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I squeezed in 1 intraday trade on Friday. In MES I was eyeing a pullback long and had a resting limit order to get in. Market came within 3 ticks of target and turned around. I had to leave and I closed it for a small gain of $10 on 1 lot.
Swing Trades:
MES:
One of my MES swing ideas triggered on Tuesday. Per last week: "I like value around 3195 for a long." I had a resting order there and was filled for a nice quick profit of $310 on 1 lot.
M6E:
I took a pullback resting limit entry in M6E at 1.1166 which remains open with an unrealized $0 on 2 lots.
I am a little disappointed but not surprised that I missed the short entry, per last weeks idea: "I might look for a deflection lower around 1.1235". This is a problem spot in my trading right now. I have come to realize that for me, personally, I depend on very clear pre-meditated process for execution on both ends of a trade, entry and exit. There are some setups where I will do all the work in advance - put in a limit entry and a target and let the platform do the work. These are my higher confidence ideas.
For ideas like this one where I am concerned the market will blow through my entry zone, I don't want to leave a limit order in. So I am waiting for just a little more confirmation. But I have not defined exactly what that confirmation looks like. So I have some work to do to make sure I have a clear entry plan for these scenarios - absent that, I will err on the side of caution and keep waiting until eventually the market just goes on without me, one way or the other.
MGC:
MGC didn't come back for a pullback long. It did ride higher to a potential short entry. Per last week, "One would think the prior highs around 1570 won't fall immediately. So a fade may have some merit up there." It blew through the level and at that point I was considering a short entry at higher levels. But this would have been a new trade idea and as I was travelling last week I ended up skipping the opportunity. I doubt I would have entered it anyways, as my rules for fade entries are wishy-washy.
The Week To Come:
M6E: Currently long in this instrument and will wait until trade closes to re-evaluate.
MES:
MES still very strong. I was tempted to try a repeat of last week and put in a limit entry on the chance for a dip in and deflection upward from the 3240 range. But something about this expanding triangle structure leaves me suspicious. I will put a more conservative long limit order around 3215, which is closer to the daily channel bottom, combined with nearterm support. Being so conservative may mean I miss another ride higher, but that's OK. I'll also watch for topping out over 3300. If we get there it will be an oppurtunity to develop my fade rules.
MGC:
The high from Jan 7 has the look of a short term blow-off top. Which would make the current atmosphere one of correction, which should be traded delecately. I won't have any agressive limit entries going into the week. I will have alerts in the 1580 area for a possible turnaround short. And 1533 down to 1510 all could be nice bounce-back long entries.
There will likely be some good opportunities this week for me to flesh out my confirmation requirements for entering the less-confident setups. Whatever it is, I will aim for it to be as simple and clear cut as possible. I'm really not looking for a pattern - I just want to be sure that the structure of my trade is still valid and the level wasn't completely blown through.
Summary Realized Results for Week 1:
Swing $310
Intraday: $10
Entered a swing long in M6E on Jan 8. Exited on Jan 17 at break even.
Did not take any other trades. Busy week, no time for intraday trading. MGC came close to my action area but not quite. MES made the run up but I did not enter the fade.
Week to come:
MES:
This smells like danger but f**k it. It already hit my watch price (see last week) and now I'll put my chips in for a short on a retest around 3317.5 if I can get it. Beware the squeeze.
M6E:
Chart is a mess. Not very interesting stuff here, but I'll keep an eye on 1.1160 for a short possibly.
MGC:
MGC is still strong like bull. It gave up very little ground during the latest run up in equities. I will keep an eye on major resistance in the 1570 area for a possible squeeze long entry.
Summary Realized Results for Week 2:
Swing $0
Intraday: $0
My short limit was filled on Tuesday at the open at 3317.50. My target limit was filled earlier today at the open at 3271. Maybe I was a little conservative with my target as the market dipped another 19 handles, but I'll take the win.
No trades in M6E or MGC. I was looking for the squeeze higher in MGC but this is another type of trade that I have to hone my entry rules on. It's popped a bit to open Sunday. But there's still time to get in on this one . . . I just haven't decided whether I will, or how.
I'm in a strange frame of mind and will probably postpone the rest of my analysis and leave my tradebook empty until tomorrow. As an L.A. native, a basketball player and fan since I was a little kid, and as a father, I was shocked hearing the news about Kobe today, along with everyone around me, standing outside of their cars lost and wordless, waving a jersey over a freeway pass, looking for a connection over the piece of our communal experience that got yanked out of us today. Obviously I never new him, but I felt hit by this in a way I don't really comprehend, to be honest. I just keep thinking how much he gave us fans, just by showing us what he could do out there. What could be done out there. By expanding the possible. By winning.
I didn't post my remarks on Friday - got pulled into a mess at the office. I did my morning analysis, and watched my scenario play out, but my head wasn't in the game and I didn't take any trades. Rather than post my charts, I'll just …
Very timely, great post and great message. Thanks man.
Yeah, it’s a strange thing to process. What catches me by surprise, of course the tragic circumstances, but his fans never knew him — he was by all accounts an imperfect person — but he had given some irreproducible memories to many of us. And the feeling now is not of losing a friend or family, but of realizing the impact of those memories, and that its source was human, and is gone.
I took a stab at an intraday long in MGC (feb) yesterday morning. I was looking to buy the dip at what I thought would be a well defended 1570 area, but it just didn't bounce until after the market closed. So I took a 17 dollar loss exiting at the close.
Swing Idea:
MGC (apr):
MGC, MES, M6E are all interesting right now. I'm going to focus on MGC for the moment - mostly for pragmatic reasons. Although I typically take reversal trades, favoring pullbacks in a broader trend, this chart presents an interesting opportunity as I see it. We have a little breakout pull back / squeeze kind of thing happening here. Yes, it could absolutely fail and dump, turning into a second leg in a downward correction. That's the game. 1550 should be well defended by gold bulls at this point, having tested, broken out, tested again, and back on the upswing. I'll take a long at1580-ish if I can get it and see if we pop over 1600.
MES looks like it wants to put in another leg lower but I already got a piece of that action last week and I am already playing the "fear" trade with my long in MGC. A short in MES combined with a long in MGC right now may be too much correlation. And it's still got bull legs sitting underneath this recent sell off. So I'll pass for now.
M6E is battered and reaching approaching a previously defended support area, but its really damaged goods and I am still in a wait and see approach there.
Got long MGC at 1579.7. Moved stop to BE. Looking for a pop over 1600.
MES:
That hunch about MES making another leg down seemed to work out. I didn't trade it. Now a trip down to 3185 would make a lot of sense structurally. I don't want to get caught long in a panic so I'll set an alert for 3190 and then observe for a potential long opportunity at support.
M6E:
M6E found buyers in the 1.10s and popped higher with the drop in usd / equities. Over the last 6 months the Euros comfort area has been in the 1.1150 range. It's tempting to fade this pop but I am leaning the other way with the angle that we are gravitating back toward the center of that long term range. So I'm calling this a broken down move and the beginning of a possible new up move. I'll set an alert for a pullback opportunity in the 1.1085 area.
Focusing on maintaining an even keel as the market turns a little bumpier here.
Results for Week 4:
Swing Unrealized: $149
Intraday: -($17)
I was taken out at break-even as I waited in vein for a pop over 1600. This week I have alerts at the edges of the range 1600-1550. I don't know if I have the cajones to trade the range outright. Might take a break-out-pull-back in either direction if it materializes.
M6E:
I was looking for a new swing upward after the strong move upward off the former-bottom in early Feb. That was clearly the wrong idea, as we are now reaching for new bottoms. I took a loss on 2 lots. For the coming week, seems the Euro is rather sick, so I'll take a short it if it comes up to 1050 area.
MES:
I have little interest fading MES at the moment, and it remains bullish above 3300. I might take a pullback entry if it gets to the low 3300s. Or I might look long on a break above 3336.
Results for Week 5:
Swing: -($105)
Intraday: No trades
I'm bummed wasn't able to catch the long entry opportunity today in MES. My alert hit me in the early morning and I was watching while at work as it hovered around 3336-40 before it slipped away popping to new highs. Still working on my entry techniques for this kind of setup. Sometimes the market will sit and slowly squeeze, and other times, it just pauses briefly before jumping. I normally stick to the 4-hour chart for swing entries but I will consider dropping to a H1 for a better view at the time of entry. Maybe.
Quick update on M6E:
DAILY:
Zooming out to the daily, this explains why I'm currently thinking of fading this downtrend to the long side. In this 12 month downtrend M6E has had trouble going more than around 275 pips down before retracing. Most of the down legs don't make it nearly that far. So, I will set an alert and monitor around 1.0900
Proportion of counter-trend trades is too high. A personal weakness that I must correct. I saw the strength of ES and GC, but missed entries for good trades with the trend. I saw the weakness of 6E, but instead of following it, I faded it with a long entry and took a loss.
M6E:
Not going to post any analysis today.
I need to spend some time with the charts and focus on trend entry technique and plan from there. February has been crap because I am missing good opportunities with the trend and then trying to make it up with lower quality trades on the opposite side. I am only taking reversion entries and I need to flip that if I'm going to be successful. This is a long standing problem with my trading. Time to tackle it.
I want to have a higher quantity of momentum style entries during trending markets. During ranging messy markets the reversion style entries can play a bigger role.
Results for Week:
Swing: -($132.50)
Intraday: No trades