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I think a big issue is US the trader. If you are mechanical 100% (which even you are not) then yes, but life, kids, travel, illness, values (personal and family), etc.. etc..
I see your point, and yes, you mentioned some generic issues but as a trader you also may find that you like taking longer runs or that you like taking shorter runs and also that changes with the time of day, the time of year, the downgrading of US debt etc..
We are ever-evolving and a structured approach is good, but I think like 'wine', trading gets better with age.
I am happy you have found the perfect pattern for you. It is rare and highly sought after. It is remarkable that you have stuck with the same system for so long and to be commended!
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I have observed that there are a few aspects of the market that change from day to day and can also oscillate in longer-term cycles. For instance:
1. The size of the typical leg of a trend move.
2. The number of major reversal points that occur throughout the day.
3. The tendency of breakouts to fail or to continue in the direction of the breakout.
4. The frequency of "stop runs," where otherwise smooth trend moves are interrupted by reversals that spike down to where stops are likely to be clustered before continuing in the original direction.
...etc. When the market as a whole is trending strongly or has a strong directional bias, these variables might act one way. When the market quiets down and enters consolidation mode, these variables can be expected to act another way. Some of the variables might also evolve independently of the others, such as the "stop run" variable which might change due to the number of traders in a market or due to the influence of HFT algorithms as they learn and develop.
If you have a system that relies on one kind of behavior only, then you can expect to enter "dry spells" as market conditions change. For instance, if you have a breakout trading system, you'll do great when the market is trending strongly with wide range and multiple trend moves per day, but may do poorly when the market is consolidating and rangebound.
I do think that there are some elements of trading that are more universal than others but the details of how the trades should be executed might change over time.
Early morning platform issues kept me out of some of my fav setups. Then price just stalled out most of the morning. I was frustrated a bit by this but not so much it made me press trades. I think I took it in stride and was able to see clearly for the trades I did take.
I got chopped up a bit, I quit at -39 ticks. Took off to go with my wife for a few quick errands and came back to see price just selling off like crazy.
I believe in discipline. Like a daily stop. I got close and I knew I could make money once the fireworks started but I did not give in to the temptation to trade. Once I break discipline on something like a daily stop, I'm finished as a trader.
So I just sat and marked my entries and let it go by. It was tough I must say. At some future point, perhaps I'll have the ability to stop at a daily loss point and then if market conditions change like they did today, resume trading. But I know myself well enough at this point to know this is not an option currently. Its like moving your stops hoping the trade will come back. It doesn't work. If it doesn't work on a trade, why take a chance of falling victim to it on a daily stop which is probably more important anyway?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Its from the movie Kung Fu Panda. Great story about an overweight panda who through a series of comical errors is on a quest to become the "Dragon Warrior" and save his village from the dreaded villain.
The quest to become worthy to open the "Dragon Scroll" which is supposed to reveal the secrets to becoming the worlds greatest kung fu fighter end with the panda opening the scroll and seeing nothing but his reflection.
He becomes disillusioned until he realizes that he can become a kung fu fighter without some secret. He then goes on to fight the villain and save his village.
The moral of the story? There is no secret. Its what's inside that counts.
More or less anyway...
I recommend watching the movie. Its a kids movie but one of my favorites.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Today I just went with the flow. Was up at one point 140 ticks trading one and two lots. Then ninja starting hanging up, chart was dragging behind the dom....executing on a different platform showed me how lagging ninja can be during high volatility. So in the middle of trading, I am emailing back and forth with ninja trader support. They want me to shut down ninja, reinstall, do this and do that. Eventually, I ended up creating a new data base and that seemed to fix the issue.
However, I downloaded InfinityAT and test drove that for a while today. I liked the charting package and the dom a lot but the chart trader feature was hard to use.
Next I have a demo scheduled for CQG as well as a CQG data feed for ninja. Days like today can't happen again.
My emotions today were totally under control. I felt like I was playing a video game with no consequences for losing. Just taking as many of my pattern trades as I could considering the constant battle with ninja. I confess I did cuss ninja a couple of times today!
I suppose I should have quit trading when the ninja issues started. I gave back about a 1/3 of my winnings today and I believe that was primarily a function of being distracted and not giving my full attention to the trading.
All in all, even with the tech issues, I was really pleased with the trading results and with the manner in which I handled the losers and also how I handled the ninja problems.
Tomorrow, will be looking at a slightly less complicated set up. During all the trouble today, I kept reducing the number of charts and indicators on the remaining charts to see if that would help. Turns out I don't think I need some of the stuff I have on my charts. More on that tomorrow.
As a result of the ninja problems, I ended up erasing all my chart notations and after all that, didn't feel like re-creating them from the trade log. So no charts today.
Cheers
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I feel your pain! I know it all too well... I ditched NT for good after 3 instances like that!
But you should be pleased with your trading. Some of my best days have occurred when I just "followed the flow", critical thinking is way overrated! At least once in a while...