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I live in hope, along with @mattz and @wldman, sometimes PC correctness is way overrated. I do not like the way this forum is being dragged through some rotten places. I appreciate others have more tolerance, my bad. I don't have their trading savvy but I am a bloody good programmer and system engineer and I also know tosh when I see it.
He won't, its already number 1 in the top ten list of threads to learn how not do go about things and will be kept as lesson material.
They won't because they already know damn well that backtests on good systems are at best unreliable indications of future success and on special bars and indicators like this they are pointless and downright misleading. Years ago we watched a similar exercise by an extremely talented and well respected member of this forum; he finally accepted that a similarly visually appealing approach actually contained ZERO programmatically useful information. i.e. no real time edge.
I haven't spent much time on this forum in the past but checked in due to Mike's email about this thread. After reading through this thread, I might spend some more time here as I might be missing out on some great bunfights and some sage discussions regarding trading. This thread has been quite amusing to say the least.
I am quite bemused at how experienced traders are getting so bent out of shape owing to what Merlin is attempting to do and how he is responding to some of the advice/posts.
As traders, we have all been through the ringer at some time in our career, and some of us, fortunately, have come out the other side successfully. Some haven't yet found their own success, but are seeking it in whichever way they believe they need to. Fellow traders can assist, give advice and attempt to help, but if someone is not willing to accept all that, so be it. It is unnecessary to kick and shout and insult in order to "ensure" our advice is heard and taken to heart. If the recipient of our advice chooses to continue along the pathway they believe is correct, they should be allowed to.
By threatening, sulking and throwing tantrums by trying to get Merlin banned is really quite silly - that's what 2 year old kids do - we as adults and actually more so as traders, should have or develop far thicker skins. We should not be offended so quickly - there is far too much other strife in the world than adding to it in a traders forum.
I personally believe, and for me it was an actual defining moment in my trading career, that you have to hit rock bottom, with multitudes of errors in various aspects of one's trading (be it strategy related, money management related or most importantly psychologically related) before you can actually see the forest for the trees and become a successful trader. It is the ultimate journey that one needs to traverse to become successful. Same as drug addicts and alcoholics - they have to hit rock bottom before they eventually turn the corner. It might be how our genetic makeup is woven into us!
This thread, like any others, should be allowed to run its course and let Merlin meet all the demons that are waiting at the end of the journey. If he manages to see through those and fight through them, he might become a successful trader. If not, he can simply just join the huge heap of wannabees who unfortunately couldn't make it in the hardest career on the planet.
Everyone should just relax, get the popcorn and read whichever threads they find interesting. I have to say I have sat reading this thread with a smile on my face! Thanks to all those that have posted.
I couldn't agree more. If I was the admin of this forum, pretty much page 2 and up would have been deleted right now because as we speak, it's already over for whatever we can talk about.
NOBODY is going to read 25 pages of bitching so we lost 90% of the people who are coming on page 1.
The Millionaire in 10 weeks was based in my 2014 research that was on Forex where I would need to make 26.5 pip on a daily basis so that I could get enough profit $ to buy a 2nd Forex Lot costing $1,300 at that time.
Today, I don't trade Forex, I trade Futures and even that evolved a lot since 2014. Not only the Mini Russell Contract (RTY) has doubled it's daily range but today, you can even buy a Micro Russell Contract (M2K) for just $25!!!
As I was explaining on page 1, each ticks pays $0.50 so 50 ticks in the right direction and you have made a $25 profit and can now be able to buy a 2nd M2K contract.
So technically speaking, if we would make that 5 pts profit (100% ROI) on a daily basis and don't lose too one of those 5 pts (100% DrawDown) then it wouldn't take us 3 weeks (16 doublings) to reach the Million.
Now before you all jump on me and call me a moron or dreamer, I need to say that EVEN if we make our 5 pts on most trading days, we will still won't be able to get to the Million $ by doubling our contracts. Sooner or later we will hit a wall where when we get in with 100+ contracts things are turning against us and the slippage becomes too big, the volatility of the RTY, believe it or not won't be able to handle it.
Here's a screen of my 2 ticks Renko bars near the close at 4 Pm. You can see that even when everybody is getting out, we don't get passed the 500 trades on the same tick meaning that if you buy 256, 512, 1024 or 2048 contracts (see diagram below) like we need to buy to go from $500K to $1M, we won't be filled instantly and look at the drop in price in just those 5-6 bars, 1 full point was lost.
Conclusion, Tim was right and we will need to lock in our contracts to get there and as to HOW LONG we will get there, only a good trading system will let us do it and only the backtesting will confirm this. Right now, I have no clue how long it will take becuse I don't have Tim's system.
Btw, what are you saying? That any strategy and backtesting won't work, and everything is doomed to fail?
Yes I know, I have already a thread talking about this but not everyone has the time nor the interest to hear 25 pages of pickering and bitching to reach the part where I start sharing the code I have and the code I get form other programmers.
If Big Mike or any other admin would be willing to delete the last 24 pages of us arguing then I would post it there but nobody will see it. So before any admin move this page or merge it with the Millionaire in 10 weeks thread, PLEASE wait a couple of days so that the most people will be able to see before it gets lost on page 25 or 26 of an already messy thread.
Before I post the code, you need to understand the logic of this indicator and why I think it's by far the best indicator I've seen and trust me, after 14 years spent on the TradeStation forum which is "Indicator, strategy and backtesting" HEAVEN for any programmer out trade.
First, my 2 clouds indicator does NOT LAG like 99.999% of the other (Price Channel) indicators out there.
Why is that?
It's because indicators are usually based on previous X number of bars back. So if you have a 50 MA on your chart, that Moving Average has is calculated on the previous 50 bars AND THAT... makes it lag.
It's the same with most price channel indicators out there (Keltner, Bollinger Bands, Donchian Channel, etc..). They are all based on previous bars, not mine.
Mine is based on a FIXED PRICE VALUE.
As you can see, the upper and lower bands of the channel stay parallel during all this climb...
Here's another price channel (keltner), noticed how it it smoothly curved. This is caused by making an "average" of previous bars and because of that it lags.
Here's a closer shot of what happens on my price channel.
At the beginning, the channel was blue because we were coming out of a downtrend but look what happened when the price moved back up inside the channel and moved 1 BAR above the upperband...down to the very last tick of that bar... BOOM the 5 pt fixed price of the channel has been crossed and therefore, the whole channel changes color from blue to white and the center line also changed from red to green.
In other words, when the trend changes direction and hits a SPECIFIC FIXED PRICE for that channel, the channel changes color and indicates a trend direction change.
One common line that I heard 100 times throughout my 15 years in this trading business is...
"First..FIND THE TREND and then BUY THE DIPs"
Well when you load this indicator on your charts, the first thing you will notice is how good it is to spot the big trend (when there is one of course). If the market makes a big move that indicator will catch it and fairly early.
So what I did is remove the upper and lower bands of that channel and only kept the red/green center line that I call my Merlin Squared MA.
Then I used 4 of those Squared MA and for now the settings are 6 and 8 pts for the faster TF cloud (light blue and white) and 10 and 12 pts for the slower TF cloud (gray and dark blue).
You end up with this on your 0.2 pt high Renko bar chart.
Now yesterday, Sevak (1 of the programmer working with me at converting this EasyLanguage indicator code) was able to convert it in C# and it seems to be working fine on NinjaTrader (NT8) as you can see... his chart is right smack on the nose because our chart looks the same.
However, when I loaded it into my MultiChart (.NET version) editor, I got all these errors...
Now before you tell me to go with the version of MultiCharts that accept EasyLanguage, you need to understand that both version of MC cost $1,500 each but with my new broker (Amp Futures), you can get the .NET version for free with no monthly fee!
Because I like"FREE STUFF" and knowing that people who are interested in trading but don't have millions to throw away, they will be happy to go with this free MC version however, I will still need some help to convert it and debug it for MC too.
So first, here's the EasyLanguage code for those who have TradeStation or MultiCharts w/EasyLanguage...
And here's the code for NinjaTrader.
At the time I write this post, this is a screenshot of what you should see on today's chart if you set your bars to 0.3 pt Renko bars on a M2K (Micro Russell 2000) chart.
Once again, don't get too excited, NO INDICATOR alone will make you rich. To make it big you need an ENTIRE ROBUST TRADING SYSTEM.
So if a programmer out there who have Multicharts .NET version and know C#, maybe you can take the C# of the NinjaTrader that seems to work and debug it so that it fits on MC too.
Then we will start to mastermind on he best entries we can find using this indicator.
If you managed to read all 25 pages, you are a saint (or just love drama) but sadly, based on experience as forum admin, I know that very few people get passed the 2-3 first pages ESPECIALLY if those first 3 pages are constant bitching so I create a new thread and posted the code for my 2 Clouds Indicator (for both TradeStation and NinjaTrader).
Please stop creating duplicate threads. Anything to do with this topic shall remain here in one single thread, everyone can read it or not read it, it's up to them. But we won't split the topic.