20250214 pre market



News
10:00 numbers (potential shake out)

Condition 1
Market closed above the triangle line
attemps to breakout

Condition 0
market open near y h

Thoughts
Anything can happen
IF strenght continues go with it
I would not think about change before we see acceptance in y belly

20250218 pre market


News
10:20 feds daly
13:00 feds barr
21:00 trump

Condition 1
we are challenging the upper edge of the larger balance area

Condition 0
open with gap up

Thoughts
market seems to be bullish
smaller shake outs could be buyable

20250219 pre market



News
14:00 fed minutes

Condition 1
2 day balance
yesterday nice excess after shake-out-move below fridays low

Condition 0
eth explored higher but come back in
open in lower half

Thoughts
for now we have a flat consolidation which is bullish
watch yesterdays rth h/l

20250220 pre market



News
10:00 numbers
13:00 bond auction
14:30 feds barr

Condition 1
market is grinding higher

Condition 0
open near y mid

Thoughts
does not feel very strong but the market is fining its way higher
spy closed on ath
until we see a change of this "grinding higher" smaller shake-outs should be buyable

20250221 pre market



News
numbers at 09.45 and 10:00

Condition 1
4 day balance area

Condition 0
open in range and value
>trade later

Thoughts
balance rules apply

20250224 pre market



News
-

Condition 1
trendday down on friday

Condition 0
eth in lower third

Thoughts
market stopped near yearly vwap
last sell offs were very short term
like on any other day the market will
1) move up
2) move down, or
3) find balance and balance
After trenddays we often see some balancing in the beginning

Given that we have overhead supply IF we continue down, this thing could get traction
We will never know and we do not need to
I have no bias
I will watch what happens and wait for some sweetspots

20240225 recap



After fridays trendday down market started bearish and explored lower in a and b
Then we became a little too short and started to be more balanced
Resulted in a almost 100% retracement
Further covering was not able to develop
Bears stayed in control
Resulting in overlapping to lower value
Two trenddays in a row are seldom
More common is to see a MOVE followed by some BALANCING (which is what we saw)

20250225 pre market



News
10:00 numbers
11:45 feds barr
13:00 bond auction

Condition 1
otf down

Condition 0
eth in lower half
open im middle of onr
no reason for early trade

Thoughts
A change of condition 1 occurs not before we take out a daily h
Covering rallys could be sellable after fail

20250225 recap



Similar to day before we had an early downmove
and no real second move
also a covering move was not able to gain traction

2025026 pemarket



News
10:00 numbers
12:00 feds bostic
nvda amc

Condition 1
otf down

Condition 0
eth is grinding in upper third but not able to take out the rth h

Thoughts
For now the otf down was never in danger
Lets see if this changes