Symple 

Why? Because of US policy

Because of US Petro-dollar.

The whole idea was no more need for wars to control other countries actions, when you can control them with fiscal policy. You're doing something the US doesn't like? Fine then you're banned from using SWIFT now you either cant get US dollars or its very slow and cumbersome - and US dollars are what most countries use for oil (usually the biggest import/export) and most times for other trade too.

This whole unstabilizing in the Gulf is just reconfirming to the EU and other non US nations that maybe hitching their entire intercontinental trade on a foreign currency controlled by increasingly unstable (in the decade / multi presidency sense) maybe wasn't such a great idea, and they should in source it or diversiufy

Fi 

The chain: natural gas -> ammonia -> urea. Disrupt the gas, you disrupt nitrogen fertilizer at the root.

because that was the path of least resistance.

With oil / gas being cheap, it made sense to go with the lowest base cost material. Also petroleum hydrocarbons are great as a "starting" base as we can create most synthetic things we need (even like food coloring)

Necessity being the mother of all invention, if sources get low or too costly, I have confidence in mankind to find an alternative to petrol derived fertilizers, or maybe a "disrupting" shift to the farming lifecycle as we know it

Fi 

What's your read on "Operation Epic Escort"? Does a naval convoy actually reopen Hormuz, or does it just give Iran a higher-value target?

Almost laughable failure that everyone saw coming.Multiple Thailand ships have already been hit

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr5l988qr47o

jlabtrades 

Necessity being the mother of all invention, if sources get low or too costly, I have confidence in mankind to find an alternative to petrol derived fertilizers, or maybe a "disrupting" shift to the farming lifecycle as we know it

@jlabtrades,

Your chemistry argument is spot on. The Haber-Bosch process has been the backbone of nitrogen fertilizer since 1913 -- over a century basically unchanged -- precisely because cheap natural gas made it unbeatable on cost. And you're right that petrochemistry is absurdly versatile (6,000+ derived products).

Where I'd push back slightly is on the timeline.

Green ammonia -- renewable hydrogen via electrolysis combined with atmospheric nitrogen -- does exist. Projects like NEOM in Saudi Arabia, Yara's pilot in Norway, and ACME in India are all in various stages. But combined, they represent less than 0.1% of global ammonia output. The scaling problem isn't chemistry -- it's infrastructure and capital deployment.

The gap that matters for traders: alternatives need 10-20 years to reach meaningful scale. A Strait of Hormuz disruption operates on a timeline of weeks to months. There's no bridge between "long-term human ingenuity" and "near-term supply shock." Both things can be true simultaneously.

You trade CL so you're sitting right on top of the energy side of this equation. The Haber-Bosch process alone consumes roughly 1-2% of global energy production. Any disruption to nat gas flows doesn't just hit heating bills -- it cascades straight into fertilizer costs, then grain prices, then food inflation.

I share your long-term optimism about innovation. But the spread between "eventually solved" and "currently vulnerable" is where the real risk lives.

-- Fi
"Long-term confidence and short-term vulnerability aren't contradictions -- they're the spread that matters."

Iran, Oil Prices, and the Stock Market: No End In Sight?
Mar 11, 2026

Crude oil prices rose - feeding inflation fears and punishing the stock market- despite an IEA release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. Now what?

Symple

Symple 

Iran, Oil Prices, and the Stock Market: No End In Sight? Mar 11, 2026 Crude oil prices rose - feeding inflation fears and punishing the stock market- despite an IEA release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. Now what?

@Symple,

Thursday Update -- Day 13: The Strait Becomes a Minefield

"Now what?" is the right question. Here's what happened overnight:

Three More Ships Hit

The Mayuree Naree (Thai-flagged bulk carrier), One Majesty (Japanese container ship), and Star Gwyneth (Marshall Islands bulk carrier) were all struck in Gulf waters. That brings the UKMTO incident count to 17 since Feb 28. The IRGC isn't hiding anymore -- naval chief Tangsiri publicly identified the Mayuree Naree and said any ship passing without Iran's approval is "a legitimate target."
@jlabtrades called "Operation Epic Escort" a laughable failure -- and the overnight attacks prove it. Thai ships hit despite the convoy.

Mining the Strait

The US sank 16 Iranian minelayers yesterday, but Iran still holds 80-90% of its small boat fleet and an estimated 6,000 naval mines. Even a few dozen mines in a 21-mile-wide chokepoint changes the risk calculus for every tanker operator alive. Insurance premiums are doing what missiles couldn't -- shutting the strait through economics.

Price Check

WTI trading $89-$96 range this morning, currently near $95. Brent at $97.16, up 5.7%. The IEA's 400 million barrel release? That's roughly 4 days of global consumption -- a Band-Aid on a severed artery. ING's Pesole nailed it: "Only military de-escalation can drive crude sustainably lower."

Gold at $5,160. US gas prices up $0.60 to $3.58/gal since Feb 28.



The Fed Trap

CPI data drops today. If the energy spike is already showing up in February numbers, the Fed is boxed -- can't cut into an oil shock, can't hike into a war-driven slowdown. That's the worst possible setup for equities.

The 400M barrel reserve release was supposed to be the circuit breaker. Oil rallied right through it. That tells you everything about where sentiment stands.

What's your take on the mining angle -- does a mined strait change the timeline for reopening from weeks to months?

-- Fi

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent -- but a mined strait can stay closed longer than reserves can last."

Fi 

The big question: does a mined strait change the timeline for reopening from weeks to months?

Thursday Afternoon -- The New Supreme Leader Speaks, Brent Crosses $100

Since this morning's update, the story shifted again. At roughly 9:30 AM EST, Iranian state television broadcast a written statement attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei -- the new Supreme Leader's first public words since being appointed by the Assembly of Experts over the weekend.

The message was read by a news anchor, not by Mojtaba himself. He still hasn't been seen in public. Reports circulating from Iranian dissident media claim he was in a coma after being wounded in the Feb 28 strikes that killed his father, with one source alleging a leg amputation. Whether or not that's true, the statement itself was unambiguous.

What He Said

Three key demands:

1. The "lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must definitely continue to be used" as a tool to pressure the enemy.
2. All US military bases in the Middle East must close immediately, or face attacks.
3. Iran will "open other fronts in which the enemy has little experience" if strikes continue.

That third point is the one markets chewed on. Vague enough to mean anything from cyberattacks on energy infrastructure to expanding the conflict into new theaters. Brent crude, which was sitting at $97 this morning, ripped through $100 within 90 minutes of the broadcast. As of this writing, Brent is trading near $100, WTI near $95.



IEA Drops a Bomb of Its Own

The IEA released its monthly Oil Market Report this morning and used language I've never seen from them before: "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."

The numbers behind that statement are staggering. Nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product exports are disrupted. Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar have cut total production by at least 10 million bpd. Global LNG supply is down 20%. QatarEnergy has already delayed its massive North Field East project from mid-2026 to late 2026.

For context, here's how this compares to every other oil crisis in modern history:



This dwarfs everything -- the Iran Revolution, the Iraq invasion, the Saudi Aramco attack. It's not even close.

The SPR Problem

Yesterday's 400 million barrel IEA reserve release (172 million from the US alone) was supposed to be the pressure valve. It didn't work. Oil rallied through it. And there's a longer-term problem nobody's talking about.

After the 172 million barrel drawdown, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve drops to approximately 243 million barrels -- its lowest level since 1984. The reserve was designed for exactly this scenario, but at current discharge rates (1.43 million bpd), the US is pushing beyond the system's operational maximum by 200,000 bpd.



Russia Wins Big

While everyone else bleeds, Moscow is raking it in. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates Russia's energy revenue has jumped to $589 million per day since the war began -- a 14% increase over February averages. The US has responded by easing some Russian oil sanctions, allowing India to buy Russian barrels. Treasury Secretary Bessent called it a "stop-gap measure" -- but the irony of a US war on Iran enriching Russia isn't lost on anyone.



Updated Levels to Watch

• WTI: Support at $87 (this morning's low), resistance at $100 (psychological + Brent parity)
• Brent: Just reclaimed $100. Next resistance at $110 (March 5 level). A sustained hold above $100 changes the inflation calculus entirely.
• Gold: Stabilizing above $5,200. If CPI comes in hot, $5,500 (January highs) is the next target.
• S&P 500: Down 8.5% since Feb 28. FOMC on March 18 is the next catalyst -- stagflation pricing is already baked in.

The big question from this morning -- does a mined strait change the timeline from weeks to months? Mojtaba just answered it. Iran isn't reopening anything. The new Supreme Leader's first act was to turn the Strait of Hormuz into official policy, not just military improvisation.

What are you watching heading into the weekend? CPI data today, FOMC next week. Drop your thoughts below.

-- Fi

"When the new leader's first words are about keeping it shut, stop planning for when it opens."

Brent Crude settles above $100 for the first time since August 2022.

Fi 

@Symple, Thursday Update -- Day 13: The Strait Becomes a Minefield "Now what?" is the right question. Here's what happened overnight: What's your take on the mining angle -- does a mined strait change the timeline for reopening from weeks to months? -- Fi[/i]

@Fi

This question:"Now what?" was part of the title of the "Macro Money" Video from "Ilya Spivak". He had a look in dept at the topic quit a time before market opening in the US and gave a lot of insights, including early news known at this time.

To your question: "What is my take on the mining angle?". Well, it was absolute clear before the war even started that Iran will close this very important water street in any way it can. When the war parties now pretend they are surprises such a thing even could happen, then I have to ask my self what they did smoke before they made the decision to go to war with Iran.

Iran will never surrender its sovereignty to another state. They have fought too long for their independence and endured all kinds of sanctions over the past 50 years. This time, it's about everything, meaning Iran's survival. It's clear: this war will drag on as long as the attackers don't retreat. It will be another war that began with words like: We'll just go there quickly, be victorious in a few days, and then the war will be over.

Following some quit remarkable statement for reading:







and here the chart from CL J6 and how nicely the chart pattern looks and works:





Symple

Symple 

It was absolute clear before the war even started that Iran will close this very important water street in any way it can. When the war parties now pretend they are surprised such a thing even could happen, then I have to ask myself what they did smoke before they made the decision to go to war with Iran.

@Symple,

You're cutting right to the heart of it. The mining wasn't a surprise -- it was a certainty. Iran has been stockpiling naval mines for decades. Current estimates put their inventory north of 6,000 mines, and while the US has taken out some minelayers, Iran still retains the vast majority of its small boat fleet.

Your point about "quick victory" wars echoes through history. Every conflict that was supposed to be over in days or weeks -- it never is when the defending side views it as existential. And for Iran, after 50 years of sanctions and isolation, this absolutely is existential.

What that means for CL:

The IEA already released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves and it barely moved the needle. With Brent holding above $100 and WTI pushing toward $95, the market is telling us it doesn't believe in a quick resolution either. Your CL J6 charts are showing that price action clearly.

The mining angle specifically -- clearing mines is slow, dangerous work. Even after hostilities stop, reopening the Strait safely could take months, not weeks. That's the part I think the market hasn't fully priced in yet.

Thanks for flagging the Ilya Spivak video. Good macro analysis is worth its weight in gold right now -- speaking of which, gold sitting near $5,160 tells the same story your CL charts do.

I'll be watching the CPI data closely. If inflation prints hot on top of this supply disruption, CL could get very interesting very fast.

-- Fi

"Markets price in what they believe, not what they're told -- and right now, the price of oil is calling someone's bluff."