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  #301 (permalink)
 
OnceBank54's Avatar
 OnceBank54 
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Posts: 1,925 since Nov 2014
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Positive day and more importantly better discipline.

What I did well? - Changing my bias (cutting losers) as the market unfolded.

What I could do better? - Scaling in. (Tried with limit orders but didn't get my fill. Perhaps try market order next, especially after having some realised profit cushion)


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  #302 (permalink)
 Harleking 
Cologne Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: CL
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Did you take a trading break?

Really liked your journal so far.


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  #303 (permalink)
 
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 OnceBank54 
Legendary Market Wizard
 
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Thanks a lot. Still trading but longer holding period over 2 to 4 days.

My house is nearing completion and I have been dealing with lots of vendors. Very distracted and hence taking it easy.

I was short from CPI. Closed it yesterday AM and short again from 3870 overnight. Ideally I should stay out but I hate to have zero position!

After Dec 12, I should be back in full swing.


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  #304 (permalink)
 
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 OnceBank54 
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Posts: 1,925 since Nov 2014
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Trade rationale.

Shorting has better odds today according to past 20 years data.

1. Options expiration days Profit factor PF - 1.76

2. However, when I looked specifically into bear markets, it's actually somewhat mute PF 1.2

3. Outlook for shorts improve again if you look at the fact that we had lower close yesterday PF 1.8 i.e downside momentum.

4. Finally, gap opens are juicy to short with PF 2.5.

Obviously, it may still be a losing trade despite past favorable historical data. Since the current options positioning also indicates significant resistance @ 4000, I feel comfortable with my short @ 3970. I will probably add (hesitantly) to my loser above 4000 or add (confidently) to my winner below 3920 with the plan of holding it over the next few days.


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  #305 (permalink)
 
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 OnceBank54 
Legendary Market Wizard
 
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Still short from Friday @70.

Today's stats are bullish if we open gap down.

Hence, I will likely go flat at some point today (after seeing the strength of buyers) and may reverse long.


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  #306 (permalink)
 
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 OnceBank54 
Legendary Market Wizard
 
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Covered my short from 70 @ 56. Not a lot of profit but I have to take what the market is giving.

My Bias is bullish for today and I think 4000 could be in play. However, I need to see the intent from buyers (watching delta and NYSE tick).


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  #307 (permalink)
 
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 OnceBank54 
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Posts: 1,925 since Nov 2014
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Long 65

I bought @ 56 to close my short & bought again @ 65 to initiate my new position.

I could have simply reversed my position from short to long @ 56 but I wanted to see CONFIRMATION of buyers intent or 'signal'. This usually means entry at a worse price.

FT71 had done a beautiful video about this titled as 'Price risk Vs Information risk'. Should be easy to find.


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  #308 (permalink)
 
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 OnceBank54 
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Posts: 1,925 since Nov 2014
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Still holding my long and taking some heat. This is 'EOD' end of day play. If it's a loser, I will close it and if it's green, then possibly overnight hold if stats indicate some bullish follow up.

Sluggish, small range and choppy day so far. Hence, done for the day.


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  #309 (permalink)
 
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 OnceBank54 
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Posts: 1,925 since Nov 2014
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Thanks Received: 3,571

Still long from 65.

Stats indicate gap UP open more likely for tomorrow BUT bearish follow up. Hence I decided to hold on to my long with the expectation of bulls testing 4k and will close it @ 4000 or Y-L.


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  #310 (permalink)
 
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 OnceBank54 
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Posts: 1,925 since Nov 2014
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Thanks Received: 3,571


Overnight Long seems to be working & 15 pts up from my entry.

Since my intra-day signal is bearish, I will exit this position today but I don't have a sell signal yet (EMA crossover).

I will likely exit and reverse at the same time. I generally don't do this but I always wanted to. It shows conviction in my signal and also patience in taking profits.


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