ear phase that it is going to test true trading skills.
'Sell a level and hoping it melt from there' is never going to work in this market. Be flexible and don't buy the dips anymore.
If you were wondering what the openning move that was.
That is called the Wolfe wave, which is the most common short squeeze pattern in DAX, dow and NQ.
I really need some higher wisdom to help me to get over this difficult situation.
My second daughter, who is just 1 year old, has been kept me from trading and sleeping by requiring constant attention and a lot of crying. I am really on the verge of total mental and physical break down.
I even had a thought to just throw my daughter away or send her to my parents so that I can focus on my work for a bit.
Is that normal thinking or I am just crazy and evil inside?
Anyone here had similar experience? How you were able to get peace with a young baby?
Terribly needed some higher guidance.
The session yesterday was really choppy. Some of you who were day trading yesterday's market might be asking what the market maker was trying to do here?
There were plenty of impulse moves, but the market attempted to be going no where.
The chart speaks of the truth. Basically the market maker was cleaning the book by running the weak levels (the double bottoms and tops) in the market to weed out the weak longs and weak shorts because they know that at this moment no big funds are going to put down serious money anyway before the major ECB meeting.
After the weak levels are run, the market maker has a much lighter book. Whichever direction they want to push after the meeting would be much easier.
If we take a look at the long term chart, the June was trading below the volume built between 13050 and 12925 just before the high time high. That is the place where the big funds taking position.
After yesterday's bullish price action, DAX was trading solidly above that volume/value a
rea. According to experience, the major volume zone would act as resistance if price trading below or support once price trading above it.
I am anticipating that value area to lend us some support going forward. Once the support is established, DAX should be able to make all time high yet again. Probably, very soon.
ES looking quite bearish into the open.
It has failed to stand above the weekly POC in yesterday's session.
Now the path of least resistance is to the down side until the buyers show strong willingness to turn it around.
I am looking at the 2752 area as the down side target for the bears.
before that, there is not much structure we can rely on.