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NO trading today... checked the market a couple hours, but gold was moving on a 30ish ticks range and oil had some choppy bear channel range that i didn't like so.. bye for the week.
Monday i am going to setup my combine, as i am going to withdraw all my earned moneys brom ninjatrader broker, leaving a mere 2$ dollars and taking the rest to move to US, Miami. WOAH!!
20-03-17
Instruments: CL
Time frame: 5 min
Indicators: EMA 20
Strategy: Simple R/S and price action analisys
Crude oil (CL)
Trade 1 WTF i was so nervous today as i had that feeling of being judged/watched by the guys at TST.
So yeah my first trade was a stupid trade indeed. Shorted the resistance at 48.95 1 tick below bar 197, which is good for scalp but the environment was very bullish so the entry point was too low even for a scalp, also too close to EMA 20. I should have shorted the resistance instead for a countertrend scalp. I managed to exit in time anyway.
Trade 2 FoMO trade. I was busy and couldn't ride that rally and that dropdown, probably i would have got a good profit from there as breakouts are my favourite setups but well wasn't at PC, instead i got to PC in time to short the Bo of ema and 48.83 support level but resulted in a FBO and i managed to exit BE.
Trade 3
Bought at EMA, bookmap x-ray helps me a lof on taking these kind of trades as i can see levels of liquidity and with how many strenght the price approach them, to use as confirmation of price action only tho. I entered with 1:1 risk, second contract runner thinking that the price would test OTD.
Trade 4
Sames as 3, the only thing i haven't fully considered price action, which would have told me that there were too mayn bear bars and too little bull bars for a strong second attempt to rally to OTD, so FBO and stop at 10 ticks. done for the day, lost 5 ticks plus commissions.
I'm stuck watching the market, got stopped out from a good trade and price resumed right after, got a cautious trade along the middle way.. but since then i coundn't find a entry point for short... i like the way the market its acting but it just doesn't rotate so i cant just.. find the right spot to enter short again. its painfull to watch all that non-profit run away. I am going to risk it all and thats it. Target will be round number 48.00. SL above bar 211 lets see what happens. Hope i have't shorted the bottom. .. I know i am breaking a couple rules here so i might be punished for that: FoMO trade maybe (my rule 6), or trade out of boredom (rule 8).
Actually the price went up so i am going to get punished more likely.
Yes, confirm punished and lost 20 ticks for 2 contracts.
21-03-17
Instruments: CL - GC
Time frame: 5 min
Indicators: EMA 20
Strategy: Simple R/S and price action analisys
Crude oil (CL)
Done for today. lost a shitload of ticks but it is what it is.
Trade 1
Shorted Bar 196 close after the FOMC, thinking the price would drop consistently and it did, but not before to take my SL out to the tick. WOUld have been a monster trade if only i would have put my stop at 60minutes ema 20 but who knew. Lost 10*2 ticks
Trade 2
Pretty unconfident, due to loss streak. Anyway shorted at 48.81 with SL 1 tick above pivot, and move around my target to just 10 ticls with 1 contract.
Trade 3
Biggest loss, risked all HOPING the price would test round level 48.00 at this point, and shorted the bottom and got punished for breaking 2 of my rules. I deserve that. 20*2 ticks loss
Gold (GL)
Trade 1
Shorted 1 tick below bar 199 thinking the price reached his high for the day but i dind't considered the price could transitioning into a consolidation. 10*2 ticks loss.
I am still pretty confident as my edge is around 66%, and normally my targets gets filled so this is just a couple bad days. I have faith on tomorrow to get out of the hole in a couple days, lets see. As for now i feel really like i got
Gotta reduce the position size to 1 contract untill i recover from the losses, and i am thinking to stick to 1 contract untill i am up 1000$, maybe 1500$.
Here i want to leave a couple of statements that hopefully helps me taking better entries in the future, as the price action proved me right but entries were at the wrong level.
1. If i am to buy or sell a retracement, on a still undefined trend but after a big rally or dropdown, should use limit orders and NOT stop orders, or try and buy as close as possible to support and sell as close as possible to resistance.
2. If i am to buy or sell a pullback (and the relative level breakout), on a defined trend, is better to wait and buy or sell as close as possible to the last zone of S/R said the previous low on a bear trend and previous high on a bull trend.
A rule that often works well for me is to focus on 50% retracement and buy or sell around that level.
Allright another bad day and this is the 3rd consecutive red day. Definitely the combine is putting more psychological pressure than my real account and thats just crazy if i think about it. I should recover my control and discipline to rely on my stops and profits.
22-03-17
Instruments: CL - GC - ES
Time frame: 5 min
Indicators: EMA 20
Strategy: Simple R/S and price action analisys
Crude oil (CL)
Trade 1
Bought the close of bar 209 @47.70 but i didn't allowed enought room to the price and it wanted to test EMA before testing 47.92 resistance, too tight SL thats the reason of the lost trade. Lost 7 ticks instead of allowing the price to profit 20.
Trade 2
Insanely afraid ot the price when it ran in my face, betting on the breakout due to bull pressure buildup just below 47.92 resistance, i went long at 47.80 with 20 ticks profit and 12 SL. But didn't wanted to take a loss from a profit so i forced myself out. Shame. 2 ticks profit instead of a monster profit as the price went up 40+ ticks to break HOD and in anormal psychological condition i would have left a runner hit it.
Gold (GL)
Trade 1
Shorted a weak bear signal to test at least EMA and it did but i changed my mind along the way and covered a loss instead of a small but secure profit, again i couldn't resist the price flowing.
S&P 500 (ES)
Trade 1
Shit of a trade, taken in a desperate need of a profit. NO rules, no strategy and a flat 1:1 RR for 2 points. Sold the OTD, thinking it would act as a resistance, no idea why as it never did previous to the entry point. That long tail at bar 229 should have warned me that there where lots of buyers below in fact the price reached the previous low and bounced from there.
Hey man - dont feel bad, i too have struggled with psychology on the combine. for some reason going back to sim mode from trading real $ seems to have negative affects (for me anyways). started doing stupid things, scaling in, not being patient and disciplined. It wast until i started trading my real money again along with the combine that i started to do better.
I read your post saying you are moving to Miami. When are you starting the journey? I am not too far north, in central FL.