20240815 pre market



News
we had data at 8:30
13:10 feds harker (mid time shake out)

Condition 1
Daily continues to climb up
we are above 61.8 and above downtrend line with todays gap

Condition 0
we open with a big gap up on top of an already existing flagpole

Thoughts
while short term inventory is already long this does not mean that the up move has to pause
wait what happens and go for singles and doubles
no need to catch tops or bottoms
use signposts

20240819 pre market



News
09:15 feds waller

Condition 1
otf up

Condition 0
we open near fridays high

Thoughts
The market is otf up
Do not anticipate change
Wait for objective change, e.g. end of otf
In status quo small liquidations are buyable

20240820 pre market



News
13:35 feds bostic
14:45 feds barr
tomorrow fed minutes
thu and fri jackson hole

Condition 1
otf up
v-recovery

Condition 0
open near y h
spend the eth in or above the spike

Thoughts
This v-recovery confirms one of my core believes that the speculative part of the market is very high
for todays daytrading it is the same as yesterday
the market is clearly up
small and medium breaks are buyable - do not buy without a prior break
if a bigger break occurs - watch if that represents a CHANGE OF CONDITION (which is actually otf up)
Do not short before we see a real change
Traders do what works until it doesnt

20240826 pre market



News this week
wed amc nvda
thu job data
fri pce

news today
-

Condition 1
5 day balance
friday inside day

Condition 0
whole eth in upper half of friday
open near fridays high

Thoughts
A test of the top of the balance area is likely
monitor for continuation or lack of
balance rules apply

20240827 pre market



News
10:00 numbers

Condition 1
6 day balance
yesterday look above and fail

Condition 0
open with small gap down

Thoughts
the normal thing would be to explore the other edge of the balance area

20240828 pre market



News
nvda amc

Condition 1
7 day balance area

Condition 0
open in middle of y range and in middle of balance area


Thoughts
I plan only to trade if we visit an edge of the balance ara
expect chop inside of it
nq looks a liitle more intersting (but only a little)

20240829 pre market



News
nvda is down 3,5% after earnings
we had numbers at 8:30
13:00 bond auction
tomorrow inflation numbers

Condition 1
5 day balance area
yesterday look below and fail

Condition 0
gap down with nvda earnings
since then we climb up continuasly

Thoughts
The look below and fail is of course bullish (wyckof would call this "spring")
The caveat is that we are already 1,2% above the onl (oni is long and should balance a bit)

20240830 pre market



News
we had pce
9:45 and 10:00 numbers

Condition 1
9 day very visible balance area

Condition 0
open in the middle of y range and balance area

Thoughts
Expect major chop in the middle
Trading is about what you donīt do

20240903 pre market



News this week
friday nfp and unemployment rate

News today
numbers at 09:45 and 10:00

Condition 1
2+ week balance

Condition 0
eth looked above balance area and failed
we come in clearly lower
but in the middle of fridays range and the bigger balacne area

Thoughts
We have some short momentum from the look above and fail
If we do not get above base of spike, balance rules could bring us lower
Take care, it can be choppy in the middle of the balance area

20240904 pre market



News
-

Condition 1
breaking out of 3 week balance

Condition 0
whole eth is in the price spike

Thoughts
As long as we do not come back in balance this is short term bearish
Rallies to reference points could be sellable if they fail