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LOL, no its fine, its just that *every* day its like my mind resets to just thinking in terms of surviving, getting out with a small profit, stop the losing and learn to survive and come out a little bit ahead before you start worrying about winning...and then you see a day like this and...its right there. Its right there for all of us, we just have to execute and be patient. I say every day i'm going to try and be patient and let my trades run, but then 5 minutes of chop and almost getting stopped out and I feel like i just won the lottery when the trade starts going in my direction and I push my stop up and try to grab a winner.
Its a great lesson, and I know I'm going through this because its teaching me valuable lessons. The phrase "you have to learn how to lose before you can learn how to win" comes to mind.
I posted this screenshot to remember, this isn't the first time this has happened but the trades are starting to "feel" more focused and in control, this was a great opportunity at the extreme-end of the IB and I just flaked out a little thinking the bulls were coming.
Yo snax! Hope all is well. I'm a little late to this party, but I've been busy with life...or work really. Although, in full disclosure, I did play a fair amount of golf over the long weekend and had a good time. But this is an interesting tidbit you have shared here. And as a recent Brooks convert I feel compelled to contribute. .
I think there is a bit of paradox in Brooks when he says his reasoning is irrelevant. His assessments of tradeable patterns are based on a recognition of an internal logic of how these price action patterns unfold. So if we are to buy into his system we have assume his reasoning is relevant and important. To use a Taleb-ism, he's attempting to domesticate uncertainty by working rationally to make bets on an unclear future. So the reasoning seems relevant if we are to use his methodology. I guess all he is saying is his logic seems to do well, but a narrative is not important and probably futile. I think Taleb would say you are domesticated by uncertainty when you rely on narrative.
I like Brooks. His methodology has kept me focused on solving the puzzle while trading. And I think this has helped keep emotion in the background. And I'm amazed at how much less impulsive I have been lately...But always prone to slip!!! I don't have the whole system down, or even close to it, but it has helped immensely.
Your reading list seems fun and please share more thoughts! I've been into Brooks' third book Reversals. And as soon as I get done with it I think I might get back into Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahneman. I started it about a year ago but have been reading trading guides pretty much non-stop. One of these days I'll have to knock the dust off of my copy...
A lot of great stuff to talk about here, I'd like to think more about this and give a full response when I have more time, I should have time to respond this evening, hope you are doing well!
Sharp decline overnight as more selling ensued. Yesterday was a "BEAR PARTY" with the initial-balance setting up the high-extreme of the day's range before creating a very interesting looking market-profile structure. Closing range before closing-bell was a straight-drop to ~2800 and now we're rotating well below yesterday's range.
Looking at Open Auction Out of Range which generally points to imbalance and the potential for more big price moves. However volume is slightly lower and trend days (if you can call it that, it was kind of a crashy shade of trend) often seem to be followed by a market that behaves in a tired fashion without much directional conviction. So I guess I'm estimating a bracketed market with outside-in trading but keeping on the lookout for big moves since we are out of balance after yesterday's plunge.
@7:44AM CST - some rotation between ONL and other interesting price-levels. Sticking with the 5min bars.
@Opening-Bell - Be patient and see what the market gives you.
Two quick losers after trying to be patient, clearly chasing today. I'm out.
= Retro =
Mindless trading during initial-balance development.
Cramming all my trades into the IB is proving pretty hard.
What I didn't like:
- No focus, just chasing after the market.
Goals for Tomorrow:
- Keep focusing on driving risk/reward-ratio and expectancy up.
- Keep pushing to trust my plan.
- Slowly gain more trades in my repertoire
- Keep reading "Competent - Long-Term Trading" section of Mind over Markets
- Keep reading RPCBBB
- Stop being lazy and start doing my probability theory homework a tiny bit each night.
- price-action & market-profile homework.
progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$26.50 achieved.
-$16.00 current drawdown
19 trades of 60 entered.
I need (573.50/41) = $13.99 per trade ~ +12-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 0.9000 ticks
My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $1.13
For the week I am -8-ticks.
expectancy is dropping, really struggling since going live, need to put together a plan to stay away from mindles chasing. Really agitated with myself today. Had a good start to the week, but then I came in unfocused and reckless today.
~~~~ Homework ~~~~
sketched market-profile for May 29, 2019
2792.75 C
2792.50 C
2792.25 C
2792.00 C
2791.75 BC
2791.50 BC
2791.25 BC
2791.00 BC
2790.75 BC
2790.50 BC
2790.25 BC
2790.00 BC
2789.75 BC
2789.50 BC
2789.25 BC
2789.00 BC
2788.75 ABCD
2788.50 ABCD
2788.25 ABCD
2788.00 ABCD
2787.75 ABCD
2787.50 ABCDM
2787.25 ABCDM
2787.00 ABCDM
2786.75 ABCDM
2786.50 ABCDM
2786.25 ABCDM
2786.00 ABCDM
2785.75 ABCDM
2785.50 ABCDIM
2785.25 ABCDIM
2785.00 ABCDHIM
2784.75 ABCDHIJM
2784.50 ABCDHIJM
2784.25 ABCDHIJM
2784.00 ABCDHIJM
2783.75 ABCDHIJM
2783.50 ABCDHIJM
2783.25 ABCDHIJM
2783.00 ABCDHIJM
2782.75 ABCDHIJM
2782.50 ABCDHIJM
2782.25 ABCDHIJM
2782.00 ABCDHIJM
2781.75 ABCDHIJM
2781.50 ABDHIJKM
2781.25 ABDHIJKM
2781.00 ABDHIJKM
2780.75 ABDHIJKM
2780.50 ABDHIJKM
2780.25 ABDHJKM
2780.00 ADHJKM
2779.75 ADHJKM
2779.50 ADHJKM
2779.25 ADHJKM
2779.00 ADEFGHJKM
2778.75 ADEFGHJKM
2778.50 DEFGHJKM
2778.25 DEFGHJKM
2778.00 DEFGHKM
2777.75 DEFGHKLM
2777.50 DEFGHKLM
2777.25 DEFGHKLM
2777.00 DEFGHKLM
2776.75 DEFGHKLM
2776.50 DEFGHKLM
2776.25 DEFGHKLM
2776.00 DEFGHKLM
2775.75 DEFGHKLM
2775.50 EFGHKLM
2775.25 EFGHKLM
2775.00 EFGHKL
2774.75 EFGHKL
2774.50 EFGHKL
2774.25 EFGHKL
2774.00 EFGHKL
2773.75 EFGHKL
2773.50 EFGHKL
2773.25 EFGHKL
2773.00 EFGHKL
2772.75 EFGHKL
2772.50 EFHKL
2772.25 EFHKL
2772.00 EFHKL
2771.75 EFHKL
2771.50 EFHKL
2771.25 EFKL
2771.00 EFKL
2770.75 EFKL
2770.50 EFKL
2770.25 EFKL
2770.00 EFL
2769.75 EFL
2769.50 EFL
2769.25 EFL
2769.00 EFL
2768.75 EFL
2768.50 EF
2768.25 EF
2768.00 EF
2767.75 EF
2767.50 EF
2767.25 EF
2767.00 E
2766.75 E
2766.50 E
2766.25 E
"Neutral-Center" Day as evidenced by selling tail in C period and buying tail in E period and Normal-ish distribution.
I really like the Taleb concept of "domesticating uncertainty" you mentioned, I haven't gotten to that one yet. I feel like trying to block off bad habits and behavioral patterns is part of that. I keep trying to turn this uncertainty into a house-cat but it is more of a rescue-panther at this point
I was going to ask you about your thoughts on Brooks because I see you referencing his concepts.
I actually used some Brooks for my trade yesterday with the bear trend bar as a signal bar and made the 1-tick below close entry point that he recommends with my stop just out of the range of the bar, though I set it for 8-ticks it was luck that it worked out that way. It worked out nicely and I had a plan I was focused on. So today I forgot all that and jumped into the market like "I got this" and got two quick losses handed to me. Funny how impulsiveness keeps getting me too.
I was really bummed today but tomorrow is a new day, going to try and stay focused before work and try not to be impulsive. Initial-Balance is so hard to trade!
Snax! Sorry about the tough day. I also had a hard time getting out of my own way today. It's just amazing the level of sharpness that it takes to do this at a professional level and I marvel at the dudes that can. The artisan trader type...haha! Whenever I have a really tough day I always review these things:
Pretty clear and concise and helpful. So I copied these 6 things directly from a FIO post and pasted them into my Trading Plan. My Trading Plan has evolved. Things have been added, removed, added and removed but these things have remained the constant. They help me re-focus after disastrous days or on days when I need plain old refocusing. I better give a quick shout out to @Massive l who posted these principles sometime ago...in some thread...somewhere...I found them in my forum lurking days...so, over a year ago. These have been very helpful...Thanks Massive l!
The initial balance is hard to trade...at least for me. There are some guys that seem to nail it every time though. This is something I've been really trying to drill down on lately...by studying Brooks! . He lays out a framework for trading the open...but I don't quite understand it fully yet. So I've mostly been avoiding trading the IB/opening range lately. Which has been good! But this isn't the solution for me.
As for the Emicros...They have been awesome! You got to love em', right? The liquidity has been amazing right out of the gate. Nobody predicted that. They are an excellent resource for beginners. They allow us beginners to develop an edge with real money while risking a relatively benign amount. Talk about domesticating uncertainty! Stay convex my friend...
I have a feeling you're going to tame that panther one of these days! Just don't let it claw your eyes out in the process...I'm told you never know what you're getting with these rescue panthers! I feel like I'm still in the domesticated by uncertainty phase. Or rather, I'm uncertainty's b!#@$, Dr. Steenbarger style...haha! .
Ha, thanks! The bad day is fine. I know what I did. The problem that I have to be careful of is that at my current skill-level I don't have the experience to always tell if I'm executing my plan or if I'm really just jumping in "Hold my beer"-style, and the distinction is very subtle for me right now. I agree with you 100% on one of the hardest parts is the focus you mentioned, that's a great point. I'm going to make note of that, I think I take it for granted sometimes.
Those are great keys! Losing trades are a gift indeed, they remind me the stuff I forget, like being focused, not being impulsive and trying to go "make something happen" in the market, and don't revenge-trade. I broke all these today.
Focus on a few manageable methods is a good one indeed. I may need to focus more on what each bar is really telling me, so that I can execute more like yesterday, not today.
Agreed on the shout-out to @Massive as well, I saw more good keys in his journal the other day:
As for trading Initial-Balance, it is kind of a necessity for me at this point in my life due to my job, I'm just grateful I can get that time to trade. It is also a way to grind away at learning to trade it. It can be really lucrative since (I can never find the % Dalton (Or Stiedlmayer?)) said but the IB sets one of the daily range extremes quite often, so its worth learning and gaining experience with it I think because you can (not always) identity different opening-types which can themselves be lucrative, like open-drive, or that can help identify day-types and whether it will be a trend day or bracketed day, plus the opportunity to get in at one of the range-extremes, so for trade-location purposes, I've made it a goal of mine to learn as much as I can about it. Plus most days other than Fridays I don't really have much more time to trade right now.
I will have to check out the Brooks stuff on IB, I really like the book so far.
As for E-Micros 100% agree they are a blessing. I'm also uncertainty's b!#@$ for now, haha. Thanks again @Salao, always a pleasure!
They are amazing, I actually look to end each week with positive ticks now which is insane for live trading for me at this stage. I can feel the losing "valve" slowly turning from "firehose" mode to a reasonable trickle.
I had a positive week last week and I have a shot again this week, so to say its really helping is an understatement.
And the stuff I'm experiencing/struggling with is the same as I had with ES, uncertainty of when to enter, mixed with nervous trade-management. Learning how to lose before I can learn how to win, without extra stress of a big contract.
I hope to have a few high-probability trades that I can start mixing in the ES, but I'm going to be patient with that.
I really want to start thinking higher-timeframes eventually but that is further down the road.
This sentence is SO perfect! Who doesn’t relate with this? This is something I think about before or during or after every trade. Well a majority of trades anyway...sometimes I’m confident. I guess experience is the key? Thanks for the chat snax. Always interesting!