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Less likely to visit 3900 but if RV and Delta remains strong above 70, will consider bailing out.
SPY Options call and put volumes have been bearish but I'm still learning about their intra day correlation with ES. Just observation and not necessarily an actionable tool yet.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
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Went Flat @ 75. Not a bad theme for short but distracted due to family calls and hence took the loss. -15 pts.
30+ from my 1st long and gave 1/2 when I'm short.
I didn't pay much respect to volume delta force today. When buyers were actively buying @ open, I got out of my longs. Same mistake when I reversed my bias changed to short. Buyers weren't done yet. As i'm typing, sellers gathering steam and price down to 70. Howeve, I'm done for the day.
Need to tend my new born twins so that my wife can get some sleep
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
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Back to business.
Short again from 93. Will add more if we revisit 3900.
Obvious reason is we are hitting the resistance i.e put wall with low volume and lack of support from option chain so far.
I will most likely hold this short overnight even if we stay above 3900 without pullback. The reason is statistical edge. When ES closed above 2%(>200 occurunces in 20 years), it not only has a bearish follow up the next day, we are also more likely to gap down. That's a juicy prospect, especially when we have tailwind from the option market. Will see.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,757 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,497
Thanks Received: 3,059
My weekend Overnight short paid me a little over 15 points. Not a lot but I will take anything other than a loss. Gap down open as expected but less bearish than I expected.
Since overnight price was compressed and directionless, I went flat @ RTH open.
Currently momentum and internals are still mildly bearish. Hence have a bracket breakout order to the downside if we revisit 3881.
If we make a new HOD, then my bias will become bullish and will look into entry on PB.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,757 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,497
Thanks Received: 3,059
New short @ 3881.
Not super confident but the momentum is still down. Hence going along for a ride. Won't be surprised with quick move back to vwap and won't hesitate to reverse my bias to long.
Trading: Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Years
Posts: 1,757 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,497
Thanks Received: 3,059
Short again 3891.
Volume picked up quite a bit, but the range is still very compressed. Just 35% of 5 day ATR.
I'm not sure whether this is all we are going to get today. Normally I would say yes, during the week of FOMC. However, looking at the volume, I think there is quite a bit of interest now in getting us out of this tight range. It's more likely to be the downside.
However, if we test 3900 again, I'm out.
Edit. Flat again. Breakeven. Expected a quicker decisive move but we are back to chop. Not worth it now. May revisit during closing hour.