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Updated December 19, 2022
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November 12th, 2022, 11:06 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
on an upward trajectory since the last push, the late pm dip was just a reload
maybe a few more %pts, enough to hedge for further downside in the MT
changing over to a hybrid method, with some swings on stronger trends
too much quick scalping is over trading / churn for broker commissions
how can you minimize the effort, and risk.. selective entry, exit condition
also levels to slowly scale out , though there may be more on the table
//
the most recent cpi gap and go was actually formed in advance
and the gap was really the end result of those previous days
the open on cpi thursday was the result, allowing the AM play out
what started as a two way street, turned into an ascent with HL, HH
the PM cemented things with another swingable push carrying momo
//
at a higher area, when things become more two-sided, things will digest
not sure on the timing, just going with what is there as things paint
and on the fence, but possibly an area to be wary of with resistance
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Best Threads (Most Thanked) in the last 7 days on NexusFi
November 14th, 2022, 10:25 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
[mood: relaxed, controlled / slightly bored]
now trending, gave a dip for entry and crossed daily, looking for target
took an initial entry in the overnight , treated like a gap event to the open
watched open and found area to scale in two more to average down for starting position
already profitable, probably should have scaled more to be able to peel some toward target
now just watching the minor to peel back just in case, but still under initial entry so not yet
for portfolio stuff, ibb is strong for some reason, xlv and xlp too, rotation? some defensives
//
[mood: slightly surprised / not irritated, waiting]
there was a minor reaction to test the daily, since initial above seen as scaling opp
in a bit early on divergence , should confirm to add more and then do nothing
the early entry is being punished, waiting for confirmation before final scaling
//
[mood: annoyed / dis-engaged, at peace, positioned]
stepped away and came back to force a now late entry but position is scaled
annoying but lesson learned that during a wait, should be patient and more selective
no harm, no foul but slightly annoying, now explicitly defining exit scenarios
another test of the daily will force an exit to make room for additional adds
otherwise, autopilot now, primarily to avoid overtrading / burnout
//
[mood: skeptical / cautious, more comfortable]
decided to scale back around initial entry, giving room in case this HH does not form
have not been watching vix or energy since they are supportive but confusing / lagging
defensive play seemed to be correct as another dip opp presented itself
now prepared for a scenario where the daily is re-tested properly
//
[mood: rushed / anxious, early, gtg]
off to other tasks, saw the reaction around eu close to went with it, daily did re-test
will see what happens, slightly unplanned, but re-gained positioning
//
[mood: hungry / anticipating, holding]
when away exited at some random area trying to remember my levels
came back and looked again and took off another, thought i had more scaled in for some reason
at this point, imagined if things started accumulating instead at open, would be in only a couple
so have scaled back, since profit target actually met, no need to continue further right now
R/R is such now that holding would be good however, the trend seems to be gathering further
//
[mood: more confident, still cautious]
done for the day, holding to close or getting stopped out above breakeven
process is definitely more relaxed and allows more room for error and timing
quick scalping and chasing is too grinding / hard to calculate size-risk quickly
method seems ok, and will avoid days with too much chop or hesitation
//
[mood: flat]
just looking back the exit was in a narrow band though HH/HL still present
compression will take place bringing levels closer together, likely finishing out wave
a bit of expansion could help keep the grind going however, the close should tell more
treating close now as a gap condition similar to overnight, where entry/exit is more rough
EOD
November 15th, 2022, 09:58 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
[mood: decent, swinging]
entered at globex open just to continue, peeled before ppi but scaled back post event
nothing much else, initial entry was low enough to allow scaling more
targets have been lowered slightly due to compression yday, but still similar
seeing that there is a gap condition so peeling back on the pull back just in case
[mood: amazed, adding]
right after peeling, getting back in, but cost avg has gone up due to churn
a sharp downdraft would hit some stops but also allow better positioning
[mood: anticipation, waiting]
the setup is available to slingshot off ppi highs, but wary of extended hours
treated as a gap in the overnight , a revisit / test lower would allow normalcy
[mood: wondering, waiting]
watching the dip and stalking the possible turn reasonable area would be avgs
another sight line would be the ongoing channel, with blips higher that revert
[mood: tying the shoes]
software updates, break for a while, lacing up maybe going fully laced later
[mood: fully laced]
you get the eastbays, lace em up and try not to sell the new kicks on ebay
gloves on, stepping into the area, through the ropes into the ring, ding ding
[mood: took some punches]
peeled out a little due to lack of conviction, some bumps and bruises
rolling with the punches, so that there might be better positioning for a strike
test jabs, peek-a-boo, more jabs, readying a cross, but might eat a hook
stick and move, body shots, step back and jab, start moving in with a combo
laces got slightly untied, gash over the eyebrow, rounds over soon w/ eu close
just staying in, lungs burning, shoulders sore, giving more punches than getting
[mood: hits keep coming]
best defense is offense, do not let them attack, but keep the guard up, quick combos
suddenly, there's an opening, fake right dip left and wait for the opening attack
quick counter slip, cross in, lead hook, rear uppercut all moving ahead with momo
the combo works, keep going in with another, got countered and took hard hits
dancing around until the eu close holding onto a slight lead, let's see what happens
slight underdog, using the seeming weakness as an advantage, quietly patiently waiting
[mood: give them some punches, dazed but not confused]
giving away some, peeling back again, seeing what the weakness is for an opening
taking the punches to observe further, suddenly there is an opening, they tire out
a couple combos as a response, keep stepping forward, through the counter to test
the last punch actually hits, enough to the ropes, body cut cut, keep them cornered
eu close, round is over, saved by the bell, wait for the exit and finishing move
[mood: the fight between the bull and bears is over]
though we already knew what would probably happen like jake paul, still fun to watch
sore about the eagles mashing their win streak, but time to just reel in the lines
[mood: weak hands or not, going small]
the momo / gap was not maintained, not necessarily weak hands but avoiding levels
not that close yet but breaching would really be an exit signal, so just pacing
turning into a consolidation area, which would cause breakout target to hit
sort of a denouement, end goal of expansion is there with the ppi gap
after that no man's land, and reason for going small, uncertainty is a pain
[mood: curious]
stepped out for a bit, saw a dip and got back in it to win it, good back and forth
looks like the expansion is not taken for granted at this point and healthy action
seems like noise but this is preferred to narrow blipping, and is a two-way exchange
[mood: enlightened]
with levels wide apart, the exchange can allow for a revisit of the previous close
this helps set expectations for sizing and whether or not to continue a swing
[mood: looking ahead]
so there is a turning station where the trolley would make way for another destination
the breakout and then more two-way action will give more clues based on poc , kinda almost
but not really until things really paint it out, still chugging along, good for the lazy strat
the old btd when the opportunity strikes and just let things sit until the next dip swing
this also allows for these gap events so there is less fomo which leads to poor entries
quick drops like today work too, but there's some peace of mind from not holding too
in practice, will probably opt for the latter and give some breathing room
[mood: shop closed]
now that the close is near, the action until the next open is treated as a gap event
EOD
November 16th, 2022, 09:35 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
[mood: refreshed]
back in it, looks like a dip in the making, treading water now
possibility of the prev close from the level testing
dow less unhappy than most, a bit of a clue
[mood: stalling]
energy is dipped too, there is eia dow still positive, these kinda days, ok to wait until after
[mood: less stalled]
draw and energy doing stuff, actually not really but the lull is less now
[mood: pensive]
LT, DT
MT,UT
ST,DT
majority still has sway
[mood: baiting the hook]
dropping in a line, seems like the eu environment is the source of drag
type of behavior is similar to early stages, where the majority sways:
LT,DT
MT,UT
ST,UT
[mood: curious]
another RT type possibility
also some utility in vix but more for LT
[mood: fish are biting]
the post eia was an early accumulation phase, really gave a good window
then some type of mid phase, consolidation and then expansion
realize that expansions can go either way
[mood: half time]
usually around eu close marks the initial session, mid-lull and close
try to taper off around the first half and just keep mindful of the later action
[mood: done]
EOD , early but putting marker here
[mood: concept]
small balance board on a big balance board such that balance is set in equilibrium
smaller balance board can find different equilibria but big balance sets the motion
the boards are rocking together with a set motion (sum of moments)
overall they may be slowly rocking one way but the period must sway opposite
so at times, the balance is slightly upset providing opportunity to rebalance
trying to keep up with the overall pendulum swings that control the clockwork
[mood: inspired]
idea for tinkering, having something against the block to maintain the positioning
but just to hedge against especially on days like today, where holding still chops
otherwise levels are still intact and just shifting from leaning one way to the other
November 17th, 2022, 09:36 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
[mood: meh]
another dip opp, kinda interesting overnights so far this week
only thing is that the equilibrium is still tipsy so the swings are shorter
also have to do more with less due to the shift in balance
[mood: hmm]
what is interesting is that the balance is being restored at a default level
so the tilting is much more evened out, and may be a better positional situation
[mood: cautious]
light and not heavy for now, the churn has to work itself out
level matters but is not an absolute, just a marker of general situation
the retrace reaction was kinda interesting and does give some hints
[mood: looking out]
turn confirmation would be useful for adjusting positioning still light
cannot afford to be too early and need to wait for confirmation
shifting sentiment more towards the middle ground
[mood: devil's advocate]
so now through the looking glass, imagining the other side in this
there was a faint opp for entry but did not confirm and went against
as the balance has been in favor this is a surprise there is another opp
pending development, to see if the shift still runs in this vein of thought
sentiment will reveal slowly, sort of tease and then boxes start checking
the reaction did not favor the opposition and is considered late phase
[mood: ahead]
the range type mood would have to re-clear several closes but also gains
considered early overall, but has collected more level targets in the dip
this close re-test would place the equilibrium toward aligned tilt to hit levels
those breaches once in late stage would in turn shift sentiment again
[mood: current]
so closer to early-mid at this point, having established sentiment
waiting for follow through, considered early re-test of laggers
[mood: fine print]
so strangely due to consistency targets, just realized by conditions, forced to flatten
really early right here, closing out, really should be holding but a strange rule
EOD
[mood: just watching]
testing from prev close, sentiment of overnight , that is an opp to position further
as levels are still maintained, that the closes past are also unfinished as well
harder to see the aftermath, though the close reaction can be guessed
likely to hold with continuation, with the flag a hint of further extension
[mood: caveat]
do not trust boards, social media even this to provide dd, they lag, are incomplete, etc.
also, some are actually pretty wrong most of the time, whether on purpose or not
dangerous to engage in for fee access, which limits independent critical thinking
following a trend sure, just less so something outside of the paint in lala land
[mood: missing out]
fun to be had, have to sit out, but the retrace was not strong enough to satisfy the devil
usually would be considered early entry, but this is a healthy bounce to accumulate
the lunchtime crowd gets free admission into the happy fun land theme park
another visual is that this can be see as the start of a new bowl opening up
expansions are still maintained another hint is the pace of the pullback
the overall pace today has been gentle, so something like this is quick and dirty
causing fewer participants through the flush and more during the buildup
[mood: further dev]
looks like the retrace developed further and gave another chance to drop in
dip is primed for even more participants, hard part is determining if this is a swing
default is nah, unless there is a reaction toward the close, closer to 50/50 though
some would be rewarded with a coin flip hold in the extended session with vigilance
also consider the upcoming events, minutes and holidays, so could be funky
reaction is optimistic, so there might be more stuffing for those who like fowl but ain't
November 18th, 2022, 09:39 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
[mood: tgif]
some nice dipping sauce, gotta wait though, they always run outta wendy's bbq sauce
possibly a rewind to the prev close, may also reward the overnight swingers as well
if there is a premium to holding and positioning, then strength is there, otherwise technical
has not yet touched the area, though bounced off previous minor support, still testing
the hold overnight was only rewarded until the open, afterward has been in decline
running things back does test the balance so there may be fair game sooner or later
[mood: warming up the tires]
gentleman, start your engines, the slicks are on, ambient conditions normal, fueled up
some hit throttle wide open too soon, hold revs for a bit, yellow clicks then brake off
cannot rev hard too soon either, will spin out, gotta ease onto clutch less dropping
[mood: still on e-brake]
track is on a red/yellow flag, cautious conditions ahead, entry angle is off as well
[mood: green light]
go, go, quick shifts, make it clean and fast
struggling off the line, false start, wind it back
run that back turbo, qb as a running back, like the eagles, cept the commanders running it back
[mood: ok back of the line, on the strip again]
speed racer, all your base are belong to us
[mood: siesta, fri pm]
energy dip, flex fuel ethanol alternative is ok, better octane and cooling properties
kinda action that reminds one never to go full retard, energy is low low, ok for traveling
the whole drag strip went on a long lunch, had to re-fuel, might as well gas up at the pump
then realize to go 0.1 sec faster, requires 110% more fuel, so is it worth, etc.
gonna turn on the burners anyway, plus ethanol burns cleaner just watch the fuel lines
[mood: full tank of flex fuel]
trying to convert to an E85 tune, pain to run the tank and then flash, needs bigger fuel pump
requires higher injection rate as well, but focusing on energy since there is an influence
the fri nymex settle and RB held lower, enjoy some decent safer travels or just go ethanol
one for the tank, one for the driver, etc. if only, a half week next week with fewer events
EOD with the close of energy
week in review, the extension of levels caused some turbulence, but back in balance
there have been several examples of islands and this may be something similar
[mood: shift in sentiment]
balance but shifting one of the last transfers made with the dip sentiment, not good
looks like the early day was setting up pylons and bumpers for the new route
drag strips are still running but the traffic signals are a bit different now
[mood: alerted]
is thanksgiving cancelled or something, things are souring awful quickly here
possible resumption of the ongoing major and leftovers already taken
dagger being stuck into the side, defending but starting to bleed
November 20th, 2022, 09:19 PM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
[mood: alarmed]
well, have the same problem of already hitting targets, so gotta take off until next overnight
EOD
also, vix seemed to signal from last week though is less alarmed than say, energy
suggesting a more controlled environment though deflationary, as intended
diminished vol allows for lower hedging premia, options bought vs sold
vix was controlled rather properly, to avoid any semblance of panic
November 22nd, 2022, 09:54 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
[mood: sleepy]
another LH for the continued swing, could position near the open where the prev close was revisited
[mood: less sleepy]
bounded movement but drifting, vix keeps slinking as well, shallow maybe intended to fill areas
[mood: ~E75 = E85 + 110 octane GT260]
passed by a c8 zr1, prob also getting some race fuel, sticking to e85 with some as octane booster
tune is already slipping the wheels at launch, have to bring on the torque slowly with low boost
[mood: let it snow?]
either a black ◆ or double black diamond ◆◆ type, just needs good pow, maybe some moguls / ice
prob more snow than avg, gotta get the severe snow rated grip on and the de-icer
already saw what happened in buffalo, so bring some of that!
November 23rd, 2022, 10:29 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
[mood: pre-break]
test to see bid up but mostly from vix run though energy is sunk
though e85 is 30% less, the mpg is also 30% less, so similar to rb
octane/anti-knock is better with a cooling effect so there are adv
looking at zc_f and hoping that a cooling effect might happen there too
[mood: positioned]
guess they let things run a bit, to get into swings, not a bad opp
apex is a bit diff since they do not continue the trail with paid accts
there are some swing accts however that are similar, gotta pay for data
almost to the point where kinetick is not really a thing anymore
black fri / cyber mon, maybe things will be offered @ discount
EOD
November 28th, 2022, 09:49 AM
boston ma
Posts: 389 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
[mood: post-break gear-up]
recognized a flat type re-bal, but out now. vix decided to choose a different path
[mood: pondering]
so racing/shooters, do they enable improper risk or allow exploration similar to any sim
possibly an environment, with guidance and proper rule development, carried over
to a real situation, allows understanding of boundaries, where they can be over-stepped
but needs to be real enough to punish mistakes and provide an accurate simulation
that is, fun can be had too, but that fun should not translate to a real-world parallel
without deeply engrained pop -ups that this is not real life, there should be warnings
//
one could also take the other way, in a real scenario like a military-trained vet in games
or practice non live-round combat scenarios that understand positioning and survivability
fully engrained already is the experience that would not easily force common mistakes
there are pilots who train on sim sure, and gran turismo has translated simmers to realtime
guessing that there was a hybrid reals/sim exposure prior to be able to squeeze faster times
//
also there is a plan b, what to do in case of emergency that has been established / rehearsed
danger in the comfort of sims, that reality will be a harsh punisher, whereas sims just reset
[mood: anyway, vix not as happy]
the levels are now such that 2-way balance is available and situation / context has shifted
fail to test last close gives another lower candle, has been filled since pending re-test
if not then re-visit previous area prior to break, just let things develop and let things close
EOD
about halfway to target on the remainder, set to auto-flatten regardless at close
deciding that holding through close is not really necessary since re-entry during re-open
this seems to be the running model for these props as well, some interesting deals out there
Last Updated on December 19, 2022