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Okay, I am done for the day now. Here's a pic showing how the rest of the afternoon shaped up.
I was stopped out of one of those shorts at the worst possible time, the high tick of the bounce. The exit was according to my rules (inner envelope) so can't really complain, but it's annoying to miss a good move by one tick. It's a game of inches, as they say. Caught another downleg at the next touch of the SMA so a pretty decent day overall.
At this point it's near the close, the move is getting extended, and I don't want to press my luck with any more shorts.
Hope this is helpful to show how these setups play out in real time. I probably won't have time to post this frequently very often.
Worldwary -- nice day, and thanks for the annotated charts.
TempletonPeck -- Is the channel in your chart above made the same way that WW is making his charts (that is, x number of ticks from MA)? If so, what is the name of the channel indicator? I can't seem to re-create WW's channels in NT with the indicators I've seen available.
I use a built-in Moving Average Envelopes indicator for Tradestation. On my YM charts I have three of them up at about 10, 12 and 14 ticks from the SMA.
The key question for today is whether this will be a trend day, or whether the bulk of the selling has already occurred overnight. Watching for signs now.
The first test of the upper envelope reversed right around the outer envelope. On a trend day I'd normally expect the bounces to reverse before that point, so maybe not a classic trend day setup so far. Will watch next test for further signs.
I tried a "probing" short on the next retest of the upper envelope; got stopped out for a loss of 8 ticks.
An uptrend appears to be forming here but based on larger trend, I'm not comfortable with long trades today. Will
be looking for short trades, expecting a retest of the lows.