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Hi Feibel.
I understand you are looking for the right setup on 2 charts at the same time (tick and regular). On 5 min. you would simply miss the trade in D.
5 min. regular chart shows almost opposite: huge bullish bar at the beginning on the wave from B to D. Attached you can see. We know that the direction has changed VERY Quickly only at the breakout point. Breakout bar (BR) is weaker than bullish bar at the beginning of this wave. I had total confusion at this point. I had mixed signals.
1. In your decision making at the point D why did you put so much weight on the TICK chart channel via D (particular on the upper bound in your main channel) and decided to ignore signals on the regular chart?
2. in your channel drawing method on the TICK chart did you draw upper bound of the main channel (red down) first? and bottom bound - second?
How can you totally rely on this line in your decision? It basically became main channel for the day. Yesterday lower (green)? I should not have traded too close and against the resistance Green line.
Thank you very much.
Let's ignore the noise on this thread.
Bar B had sizeable volume, but check out how narrow the spread was... there was a lot of selling in that bar which would have been a big clue that supply was present. Effort vs. reward... if bar B were all buying, it would have made much further progress up.
Check out the three bars of similar size just prior to that... two of them had much larger spreads on the same volume which should give you a better idea of what would be "normal" movement for that amount. It would take some effort for bulls to get back through that level (previous support turned resistance) which would have shown itself with volume increasing; instead there is flat/generally decreasing volume... I would have been looking for a short when price got close to the resistance area.
With market background one would be looking for short opportunities. We were below support as noted in the 30 min. chart below as well as a tad deep for a spring. It's a good idea to review market background. No offence intended, a simple reminder of how important background is to increase our LOK (level of knowledge).
Rrrracer, it is interesting how you look at the proportions of volume vs spread. Somehow I look at development of volume and spread during seccion not in this systematic way. High volatility at beginning and at end and lower at the middle are typical wave during the day and this is preventing me to make this comparison. Some other factors effect these proportions. That why I resist to see these bars as equal for analysis. I saw support at bottom, double bottom revesal. I did not feel the price will go lower than yeasterday lower. Questions I had: Why all this higher volume in B did not push price lower? Strong buying?
I did not have the red Chanel down at that time. ( through D on Feibel's chart.)
Background. That is correct. I got the same picture. Trade only in the direction of the background.
Thank you very much.
This is just to validate the method and learn more.
Riveting post analysis but so what? How does all that help you going forward? I dont see any forwardlooking scenario planning on your chart. Dont get enticed into this feeling of confidence that you know whats going on just because you can look back and make up a story about what you think is going on. Its all make believe because none of use know the actual reason why price went somewhere, or spiked a zone, or suddenly reversed, or pulled back etc...
There is no story, it just did what it did. Even if there was a story its completely useless to you and me because those conditions are now gone, the players might be different, moods are probably different, fundamentally things might have changed, a colossal sized hedged position just liquidated for completely unrelated reasons ....just too many variables which you and I know NOTHING about in realtime.
Im not being rude, Im trying to help you. This kind of look back technical analysis will be harmful to you in the long run. This thread has good information relating to interpretation of wyckoff but you have to try and implement it realtime. This is the hard part because your information is always incomplete but thats what you have got to get used to.
Why don't you guys comment every 15min bars as the day develops with your take on what's going. It seems to me that would be more real and give us all an idea of the strength of the concepts presented in this thread in real time.
Trading price requires a perceptual and conceptual readjustment. We “MUST” react to what we’ve planned in advance. Moving forward, does future price agree with this analysis, is the future price action, no it’s character, confirming my analysis? If not why not? That’s where the rubber meets the road. All we can do as traders, is take the opportunities as they present themselves and control “RISK”.
It would be cool if you could post your plan before the day begins and the readjustment you need to make as the day progresses. Curious that no one who believes in this approach is doing it.